A Schwab market update for March 18 goes like this: (Wednesday market open) With a Federal Reserve decision directly ahead and no rate change anticipated, investors mull another hot Producer Price Index (PPI) report and cast a wary eye at crude oil and the Middle East. Headline February PPI spiked 0.7% compared with the 0.3% consensus. Stocks fell after PPI, and crude steadied amid continued Iranian attacks on Gulf states. Wall Street often treads water heading into rate announcements.

The most dire prediction of the approaching stagflationary recession, which is due entirely to the Trump administration, goes like this: Democratic Party strategist James Carville predicted that President Donald Trump’s tenure will end prematurely, stating that Trump is not long for the presidency because “everything that he tries blows up in his face.” In a Politicon video, Carville made a bold forecast about Trump’s political future. Carville stated, “I’m telling you, I think he’s just going to quit next year by this time. I think he’s just going to walk away because the Democrats control the House and the Senate.” Carville characterized Trump’s position as increasingly untenable, saying, “No one’s going to pay attention to him. The fiscal condition of the country is beyond in the ditch. The Iran thing has turned into just a catastrophe of the first order.”

We will gain insight into which problem the Fed sees as worse, because it can either raise interest rates to combat inflation or lower them to combat slowing growth and rising unemployment. Since we have a dual mandate for our Fed, it must, in the context of stagflation, do one or the other, and obviously, it cannot do both.

An often-used definition of a recession is two or more consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. Thus, we are only on the precipice of a recession and looking down, but we have not actually fallen into the gorge.

For those wanting to look at verified growth stocks, consider: IPGP, ACMR, SANM, AEIS, CGNX, FTV, EFXT, GCT, BODI, TBLA, ITEC, SCHL, ENOV, SHIP, DRD, AUGO, and SANM. For dividends and growth, consider: BHP, RNLSY, SHIP, BGS, QUAD, and UGP. For those going short, consider: ADUX, CLDX, QBTS, PONY, and LB. Over the previous three months, the top ETFs were ranked in order from highest to lowest as: PSI, SOXX, IDGT, SOXQ, and SMH. As always, good investing!

The post March 2026 Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

The wage growth rate is down significantly from its near-term peak more than 3 years ago (although it is still positive), according to the Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker. Since peaking at 6.7% in 2022, it has steadily declined to 3.7% in early 2026. Wage growth is an important factor for a number of reasons, including as a component of economic growth and overall inflation.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Current Population Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics and author’s calculations, as of February 15, 2026. Note: October 2025 data not collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Although Trump’s immigration policies have removed workers from the labor force and, depending on the level of unemployment within that group, may have prevented the unemployment rate from rising as fast, it appears there are also fewer jobs available. Thus, the reality is fewer jobs and lower pay. The main reason for this is Trump’s protectionist tariff policies. These same policies are behind the sudden jump in the producer price index (or PPI) to 0.5% in its latest reading. The PPI is forward-looking and represents price increases in the pipeline. By contrast, the consumer price index (CPI) is backward-looking and measures prices from a month or so earlier. The inflationary buildup and slowing growth rate (also recently reported) are consistent with a slowly developing stagflationary recession.

The current administration appears to be on a taxing (tariffs) and spending path that most Democrats would envy. Republicans supporting such policies along with the administrations political posturing reminds one of the politicians supporting France’s Vichy government during WWII that accommodated the Nazi’s. Such politicians could not be said to be on the side of Eisenhower, or in any way be considered Republicans. I guess if you were completely in the dark or totally uninformed you could be like Archie Bunker and praise Herbert Hoover (remember the All in the Family Theme Song) in a way that MAGA “Archie Bunker’s” praise Trump. I think we have to have relatively uniformed people in government to get where we are today. Luckily, the Supreme Court has finally come around and ruled that Trump’s tariffs are unconstitutional. This could be a great help.

Given that we continue to slide downhill economically. We are not yet in recession and investing is still on the table. Going long on growth stocks, one might consider: SANM, ORLA, SNEX, HRMY, EZPW, PAX, HLF, ARW, CRUS, CGEMY, DLX, and FSM. This approach should be accompanied with a build up of cash should a sudden pull-back or sell-off occur. One could also consider some stocks to short: SMR, LB, CCI, REXR, SMA, IRT, ARI, BMI, and ADUR comprise a list of candidates. For those wanting to retire in the distant future, some dividend growth stocks include: TIMB, BNPQY, BTI, CRRFY, MITT, OHI, PLTK, POR, SVNLY, USAC. The top ETFs are: XLI, XLE, XLB, XLU, and XLK. As always, Good Investing!

The post February 2026 Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) Declined in December

Latest Press Release

Updated: Monday, January 12, 2026

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) declined in December to 104.27, from a downwardly revised 104.64 in November. The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for payroll employment. When the Index increases, employment is likely to grow as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the Index indicate that a change in the trend of job gains or losses is about to occur in the coming months.

“The ETI slid further in December, reflecting low labor market confidence in the outlooks for hiring and job-finding,” said Mitchell Barnes, Economist at The Conference Board.

On top of this, Trump added tariffs to pressure some European countries over Greenland. This is like shooting US growth in the foot because it will only add to the headwinds slowing economic growth and labor market hiring. To be clear, we are not yet in a stagflationary recession but in more of an economic slowdown or “mild stagnation.” Inflation may get help from productivity increases in AI and stable oil prices, but this effect will be offset by supply disruptions and cost increases for consumers and producers that result from more tariffs. Also, health care costs are on the increase and will show up in inflation indexes as well. Thus, the stagflation monster is thinking about huffing and puffing at the door while Trump’s better jobs and higher wages have long disappeared from reality.

Within this context I have a few decent stocks and funds to recommend, while at the same time recommending caution and the accumulation of savings to be used during a possible market sell-off. For growth consider: F, PROP, SWKS, AAUC, HTH, ARMN, ADEI, EVER, NXGPY, ANGO, BDTX, TKAMY, FIVN, SKWD, DG, ARRY, TX, AUGO, ARTC, CGAU, KGC, REVG, ILPT, GM and TRUP. For dividends and growth: BNPQY, CRRFY, SUN, F, PAA, TIMB, CTO, MBGYY and SWKS. During the previous three months the ETFs with the highest growth rates were: PSI, SOXX, SOXQ, SMH and KBE.

For those interested in CEFs for income and portfolio growth there are two main categories. For taxable investment portfolios consider: ETB, ETV, ETW, EVT, BXMY, DIAX, QQQX, HTD, PDT, PML and FLC. For tax sheltered portfolios such as 401Ks that are subject to RMDs consider: BTX, BST, BSTZ, NBXG, RLTY, JRS, PGZ, DFG, ZTR, MEGI, HQH, HQL, BME, BMEZ, ECF, BCV, NCV and NCZ. Keep in mind that CEFs tend to preserve there NAVs and will lower their dividends during a recession in order to do so. Also, the market price of a fund can differ from its NAV. All funds suggested are priced at a discount to their NAVs and may tend to increase in value as a result. As always, good investing!

The post January Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

“The US LEI fell again in September, marking a second consecutive decline,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Weakening expectations from consumers and businesses led the overall contraction in the Index. Subindexes that contributed negatively to the LEI were consumer expectations and ISM® New Orders Index, followed by manufacturers’ new orders of consumer goods & materials, initial claims for unemployment Insurance (inverted), and the yield curve. However, stock prices, the Leading Credit Index, and manufacturers’ new orders of nondefense capital goods excl. aircraft did contribute positively to the Index. The LEI suggests slowing economic activity at the end of 2025 and into early 2026, with GDP weakening after strong mid-year consumer spending and Q4 disruptions amid the federal government shutdown. Overall, growth remains fragile and uneven as businesses adjust to tariff changes and softer consumer momentum. The Conference Board expects GDP to expand by 1.8% in 2025, before falling to 1.5% in 2026.” 

Like the post pandemic period when the FED thought that inflation was only transitory and then corrected itself in order to bring inflation down by repeatedly raising the discount rate and Federal Funds rate target, I expect it is wrong again that inflation won’t be another longer-term problem. Most firms have front ran expected tariffs by purchasing inventory before the tariffs hit but are now faced with either contracting margins and falling profits, or they must pass the tariffs on to consumers. On top of that, increasing health care costs will soon show up in the price indexes. The bottom line is that we have a ways to go before we see the end of slower growth and inflation.

I would continue to invest with caution. Some well researched growth, dividend, and ETF recommendations include the following: For growth you should consider: NRDS, HRTG, KGC, KROS, ANIP, CGAU, BVN, NEM, AEM, and AGX. For dividends and growth: CION, CWENA, APAM, CNQ, TIMB, ENGY, PINE, and PSTL. The previous three months saw the following five ETFs greatest percentage gains in market value: PSI, SOXQ, SOXX, SMH, and VHT. The first four ETFs are all in the semiconductor space.

As always, good investing!

The post December Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

As we slowly slide into a more distinctive stagflationary scenario resulting from an internal supply-side shock caused by increased tariffs, the Fed is increasingly uncertain as to whether it should focus on the deteriorating economy through interest rate cuts, or the increasing inflationary outlook through interest rate increases. Recently, it has focused on the deteriorating economy while at the same time lamenting it’s inability to simultaneously address tariff caused inflation. (By contrast, the Fed can directly fight a demand-side induced, deflationary recession by decreasing rates and increasing the money-supply.)

Given the weakened state of the economy caused by Trump’s tariffs and the resulting supply-chain disruptions, it appears best to generally stay invested to capture any possible market upside while simultaneously reducing downside exposure. The rationale is that we cannot say with certainty the the market is in an overbought or AI bubble, but recent NVIDIA earnings suggests that the AI bubble worries may be a bit overblown. Instead, the psychological FOMO phenomena is probably the mistake most investors should concern themselves with. Instead of FOMO investing, the action to take now is to gradually begin rotating out of your aggressive holdings in equities and any investments that use high amounts of leverage. Also, consider rotating into investment grade fixed income investments and increasing your cash balances. For cash balances, I would suggest a fund like BOXX, for example.

If you still want to buy equities, focus on those that are highly rated such as: ARMN, TREE, SANM, CRMD, SNDK, NRDS, UNFI, HRTG, and KROS, for example. For those wanting solid investments with dividend growth, consider: CION, TIMB, AEG, APAM, BAP, LAZ, PINE, and POR. For those wanting to know the 5 best performing ETFs over the previous three months, this list is comprised of: SHOC, SMH, VHT, XLV, and PTF. As always, good investing!

The post November Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

Because I have a Ph.D. in economics and a much vaster knowledge base in the areas of this subject, I can make predictions that will happen in the future with a high degree of accuracy. Also, since cause and effect happen with considerable lags most of my predictions refer to around six to twelve months in the future. So, if you want to know the current state of the economy, just read what I said six to twelve months in the past. Tariffs (taxes) have led, as predicted, to increasing inflation and decreasing growth, or “stagflation.” That is why the Fed remains so cautious and states that focusing on either inflation or the wobbly labor market has risks going forward. The Fed can only fight a demand side recession that, because of a reduction in consumer spending, is both deflationary and has a declining GDP. Simply increasing the money supply, signaled by decreasing the discount rate, remedies the situation . . . but with a lag, of course. Trump’s tariffs cause a supply-side or supply-chain disruption that leads to both stagnation or slowing growth and rising unemployment and inflation. If the Fed targets unemployment buy lowering rates it makes inflation worse. If the Fed targets inflation by raising rates it make unemployment worse. If Trump succeeds in pressuring the Fed for lower rates, we will most certainly face much higher inflation. This will lead to higher, not lower, long term interest rates and less domestic investment as a result. There is no simple serendipitous scenario credited to the simpletons who think that if Trump just gets his way we will be better off.

On a different topic. Trump’s narcissistic personality disorder is characterized by, among other things, a strong proclivity to respond positively to praise and react very negatively to criticism. His personality disorder makes him subject to manipulation by Putin who praises him and to an inability to handle any kind of criticism or negative news. Thus, his decisions seem irrational when, instead, the are the result of a disorder. Investors will have to take Trump’s personality disorder into consideration as it could lead to much greater uncertainty going forward. Investors in gold have already done this. You should to. For example, I would strongly consider a fund like IAUI as a way to generate income and take advantage of Trump’s personality disorder through rising gold prices. As always, good investing!

The post September Update first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

Election cycle theory suggests that the negative effects of Trump’s tariff policy will not fully set in until the beginning of next year. Thus, we can expect that the stock market will remain on relatively steady footing until then. On the other hand, Trump’s fight with Fed chair Powell has some very negative ramifications. First, Fed policy independence is being threatened by Trump. Firing Powell would send the stock market into turmoil and could cause a complete collapse in the short-run. The longer run is a bit more complicated but rests on the fact that the ECB just decided to keep interest rates the same due to tariff uncertainty.

In the U.S., Fed chair Powell has also kept interest rate reductions on hold due to tariff uncertainty and the increase in the inflation rate that is already underway due to tariffs. Trump still thinks he wants lower rates, however. Here is what happens if Trump gets his way. The Fed only controls short-term rates via the discount rate that it sets directly and the targeted federal funds rate. The discount rate is the interest rate the Fed charges member banks that need to borrow cash reserves to meet their legal reserve requirements on checking deposits. The slightly lower federal funds rate is the overnight rate charged by banks that want to lend their excess reserves to other banks to meet their reserve requirements. Lowering the discount rate causes the Fed to increase excess reserves or monetary liquidity into the banking system so as to reduce the targeted federal funds rate. More liquidity, in turn, pushes up prices and the inflation rate.

In the bond market, the real return on a bond is the nominal interest rate received by the bond holder minus the expected inflation rate. When the expected inflation rate increases due to lower short-term interest rates and increased monetary liquidity, bond holders must demand higher nominal rates so as to maintain the same real return on bonds. Consequently, existing bond holders will tend to sell their existing bonds and drive up the nominal interest rate. This happens because bond values and their corresponding nominal interest rates are inversely related. Thus, short-term rate reductions will increase interest rate expectations and longer term market interest rates in the bond market.

Some consequences of higher longer term interest rates are less private investment by home purchasers and corporations. This will increase unemployment along with the higher inflation rates. I think this is just the opposite of what Trump wants, but it just means that Trump does not understand basic economics.

Given that the economy is threatened by both tariff and monetary policy risks but effected positively by election cycle theory, one can make the argument for investing cautiously until 2026. Some growth stocks to consider are: APEI, PAAS, AU, HMY, KROS, KGC, STKL, B, and FUTU. Dividend growth stocks include: ACRE, APAM, BSET, CRGY, KGS, PAGP, TROW, VOD, and ARLP. For the previous three months, the five fastest growing ETFs were: SMHX, SHOC, SMH, TRFK, and FTEC. As always, good investing!

The post July 2025 Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

Thus, the Republican lies about a short-term disruption analogous to a kitchen remodel are very far from the the truth. Instead, it will be more like demolishing your house and replacing it with one that resembles the house in Christmas Story. You will need the smaller closets because clothing imports are also being taxed. It will replace your cars with just one very expensive 3000 SUX made by the UAW that earns a black spot in Consumer Reports for crash worthiness and reliability. Unfortunately, the tariffs won’t cause assault weapons to be replaced by Red Rider BB guns, otherwise I’d be somewhat more enthusiastic. In the meantime, I wouldn’t invest in the stock market. A global recession is not the appropriate circumstance for that.

April 7: Park cash funds: BOXX, USFR, ICSH, JPST, and SGOV. An investment grade CLO that will lose little and has low credit risk is JAAA. It also pays decently. A stable value money market fund is SWVXX which is always worth $1.00, pays over 4%, and is completely tradable. CEF hedges for inflation include: CEF, GLD, and RLY. Good NOT investing!

April 21: If Trump succeeds in replacing the Fed Chair Powel with a crony who will lower the discount rate and increase the money supply, tariff induced inflation will become extremely bad. This will cause real assets that hold their value relative to devalued dollars to skyrocket in value. Holding funds such as CEFS, GLD and RLY or buying real estate would be the best ways to play that scenario.

April 28: By Hari Kishan

BENGALURU (Reuters) -Risks are high that the global economy will slip into recession this year, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll, in which scores said U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs have damaged business sentiment.

Just three months ago, the same group of economists covering nearly 50 economies had expected the global economy to grow at a strong, steady clip.

But Trump’s push to reshape world trade by imposing tariffs on all U.S. imports has sent shockwaves through financial markets, wiping out trillions of dollars in stock market value, and shaken investors’ confidence in U.S. assets, including the dollar, as a safe haven.

While Trump has suspended the heaviest tariffs imposed on almost all trading partners for a few months, a 10% blanket duty remains, as well as a 145% tariff on China, the United States’ largest trading partner.   Continue reading

“It’s hard enough for firms to think about July right now where they don’t know what the reciprocal tariffs are. Try and plan another year down the road. I mean, who knows what it looks like, let alone five years down the road,” said James Rossiter, head of global macro strategy at TD Securities.

The post April 2025 Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

Because consumers tend to vote with their wallets, this recession and associated inflation will last only until the next election. Effectively, the next election is how we will transition out of the recession. The short-run payoff to any domestic production increases in inefficient import-competing industries will limit any investment or job creation and so there will be little or no transition in that manner. Instead, we will suffer only higher prices and higher unemployment caused by the current administration’s tariff policies until the next election arrives.

For those wanting to risk investment during the insuring recession, consider the following stocks for growth: PGR, ATNI, ULCC, TCBX, CRDO, MEC, MD, and EAT. For dividends and growth, consider: CALM, BIP, BMO, CRGY, PR, and SU. The only two ETFs eking out positive growth over the previous three months were XLV and VHT. Here comes the recession, so good luck!

The post March 2025 Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

The FED is on hold with interest rate cuts because of policy uncertainty. The biggest area of policy uncertainty involves the potential for Trump tariffs to cause increased inflation and, because of tariff retaliation, to also cause a reduction in economic activity and earnings growth. An internally caused supply-side shock would revisit us with something like the covid-19 pandemic if it is short-lived or possibly the much more prolonged oil-supply shocks such as the mid 70s or early 80s. A longer-run economic downturn could also result from the attempt to achieve short-run economic gains through destructive long-run environmental policies. In the short-run, environmental destruction can reduce business costs but in the long-run it increases them.

The policy uncertainty is somewhat offset by our high dollar value in international financial markets that makes imports cheaper. It is also true that we are a large nation that can adversely effect international prices through tariffs. Still, no one knows exactly how tariffs might be implemented, or even if they will. Moreover, any short-run gains achieved through environmental destruction might increase growth and profits enough to offset the negative effects of tariffs. In sum, there is no clear outlook for the economy.

Given this type of investment outlook, some recommendations for growth include stocks such as: EAT, BMRN, UAL, RIGL, AVO, SEZL, GME, HCP, TRUP, and JKS. For dividends and growth: BBHR, EQNR, MNR, SON, and TXO. Over the previous 3 months, the top ETFs were: SKYY, FDN, PNQI, SLC, and VFH. We are steaming ahead in the fog so it may be better to keep some powder dry and invest cautiously. Predictions are all over the place.

The post January 2025 Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.