As we slowly slide into a more distinctive stagflationary scenario resulting from an internal supply-side shock caused by increased tariffs, the Fed is increasingly uncertain as to whether it should focus on the deteriorating economy through interest rate cuts, or the increasing inflationary outlook through interest rate increases. Recently, it has focused on the deteriorating economy while at the same time lamenting it’s inability to simultaneously address tariff caused inflation. (By contrast, the Fed can directly fight a demand-side induced, deflationary recession by decreasing rates and increasing the money-supply.)

Given the weakened state of the economy caused by Trump’s tariffs and the resulting supply-chain disruptions, it appears best to generally stay invested to capture any possible market upside while simultaneously reducing downside exposure. The rationale is that we cannot say with certainty the the market is in an overbought or AI bubble, but recent NVIDIA earnings suggests that the AI bubble worries may be a bit overblown. Instead, the psychological FOMO phenomena is probably the mistake most investors should concern themselves with. Instead of FOMO investing, the action to take now is to gradually begin rotating out of your aggressive holdings in equities and any investments that use high amounts of leverage. Also, consider rotating into investment grade fixed income investments and increasing your cash balances. For cash balances, I would suggest a fund like BOXX, for example.

If you still want to buy equities, focus on those that are highly rated such as: ARMN, TREE, SANM, CRMD, SNDK, NRDS, UNFI, HRTG, and KROS, for example. For those wanting solid investments with dividend growth, consider: CION, TIMB, AEG, APAM, BAP, LAZ, PINE, and POR. For those wanting to know the 5 best performing ETFs over the previous three months, this list is comprised of: SHOC, SMH, VHT, XLV, and PTF. As always, good investing!

The post November Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

Because I have a Ph.D. in economics and a much vaster knowledge base in the areas of this subject, I can make predictions that will happen in the future with a high degree of accuracy. Also, since cause and effect happen with considerable lags most of my predictions refer to around six to twelve months in the future. So, if you want to know the current state of the economy, just read what I said six to twelve months in the past. Tariffs (taxes) have led, as predicted, to increasing inflation and decreasing growth, or “stagflation.” That is why the Fed remains so cautious and states that focusing on either inflation or the wobbly labor market has risks going forward. The Fed can only fight a demand side recession that, because of a reduction in consumer spending, is both deflationary and has a declining GDP. Simply increasing the money supply, signaled by decreasing the discount rate, remedies the situation . . . but with a lag, of course. Trump’s tariffs cause a supply-side or supply-chain disruption that leads to both stagnation or slowing growth and rising unemployment and inflation. If the Fed targets unemployment buy lowering rates it makes inflation worse. If the Fed targets inflation by raising rates it make unemployment worse. If Trump succeeds in pressuring the Fed for lower rates, we will most certainly face much higher inflation. This will lead to higher, not lower, long term interest rates and less domestic investment as a result. There is no simple serendipitous scenario credited to the simpletons who think that if Trump just gets his way we will be better off.

On a different topic. Trump’s narcissistic personality disorder is characterized by, among other things, a strong proclivity to respond positively to praise and react very negatively to criticism. His personality disorder makes him subject to manipulation by Putin who praises him and to an inability to handle any kind of criticism or negative news. Thus, his decisions seem irrational when, instead, the are the result of a disorder. Investors will have to take Trump’s personality disorder into consideration as it could lead to much greater uncertainty going forward. Investors in gold have already done this. You should to. For example, I would strongly consider a fund like IAUI as a way to generate income and take advantage of Trump’s personality disorder through rising gold prices. As always, good investing!

The post September Update first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

Thus, the Republican lies about a short-term disruption analogous to a kitchen remodel are very far from the the truth. Instead, it will be more like demolishing your house and replacing it with one that resembles the house in Christmas Story. You will need the smaller closets because clothing imports are also being taxed. It will replace your cars with just one very expensive 3000 SUX made by the UAW that earns a black spot in Consumer Reports for crash worthiness and reliability. Unfortunately, the tariffs won’t cause assault weapons to be replaced by Red Rider BB guns, otherwise I’d be somewhat more enthusiastic. In the meantime, I wouldn’t invest in the stock market. A global recession is not the appropriate circumstance for that.

April 7: Park cash funds: BOXX, USFR, ICSH, JPST, and SGOV. An investment grade CLO that will lose little and has low credit risk is JAAA. It also pays decently. A stable value money market fund is SWVXX which is always worth $1.00, pays over 4%, and is completely tradable. CEF hedges for inflation include: CEF, GLD, and RLY. Good NOT investing!

April 21: If Trump succeeds in replacing the Fed Chair Powel with a crony who will lower the discount rate and increase the money supply, tariff induced inflation will become extremely bad. This will cause real assets that hold their value relative to devalued dollars to skyrocket in value. Holding funds such as CEFS, GLD and RLY or buying real estate would be the best ways to play that scenario.

April 28: By Hari Kishan

BENGALURU (Reuters) -Risks are high that the global economy will slip into recession this year, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll, in which scores said U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs have damaged business sentiment.

Just three months ago, the same group of economists covering nearly 50 economies had expected the global economy to grow at a strong, steady clip.

But Trump’s push to reshape world trade by imposing tariffs on all U.S. imports has sent shockwaves through financial markets, wiping out trillions of dollars in stock market value, and shaken investors’ confidence in U.S. assets, including the dollar, as a safe haven.

While Trump has suspended the heaviest tariffs imposed on almost all trading partners for a few months, a 10% blanket duty remains, as well as a 145% tariff on China, the United States’ largest trading partner.   Continue reading

“It’s hard enough for firms to think about July right now where they don’t know what the reciprocal tariffs are. Try and plan another year down the road. I mean, who knows what it looks like, let alone five years down the road,” said James Rossiter, head of global macro strategy at TD Securities.

The post April 2025 Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

Because consumers tend to vote with their wallets, this recession and associated inflation will last only until the next election. Effectively, the next election is how we will transition out of the recession. The short-run payoff to any domestic production increases in inefficient import-competing industries will limit any investment or job creation and so there will be little or no transition in that manner. Instead, we will suffer only higher prices and higher unemployment caused by the current administration’s tariff policies until the next election arrives.

For those wanting to risk investment during the insuring recession, consider the following stocks for growth: PGR, ATNI, ULCC, TCBX, CRDO, MEC, MD, and EAT. For dividends and growth, consider: CALM, BIP, BMO, CRGY, PR, and SU. The only two ETFs eking out positive growth over the previous three months were XLV and VHT. Here comes the recession, so good luck!

The post March 2025 Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

Weakening the aggregated demand-side of the economy through higher short-term interest rates comes with risks. If the economy slows too much or too fast, a hard landing in the form of a recession could occur. Thus, at some point, the Fed has to put increasing weight on the labor market slowdown and a corresponding increase in the unemployment rate. With inflation coming down more significantly and unemployment finally, but grudgingly, inching upwards it looks more and more like the Fed will have to pivot and start lowing the short-term rates that it controls. The Fed controls its discount rate directly and the Federal Funds rate indirectly. The discount rate is the rate set by the Fed on loans money to member banks. The Federal Funds rate is a market determined overnight rate that member banks loan money to each other to meet their reserve requirements. The Federal Funds rates tends to be a little lower than the discount rate.

I expect the Fed to make this policy pivot sooner rather than later. This is because the Fed’s data is historical rather than contemporaneous and that could produce a Fed policy decision that is too late to avoid a recession — just as it was too late to avoid inflation when they started increasing rates. Chairman Powel seems increasingly likely to want to avoid being late twice in a row. Moreover, the market appears to expect this pivot as exemplified by small cap stocks, that are relatively more effected by greater leverage costs at higher interest rates, finally beginning to pick up steam.

Given this, some growth stocks to consider include: HRB, NOK, PYPL, AGS, VLRS, SPOT, VEOEY, BTMD, EGO, AMZN, ANF, GCT, CHEY, and RNG. Dividend growth stocks to look at include: NEP, NWL, TEF, TROW, and TXO. Over the previous three months, the fastest growing ETFs were: SMH, SOXQ, FTXL, SOXX, and XSD.

The post July 2024 Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

As the IMF (and I) have pointed out:

• this is not a conventional cycle, and 12 months on, immaculate disinflation is now the baseline. The global economy has been hit by a series of shocks in recent years, making it very difficult to decipher the underlying drivers of inflation. But as we’ve moved through the cycle, it is apparent that these shocks are largely to blame. This is supported by a recent ECB paper, which concludes that ‘the dynamics of core prices…are mostly explained by supply chain disruption shocks and to a lesser extent by adverse energy supply shocks.’
• It thus follows that as the impact of these shocks have dissipated, so too have inflationary price pressures, irrespective of the demand-side environment. The result: immaculate disinflation.
• As central banks can do little to control supply-side inflation, why aren’t they cutting rates already? There is a channel through which supply side dynamics can support persistently higher inflation, via expectations, pushing wages higher. But even here, there is little evidence to suggest this is happening (indeed, it has never really been a major risk).

So, essentially the Fed has had zero effect on inflation and demand side management has neither decreased inflation or increased unemployment, indicating that there is absolutely no Phillips curve relationship in the economy. The Fed’s only concerns are its own credibility and inflationary expectations . . . neither of those appear to exist either. Moreover, the PCE core and overall indices indicate that the Fed’s inflationary target of 2% is essentially met (by supply-side economic effects only).

The Fed’s real problem is that bonds start maturing and rolling off its balance sheet at a much faster rate very soon. The Treasury must finance government debt by refinancing these matured bonds at higher rates. Selling them to the public is what reduces the money supply, such as M2. Projections show an increasingly faster (negative second derivative) rate in the near future.

As the IMF points out: But elevated borrowing cost will continue to constrain activity and result in sub-trend growth through the next few years, as central banks retain a relatively restrictive policy stance. The IMF forecast 1.5% growth across advanced economies in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025, both below the 2015-19 average of 2.1%. While policy rates will come down over the next few years, reducing debt servicing costs, and boosting credit growth across households and businesses, this recovery will be more slow-burn than pan-sear.

As the money supply continues to decrease and interest rates are pushed upward, the Fed has no other recourse than to start reducing interest rates and begin monetizing the new Treasury issued debt. It must do this to keep interest rates from rising too much and too fast. This takes us back to the George W. Bush tax cuts in 2001 and a Fed forced to keep interest rates low by monetizing the mounting debt. This lead to bursting stock market and housing asset bubbles in 2008. So buckle up and get ready. The next 10 years could very well be predictable.

In the mean time, I have some stocks to consider: OII, MOD, PPC, LRN, and PLAB for growth. For growth and income: RITM, AMBP, TIMB, and PAX. During the previous 3 months, the top ETFs were: SMH, SOXX, SOXQ, IGPT, and WCLD.

The S&P 500 currently sports a relative strength index of over 70, which means it is oversold. Get ready for another stock market pull back as things are a bit too heated at the moment. For those interested in parking money, consider some T-bill (BTL) alternatives such as BOXX, TFLO, and JAAA. As always, good investing!

The post February 2024 Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

The Fed rate hike and attack phase pause is a positive. Another short-term positive is the only about 25% of stocks remain below their 200 day moving average which is broad-based and bullish. When only 25% of stocks are above their 200 day moving average bullish market breadth is very narrow and bareish. This is usually a good time to buy. But it could turn out to be a bear market rally that soon turns sour.

The reason why the market could turn is that most economic indicators are rather weak. If either the labor market or consumer confidence change for the negative, a recession is guaranteed. Because the Fed failed to attack inflation directly and, because as Mayur Thaker of Zacks Weekly Market Analyses, 6 November, 2023 states “. . . remains steadfast in keeping short end rates higher for longer, and as both S&P and Fitch Ratings downgraded US credit ratings, the 2yr-10yr UST spread has been rapidly steepening, primarily driven by a rising 10-year yield—often called a ‘bear steepener’. Moody’s recently warned of further credit rating cuts on the US if the government shuts down later next month.

. . . It remains possible that long rates actually increase due to the perception of increasing credit risk. Some 31% of all Treasury debt outstanding is set to mature in the coming 12 months, and with a large and burgeoning $2 trillion budget deficit—or 8% of GDP, highest in 60 years—that the US government will have to refinance at significantly higher rates partially due to the notable absence of buyers at the Federal Reserve and China this time around.”

Thaker continues, “. . . The effects of high nominal and real yields together for an extended period of time, including the possibility of even higher yields in the near future, will exert extraordinary pressure on economic decision-making at the margin and tilt us toward recession.” Which will be made worse after a long-period of the Fed weakening the economy. “. . . Although the Fed is clear they are okay with a mild to moderate recession so long as they achieve their objective of inflation sustainably around 2%,” I would argue that the mild recession may become much worse.

Thacker adds that, “. . . We can now confidently add higher bond yields due to rising credit risk to the list of market headwinds, which include negative real retail sales, declining weekly hours, manufacturing in recession, large negative revisions to jobs, leading economic indicators in recession, banks under duress, rising defaults, delinquencies and bankruptcies.”

I think the bottom line is a short-run stock rally. But throwing a monster anchor of debt on a weakened economy that appears now more like a tired swimmer will not produce the results anybody wants. Ultimately, this may very likely become a huge Fed or government failure that will be extremely difficult for the market economy to endure.

And, I’ll add one more caveat: Let’s be smart an not add a Trump disaster to the mix.

On that note, consider the following growth stocks as likely to produce positive results over the next 1 – 3 months: PBF, BHC, MTK, GWRE, OCUP, QRTEA, CXM, PODD, VITL, ASUR, VEOEY, ACDVF, FUTU, ACGL. For dividends and growth over the next 1 – 3 months: GPS, ISNPY, LPG, HRZN, NNGRY, UUGRY, AY, BBY. Over the last 3 months, which the stock market has been largely down, the 5 top ETFs with positive to zero gains and listed from high to low include: IEO, XLK, IGV, IYW, and IGPT. As always, good investing!

The post November Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

During the second half of this year the stock market should begin a recovery. Watch for tech stocks, consumer discretionary stocks, and small cap stocks to begin a rally first. Hopefully, you have bought some stocks and funds cheap and can hang on for the bounce. The bounce, in turn, could become another long lasting bull market.

Of course, we still have to worry about the Fed and interest rate hikes, but those should be winding down towards little or nothing. Throughout the rate hikes, the labor market has remained relatively strong as has consumer spending. Even though GDP has remained positive, consumer expectations are quite negative. If this leads to reduced spending, a mild recession can be expected because consumer expenditures comprise about 70% of aggregate demand. On the other hand, an additional reason to be optimistic at this point is that stock markets tend to begin rallies prior to the bottoming of a recession.

Some growth oriented stocks to consider include: KBAL, IDCC, PNNT, GPK, DBX, META, TIM, NTCT, DY, GRBK, MSTR, DBX, and BCSF. Dividend and growth (including dividend growth) can be obtained from the likes of: MDC, PNNT, SBGI, APAM, SUN, TIM, TSCDY, UPBD, IIPR, and ETD. During the last 3 months, the top ETFs were: IGV, PSJ, XLY, KSW, and WCLD. Not surprisingly, these ETFs are already pointing towards the potential in the tech and consumer discretionary sectors.

The light at the end of a long and gloomy tunnel lies ahead. Good investing!

The post May 2023 Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

Sector sell-offs and volatility will continue and present excellent opportunities to buy stocks and funds that have been hammered. The volatility is mainly due to declining business earnings and weaker outlooks for future earnings that cause PE ratios to become too high as well as declining consumer expenditures and a slightly weaker job market. At the present time, the most hammered areas are consumer discretionary, banks, and tech stocks, including semi-conductors. Fund areas such as REITs, tax exempt muni’s that are leveraged, tech funds, financial funds, and funds with long-term fixed interest rates will now be among the best areas in which to cherry-pick. This is because these areas suffered the most under the Fed’s rising interest rate policy. Avoid defensive areas such as utilities and consumer defensives because when most investors are afraid of risky-equities they will flock to the defensive areas and bid up prices, leaving no room for additional capital gains.

The one exception that I could find in the utilities sector is an the under valued fund MEGI. This is also a really good fund you should consider buying.

For a tax-sheltered regular IRA that allows you to buy funds and avoid paying taxes on capital gains –unless you take them out, I would look at RQI, IGR, BSTZ, BIGZ, BMEZ, and WDI for example. For a non-tax sheltered investment portfolio that will require you to report any and all capital gains regardless of whether you take them out I’d consider EXG and ETB, and possibly ETJ in the Eaton Vance group as well as others funds such as FTC and PTA. Just remember to avoid making very many trades resulting in capital gains in your non-tax sheltered investment portfolios. Adding to tax exempt muni’s could include funds such as IQI, IIM, PML, PMX, MAV, and OIA. These are the types of funds and accounts that I have. Living on the dividends is kind of like having your own money tree. Moreover, CEF fund rotation among similar funds limits the downside in portfolio values, increases shares and yields among funds, and causes the “money tree” to continuously grow.

For those interested in growth stocks, consider: ASC, DFIN, HROW, SE, OSUR, ASUR, and ACLX. For dividends and growth: ASC, CVI, DAC, SVC, EPD, RUTH, TPVG, IIPR, CRARY, and GSBD. Over the preceding three months, the top three ETFs were: IGV, SLY, and VCR. I’d expect these three ETFs to continue performing well into the near future. Good Investing!

The post April 2023 Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

January was great, but . . . “Typically, as January goes so does the year.” Such is the rule of thumb and common belief. Stock prices went up while earnings and earnings expectations are going in the opposite direction. P/E ratios are going up as a consequence. So for how long can that last? The underlying problem is that what started as a “transitory” supply-chain bottleneck due to the pandemic has now turned into a long-run beat down of supply-side production due to higher interest rates and borrowing costs. Less plant and equipment and fewer jobs, both supply-side constraints, are the result. True, aggregated demand is the main Fed target, but monetary policy is not a rifle, it is a wide spread blast instead. Already, this is showing up through steadily declining PMI’s. The implication: take profits and build cash now.

Areas that might due well throughout 2023 include municipal bonds, including bond fund CEFs such as: PMF, EIM, EVN, and MAV. Another area is O & G, but for a more limited time. Some CEFs in this area are FEN, FEI, FIF and FPL. Lastly, REITS were hit hard last year and may fair somewhat better this year. Consider: RLTY, PGZ, RQI, JRS, NRO, and AWP for example.

For those wanting individual growth stock picks, consider: PTEM, SSL, CASY, BAESY, HP, XPRO, PEN, CALM, BDROY, and ADM. For dividends and growth: ET, KT, NRG, SB, and ENLC should work. The best ETFs over the last 3 months were: SOCL, SMH, PSI, PNQI and CTEX. As always, good investing!

The post February Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.