Leading economic indicators — a more objective predictor of future economic activity — forecast continued economic growth and stability through the rest of this year. This doesn’t rule out a correction in the markets though. Yet, it doesn’t seem reasonable to worry all that much about it. Pick stocks and funds that are still doing well within the context of market highs and generally sideways trading and you can still produce portfolio gains. That said, consider the stocks KSS, ZIM, ITOCY, AOSL, CVLG, BVH, TMST, NEXA, ABG, PAG, LAD, GPI, and WIRE for growth. For dividends, take a look at AGNC, NLY, LUMN, and APAM. The 5 top performing ETFs at this time are: IYH, XLV, VHT, VIG, and DGRO.

Recently I moved some cash in my BLOCKFI account into Bitcoin, Lite Coin, and Ethereum. So far, this momentum trade appears to be working out quite well. I don’t expect to hold these positions for ever but do see the potential for quick gains before switching back to cash at 8% and then holding that until another momentum trade opportunity arises.

Until next time, Good Investing!

The post August Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

These examples of negative consequences are analogues to those resulting from Pres. Trump’s Trade war. The only benefit is to keep China from stealing our technology. The downside is that trade protections promote domestic monopolies such as the UAW. The UAW single handedly caused the bankruptcy of two major US automobile manufacturers during the Great Depression and caused the entire city of Detroit to collapse economically. Free trade, on the other hand, erodes the power of monopoly sellers such as the UAW. Thus, NAFTA was a better trade policy than the USMCA negotiated by Donald Trump. USMCA simply bolsters the UAWs monopoly power. Trump’s trade protections have also caused an increase in trucking bankruptcies, decreased nternational shipping, and increased the hardship among dockworkers because of the reduction of exports and imports. Industrial production, investment in building and equipment, and GDP growth are also down significantly. Moreover, the FEDs balance sheet is once again increasing. Only consumers and the labor market appear to be doing well. Unfortunately, as indicated in my previous post, this is due only to the increased inefficiency brought about by the reduction of international specialization on the basis of comparative advantage and free trade.

In spite of the negatives, Pres. Trump is now forced to propel the stock market upwards because of the election cycle. This should mean the opposite of the trade war escalation of 2018 that punished the economy and the stock market. So long as trade tensions are reduced, the economy will not slip into a recession. I don’t believe that Trump will negotiate a much better trade deal with China, however. His initial trade agreement is rather weak as it gives up specific tariffs for ambiguous and unenforceable promises. I expect that the Chinese will appear cooperative at first but there is zero basis for trusting them. Instead of tariff protections and a trade war that results in the inefficiency of protectionism, the better policy would be to place capital export restrictions and disincentives upon investment and production inside China. These could be coupled with incentives for capital export and production in friendlier countries such as Mexico. Unfortunately, the Trump administration doesn’t see the benefit of economic development in Mexico that would reduce illegal migration by capitalizing on Mexico’s comparative advantage from highly productive and cheaper labor. Instead, Pres. Trump only recognizes the apparent yet illusory gains from protectionism and greater inefficiency.

Given that the risk of recession for the foreseeable future remains low (as does the outlook for beneficial presidential policies or agreements) some highly ranked stocks that are expected to deliver growth for the next 30 – 90 days include: IMPUY, SEM, BERY, LAD, ABG. EVRI. PPC, and ATSG. Dividend growth stocks for this same period include: BMA, MBT, PHI, BBBY, DTEGY, LM, PDCO, SWM, TX, ABBV, OPI, and VGR. Currently, the best performing ETFs are XLK, XLI, and XLP. Keep in mind that the likelihood of a sudden stock correction from the current overbought level remain high. Otherwise, I wish you Good investing!

The post January 2020 Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

Tariffs on Mexico that would go in effect on June 12 will be bad for Mexico, US companies staying competitive by operating in Mexico and the stock market, dovish Fed or not. Estimates of the cost of tariffs on consumers is now twice as much as the benefit from the tax cuts. This erodes any net gains from all positive supply-side policies (deregulation and tax cuts) already enacted. Global growth forecasts have decreased substantially as a result. The ensuing recession is not yet near, but should not come as a surprise when it occurs.

In the meantime, the Titanic is still afloat. The typical June bounce should be good for a few more days and maybe until June 12th or so. Long stocks to consider are EGAN, NOA, MBUU, ENVA, and TGH. Dividend growth stocks are BKEP, BBBY, EVC, PAA, PAGP, and PUK. The best ETFs are consumer staples (defensives): XLP, FSTA, and UDC. And this is the way it is, June 5, 2019. Good luck!

Week 2 (June 10 – 14):

JPMorgan warns of a ‘Trump Recession.’ “The trade war has so far offset all benefits of fiscal stimulus and, if continued, may lead to global recession,” wrote Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan’s global head of quantitative and derivatives strategy. “If this recession materializes, historians might call it the ‘Trump recession’ given that it would be largely caused by the trade war initiative.”

The underlying reason for predicting a recession is that Pres. Trump does not understand foreign trade. He is an isolationist and wants tariffs for any reason. He actually stated that his tariffs produce a comparative advantage in trade. This statement reflects his ignorance. Comparative advantage results from having the lowest opportunity cost for a given exported good or service. There are two different causes, either of which is sufficient. First, endowments of minerals, oil, low-cost and productive labor, or land suitable for given crops, etc. vary from country to county. Second, know-how and technology in production vary greatly from country to country. For example, Arkansas has a lot of hard-pan land for growing rice and the best rice growing technology in the world. Consequently, Arkansas has tow sources of comparative advantage resulting in the lowest unit cost of rice in the world which allows it to export rice at a high profit. Moreover, many if not most rice producers in Arkansas are millionaires. Thus, wages by themselves do not explain comparative advantage. Unfortunately, Trump’s tariffs which lead to retaliation make it less profitable and more difficult for Arkansas to export rice. In other words, Trump’s tariffs have decreased Arkansas rice growing comparative advantage, reduced wealth and economic activity related to growing rice, and made Arkansas rice producers worse off. Similar negative effects from Trump tariffs are spreading far and wide among many other producers as well.

If Trump had put tariffs on Mexico into effect on Monday the markets would have sold off dramatically. There was little gained from threatening them and the harm done to US manufacturers using high bang-per-buck (productivity divided by wages) Mexican labor to stay competitive, such as the automobile industry, would be disastrous.

Instead of tariffs that risk recession because they are nothing more than chopping a whole in the other end of a canoe, the ban on doing business with Huawei is the route the Trump administration should take with any high tech US firm doing business in China. That is, just ban US high tech firms from doing business in China. China is a communist country and as such must steal technology. Trying to make any kind of deal with them to not steal technology is a fools errand. Trump will end up with China simply finding another method to steal US technology. Ceasing business in China does not remove their need to steel, but it makes it harder to do. That is far better than making a deal and leaving the door wide open for China to develop another method of easy technology theft.

The current business cycle is already indicating a near top which will, with Trump’s tariffs, soon lead to a downward trend. The stock market will peak soon after the business cycle (economy) and then sell-off quickly as it predicts the ensuing recession. There is still time to invest, but you must keep an eye on the inevitable path the business cycle and stock market will take. Consumer staples ETFs such as XLP, FSTA, and UDC are your best bets. Good Investing!

Week 3 (June 17 – 21):

The overall economy is weaker thanks to tariffs and investors tend toward defensive positions. This creates a possible opportunity going forward. The opportunity is based on the fact that Pres. Trump has one path to a second term: First, the Fed must cut rates, probably in July. Second, there must be a trade deal with China that follows the rate cut. The first condition is likely, the second is anyone’s guess and may come only after another round of tariffs on Chinese exports. If the rate cut and trade deals both happen, the market will go up and positioning oneself a bit more aggressively now may pay off. That said, consider the following Zack’s No. 1’s with VGM = A scores: ERIC, NOA, MBUU, RIO, CSL, and HIBB. Dividend growth stocks are: PAGP, PHI, GEO, APAM, RIO, and BBL. The best ETFs for more aggressive positioning are PXMG, JKH, PSJ, VIG, VOT.

Keep in mind that any trade deal with China is a political move rather than anything substantive. The Chinese will still steal our technology. Moreover, just like Obama ruined economic growth by regulating markets that he did not understand, Pres. Trump does not understand international trade. He is more likely to continue his misguided tariff polices (analogous to Obama’s over regulation) until global and domestic economic growth deteriorate into a global recession. Luckily, this may be a consequence that is still a few years away. In he meantime, good investing!

Week 4 (June 24 – 28):

You have two ways to play the market, either wait for Trump to fail with the Chinese and the markets to fall or hope for a deal so that the markets will go up. A Fed rate cut will probably occur in July regardless of the China pissing contest. My view is that Trump’s failure to negotiate for a mutually beneficial outcome and strengthen global friendships and instead rely on making enemies and trying to win at others costs cannot be expected to succeed. That leaves the Fed to add liquidity to the swirling toilet bowl and slow down or mitigate the stock sell-off. Thus, until a see a post sell-off situation or a completely different geo-political environment, I am playing it safe. For those with a more optimistic outlook, consider the growth stocks NOA, TGH, MBUU, RIO, DIOD, HBB, and KELYA. Dividend growth stocks to look at are: ABR, APAM, CMP, EPD, EVC, GEO, NCMI, and SUN. Growth oriented ETFs are JKH, IWP, and FNY. These will also be excellent investments after a sell-off. In the meantime, good Investing!

The post June 2019 Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

Trump trade woe’s continue. When companies buy high bang-per-buck (Productivity divided by cost) resources in foreign countries like Mexico, such as with our automobile industry, it maximizes output per cost or, equivalently, minimizes cost per unit of output. In other words, our automobile industry becomes more competitive by using Mexico’s production resources. China has a communist government and cannot be traded with or used for production because the cost of stealing our technology outweighs the benefit of high bang-per-buck production resources. Trump, the isolationist, wants production in China to continue under his negotiated conditions or to be reallocated to the US where low-bang-per buck resources would destroy our comparative advantage in trade. Instead, why not incentivize resource reallocation from China to Mexico. By doing that, we stay competitive and technology theft by government direction will no longer occur. Mexico’s economy will be greatly improved and the incentive to migrate to the US greatly reduced. Mexico may be so grateful it may offer to build Trump’s wall. Unfortunately, Trump’s thinking that Mexico is somehow stealing our automobile and other industry trade prevents him from choosing this strategy. Because Trump fails to understand optimal resource allocation and the sources of comparative advantage in trade that lead to increased US exports, he will make the US and the rest of the world worse off. He may even cause a global recession so get ready.

In the meantime, the best Zack’s number 1 stocks are AU and TALO. The best dividend growth stocks are APAM, AVAL, and NBLX. Pure growth stocks are GLDD and HTZ and the best ETFs are PXMG and FXL. As for myself, I’ll be heavily weighted toward cash. Eventually, like at the end of 2018, that strategy will lead to a buying opportunity while at the same time preserving capital. Good investing!

Week 2 – 3:

Why can’t we just stop dealing with a communist government’s inability to conduct free market trade? They really don’t want to engage in free market trade, which should be clear enough already. Instead, simply incentivize all US companies to cease doing business in China and be done with it. As it is, Trump is trying to cut a hole in the Chinese end of the trade canoe. In other words, the main effect of tariffs or taxes is to distort prices and trade flows which harms both parties about equally, so get ready for some higher prices. To me, it’s like watching a dual where both parties take ten steps, turn, and then shoot themselves in the head. On top of this idiocy, Trump wants to put more tariffs on autos and Mexican production . . . again trying to cut a whole in the other end of the canoe. Ultimately, this must end badly, but just not right away.

In the meantime, some long positions in growth stocks might include: ERIC, NOA, RYI, TGH, MBUU, QD, and SSL. Top ETFs are PSJ, FCOM, and PXMG. Dividend growth stocks to consider include: BMA, APAM, PUK, ad NCMI. Good investing!

Week 4 (May 25 – 31):

People generally underestimate the negative supply-side tax increase policy of increased tariffs and isolationism. It is estimated to cost the average household about $800 per year which offsets the corporate and income tax decreases about equally. Reduced producer regulations remain the only net positive so the pricing in of negative trade effects aren’t trivial and may occur in subsequent rounds of adjustment. Assuming the tariff policy doesn’t lead to a global recession in the short-term, this represents a possible overcorrection and buying opportunity within the domestic economy. Thus you should consider some dividend growth stocks to research and watch such as USAC, GLT, EPM, AEG, VSAT, GTLS, FSI, CNMD, and ABR. Strong growth stocks include NOA, RYI, TGH, VRNT, QD, OSIS, GPI, CUB and JCOM. Some good ETFs are XLP and XLV. A long-term growth mutual fund to consider is CPOBX. Good investing!

The post May Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

Looks like things have decided to cool off and things are relatively stable. Trump and the Chinese can still cause a major disruption so be prepared. Since you can’t know when things might change and it is political rather than fundamental it is probably best to plan on holding through any disruption. That said, panic selling is always a buying opportunity so I’d have some cash on hand.

Stocks to look at for growth are JLL, CBRE, and CIGI. ETFs are BBH, FCOM, and OUSA. Dividend growth stocks to consider include AVH, RIO, WPP, and ASRT. Expect TLRY to soundly beat its expected earnings on 3/18/19. Good investing!

Weeks 2 – 3:

The yield curve inversion is not that big of a deal . . . but we always explain it away and then have a recession.  Generally, when short rates are greater than longer rates, it indicates a slowdown in economic growth because longer rates increase only if private sector investment borrowing coupled with inflation are increasing because of accelerating economic growth.  The US is slowing down a bit, but the economy remains on good footing.  It is global growth that is feeding back into the yield curve.  Our rates are simply higher and international capital flows are about ten times those of trade flows.  Foreign money flows in to buy US treasury bonds when foriegn rates fall, as they are now.  This bids up the dollar, which is relatively strong, along with bond prices.  This, in turn, decreases bond yields and explains a lot of the yield curve inversion.  Trump’s trade policies are at the heart of the global slowdown and will eventually lead to a recession in the US unless a deal with China is reached and trade isolationism ends before that happens.  Trump’s trade policies are also why the Fed cannot continue to reduce its balance sheet and prepare for the next recession.  A socialist in the White house would then want to use Keynsian fiscal policy to bury us for good in a insurmountable level of government debt. We would then be at the mercy of the IMF for access to credit (foreign capital inflows would dry up due to the lower credit rating).  We would be put on austerity measures (very high taxes) because of IMF conditionality requirements.  As with Greece we would expect to spend eternity digging our way out of the mess.

Now that the long-run path to austerity measures is laid down, lets consider the next 12 to 30 months.  The band will still be playing party music on the deck of the titanic and the markets should be going up. Consider the growth stocks IIPR, CAPL, CRMT, XLNX, AVX, and AVID.  ETFs that look strong are PSJ, XSW, and PXMG.  Dividend growth stocks are EQM and BGCP.  Good investing!     

The post March Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

The October sell-off has created opportunities for stock pickers.  On the other hand, Friday’s hot inflation read means the market is now sure of a Dec. Fed rate hike.  As Warren Buffet warns,  “Interest rates are like gravity to stocks.”  A more mechanical rationale for this phenomenon is that the higher the interest rate the higher is the discount rate on expected future earnings for stocks.  This simply lowers their present values.

If you’re cautious like me, simply hold cash or near cash funds that pay a dividend tied to short-term interest rates.  Cash isn’t going to change its value much, if at all.  The dividends, however, will increase along with Fed rate hikes.  This will also tend to increase the value of these funds over time.  For example, you can hold JPST, ICSH, USFR, and FLOT and be safe given the markets increased volatility.  Moreover, a severe sell-off leaves you holding money that you can then convert into opportunities in much lower stock prices.

In the meantime, some growth stocks you might want to consider are ARC, CRC, MOS, and USAK.  Growth oriented ETFs to look at include JJOFF, BJO, HDV, XLV, IHI, DGRO, and MGV.  Two good dividend growth stocks are AUO and MCY.  Good investing!

Week 2 (Nov. 12 – 16):

When you don’t like the market, be defensive.  In other words, making money requires positioning for the prospect of belter opportunities.  I am holding only ICSH, JPST, and FLRN.  If the market improves and doesn’t crash I will look at SPHD, PEY, and BST.  The main problem is that tariffs will drive the global economy into a recession and take the US with it.  The Fed can only accelerate this process by raising interest rates too fast.  They probably won’t though as they are aware of the global economic slowdown caused by tariffs.  However, failing to raise rates as expected will send a bad signal to the markets.  A crash might follow.  If you expect a crash, be in cash!  Good investing!

Week 3 (Nov. 19 – 23):

The market will either get better, get worse, or stay the same.  To end getting worse, there must be large volume and disorganized or panic driven sell-off.  Until then you must wait by holding cash in the form of ICSH, FLRN, JPST, USFR, and TFLO.  The Fed looks only at the economy to see if tightening and unloading its balance sheet assets continue to make sense.  To the stock market it looks like the Fed is taking the punch bowl away from market partiers.  That’s why you continue to hear from brokers things like, “. . . the Fed knows nothing!”  I’d ignore that.  The Fed must dampen inflation expectations by being a bit overly aggressive, not invert the yield curve, and sell its financial assets to keep the economy from overheating in the short-run.  It’s only the short-run that it can manage. So ignore that noise about the Fed.

The real problem is that Trump’s tariff policies are probably going to cause a global recession from which the US can not escape.  Dealing with the Chinese is required, but be done differently so as not to adversely effect our main trading partners in the EU.  Having the Congress take away  Chinese most favored nation (MFN) status would be a better strategy.  Prohibiting our companies from engaging in joint venters with the Chinese would be another.  Incentivizing companies to move their international operations to countries other than China is yet another strategy.  One could go on but you get the point.

If you want to consider a short-run growth stock try CONN.  Another thing to consider is the iShares Evolved Health care staples ETF which uses the symbol IEHS.  Otherwise, hold cash.  In the long-run, interest rates may continue an upward trend as the Federal budget will soon be comprised of only nondiscretionary entitlement expenditures such as Social Security.  All discretionary expenditures such as military funding will then require additional borrowing.  If a socialist is elected president, then there will be even more discretionary expenditures associated with government income redistribution that will require even more borrowing.  Moreover, the supply side of our economy will be destroyed and this represents our tax base.

This will put us in a situation like Greece.  Already, our gross national debt is above 100% of our economy’s GDP.  Before Obama, it was only 50%.  Naturally, Obama’s Keynesian fiscal stimulus expenditures not only failed to pay themselves back, they made everything worse.  Because of the rise of socialists, this situation is more likely to repeat itself than not.  Thus, you might want to just hold cash forever.  On the other hand, if the stock market gets low enough opportunities may once again appear.  Until then, good investing!

Week 4 (Nov. 26 – 30):

The Fed has softened up and considers the secular decline in the neutral discount and Federal funds rate targets as near.  That leaves the problem of trade protectionism of the Trump administration as the remaining headwind and major global problem.  Markets are on edge as the G-20 summit begins.  If China and the US have a more or less pleasant meeting, then the market should react positively.  Still, don’t expect a deal.  Eventually, trade protectionism that continues  will lead to a world-wide economic collapse.  Already the negative effects of employment loss in export industries and higher production and consumer costs (inflation) are showing up in the US.  Things can get much worse as continued protectionism will simply support a continuation of this trend.

In the meantime, those that want to be in the market might look at TITN and ABG as potential growth stocks to add.  A good dividend paying ETF is HDV.  Some defensive oriented ETFs that pay monthly are SPHD and PEY.  I also like JRO, DHS, and PDT for dividends and growth.   Three good dividend growth stocks are VLO, MO, and T.    A defensive but growth oriented ETF is IEHS.  The preferred stock LDP is now at a substantial discount to NAV and pays over 8%.  I would continue to hold cash or near cash funds like TFLO, JPST, ICSH, and USFR as the largest part of your portfolio.  These will reduce portfolio volatility and produce monthly dividends.  Good investing!

The post November Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

Fed interest rate hikes are the new source of market volatility.  Cramer says that he doesn’t like this market.  Given his experience, that’s a big red flag.  Cramer also suggests that the sell-off has begun.  Another red flag.   Generally, stocks do well during rising rates until, of course, the Fed goes too far.  Right now the Fed is still below a neutral discount rate or Fed funds rate target.  Thus, while the Fed is still accommodative, at some point the sell-off will be overdone and buying will once again dominate.  Once the Fed hits neutral, which shouldn’t be for about a year or so, then you will want to be much more wary.

I will only recommend a few stocks under these circumstances.  BPT is still going up strongly so you might just ride that for a while.  Others worth holding are near money’s such as MINT, USTB, FLTR, and ICSH.  These last ones pay 2 – 3% and are tied, more or less, to the Fed funds rate.  Thus they will pay more when the Fed increases rates.  BPT is an oil royalty trust and pays about 16% as a dividend.  You can still get that for October.  Moreover, it is going up along with expectations for higher oil and gas prices.  Leveraged inverses like TVIX and TZA are also possible as long as you are around to keep an eye on them.  That’s all I have for now.  Good investing!

Week 2 (Oct 8 – 12):

The selling is over or nearing an end.  Wednesday and Thursday created opportunities in my view.  If you think that buying a whiskey distillery just before the end of prohibition would have made you rich, then buying marijuana stocks now should also make sense.  October 17 and November 1 open the scope of the pot markets substantially.  During the sell off on Wednesday and Thursday I started positions in two ETFs,  HMLSF and MJ, which increased on Friday by 4.26% and 4.92% respectively.   I also bought the companies ACBFF, CGC, MMNFF, and TGODF which had respective Friday increases of 8.13%, 5.62%, 29.44%, and 8.94%.  I’d say that was pretty good money for the week!  If any of these stocks or funds pull back next week, you may want to consider building similar positions.  I think the long-run potential includes returns of 50% – 500% through 2019.  That is my advice for this week.  Good investing!

Week 3 (Oct. 15 – 19):  

The market may still be setting up for more selling so be ware.  Can’t yet call the bottom because what selling is still going on is pretty tame and organized.  Sold my cannabis stocks into Monday’s early morning buying and realized about a years worth of gains in just a few days.  Once Canopy (CGC) gets down to around $40, I’ll probably start to buy back in.  In the meantime you might want to research some growth stocks such as ANDE, SNDR, ARCB, and GLP.  A good ETF for the long-run but that measures market sentiment in the short-run is IHI.  I am watching IHI for an indication of the market bottom.  Other ETFs for long-run growth are XLV and VHT.  Some good dividend growth stocks to consider are ENLK and ARLP.

If you start any new positions I’d move slowly until the market looks healthier.  That might be when people either get used to higher nominal interest rates which were held at zero for far too long.

The reason they were so low for so long was that market socialist policies on the supply side of the economy during the previous administration slowed economic growth which led the Fed to try stimulating the economy on the expenditure side.  We were heading into another recession before the last election.  If Hillary had won we’d be there now.  After the last election, we had two supplied side positives (tax cuts and less regulation).  Then we added a negative supply-side policy involving trade obstruction (i.e., tariffs or equivalently tax increases).  Now we have another negative effect due to Fed tightening that adds even more uncertainty.  Yet, the Fed cannot slow interest rate increases much because it still has to unwind its balance sheet to get back to normal.  Selling off its financial assets lowers there prices and increases market interest rates.  Unwinding will take quite a while.  Thus, get used to this situation and the market volatility it causes.  Once there is over selling among stocks, there will be opportunities.  I’d keep ICSH and MINT loaded up and used to take advantage of market opportunities like the previous few weeks among pot stocks.  In the meantime they will reward you with increasing dividends because their returns are directly related to the Fed Funds rate.  Be sure to buy them on their ex-dividend dates which are the first of each month so as to get more shares for your money and preserve your capital.  Good “opportunistic” investing!

Week 4 (Oct. 22 – 31):

Selling before the midterms in November has probably ended.  That is the only uncertainty handled.   The Fed and Tariff policy remains.  Because of this, I think the systemic risk in the market is the government.  It offsets deregulation and tax cuts so that there is nothing left to propel the market forward other than economic fundamentals and earnings.  These are still fine.  Technical analysis suggests that the market is 1) oversold and that money must be put to work and 2) that there is likely more severe selling that will occur in the near future.  This is not a clear message so beware!

Consider the growth stocks ENVA and HSII if you feel safe enough to invest.  ETFs to consider for dividend income are HDV and OUSA.  An ETF for growth in healthcare is XLV.  My personal preference is to just hold ICSH and wait for its dividends to increase along with short-term interest rates.  Once the Fed causes a market crash that is yet more severe than we experienced in October, start looking for stocks with PE multiples below 15 with good future earnings potential.  If we get a trade deal with the EU and China, start looking sooner.  Gee, what market uncertainty could there still be?  Good luck and good investing!

The post October Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

Trade is still a negative while just about everything else (eg., domestic economy and GDP growth, relatively low real interest rates, and company earnings) are positives.

On a different issue, I don’t get why the NFL allows anyone to take a knee during the national anthem.  There are a billion and one things to protest and every player can take a knee for one reason or another such that no one stands.  This disrespects the nation and that we have free speech.  In other words, protest is what our nation represents and kneeling merely protests your own right to protest.  Too many knocks to the head perhaps?

On to stocks and funds.  Buy ATEYY, CONN, and RNR for growth.  Check out OSB for dividend growth.  A great ETF to consider is JSMD.  If you want to put money into a monthly paying mutual fund that is highly ranked and that always pays its dividend then consider FLARX.  FLARX yields 3.85% and tends to hold its value.   Other monthly paying cash or near cash related funds to consider are BLW, USAIX, and ICSH.  Good investing.

Week 2 (Sept. 10 – 14):

Watching stock indexes turn red with more tariffs.  Will there be any more positive news on this front?  Probably a deal with Canada, and then maybe the EU.  Both would be a welcome relief. I don’t think it matters with China that we get a deal.  I’d like to see all our firms doing business in China reallocate entirely to anywhere else.

As for investments, consider GNRC, ATEYY, and OXINF for growth.  Recommended dividend growth stocks are BGCP, ARLP, BGSF, GES, MCY, GLNCY, and OSB.  Growth oriented ETFs are IHI, FXL, XLM, and VGT.  Dividend ETFs with payouts directly related to increasing short-term interest rates are BLW, BGT, FRA, EFT, JRO, and JFR.  Mutual funds with returns related to short-term interest rates are BLDRX and BFRKX.  Two high paying dividend growth stocks that hold up will under economic downturns are MO and PM.  That’s all for this week.  Good investing!

Week 3 (Sept. 17 – 21):

Between now and when the negative effects of trade obstruction show up in economic data there is only the midterm elections.  Election noise will lead to market volatility and opportunity.  There may also be a year-end Santa rally.  Without trade deals as promised, trade effects will manifest themselves as job losses and greater inflation.  This will happen about the time economic stimulus from de-regulation and tax cuts begin to fade and interest rates rise to higher levels.  Prepare to exit the market at that time.  Holding cash at higher interest rates will be increasingly popular and funds like MINT, ICHS, and EFT will help in that regard.

In the meantime, the market and the economy looks solid.  Consider the stocks CBD and RHHBY for growth.   For dividend growth look at MCY.  Excellent growth oriented ETFs include IHI and BBH.  For the increasing interest rate environment, start looking at the ETFs EFT, FLTR, PPR, ICHS, MINT, and VRP.  Alternatively, a good mutual fund for rising rates is EABLX.  Good Investing!

Week 4 (Sept. 24 -28):

Anybody question whether September is a typically slow month for the stock market?  Glad it’s over.  Looking ahead to October, consider ZUMZ, VRS, GES, and TITN for growth.  Dividend growth stocks to take a look at are XAN and PAGP.  Additional growth oriented ETFs you may want to consider are FXL, VONG, and SPYG. As for growth oriented mutual funds, consider AGOZX and NYSAX.  Good investing!

The post September Market Beating Stock Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

Back from 3 plus weeks of vacation.  The office staff is back to work.

Here are some pictures taken during my time away from my computer.  Guess where?

Growth stocks to consider:  SNDR, VRS, VSI, and ZBRA.  SNDR pays a small dividend.  New dividend growth stocks for your retirement portfolios might include OSB and GLNCY.  The best ETFs are JSML, RZG, and VIOG.

The collapse of the Turkish currency that makes them less able to pay foreign denominated debt obligations is hurting the markets.  The IMF will likely come to the rescue soon, which is typical in a currency crises.  Expect the situation to die down at some point.  In the mean time, good investing!

Week 3 (August 20 – 24):

Busy and Tia are recommending that you consider the following growth stocks:  ARC, HNGR, and NOA.  For dividend growth, consider:  T, LADR, BGCP, CQH, MIC, NEWT, VNOM, and WPP.  The best growth ETFs are JSML, RZG, VIOG, and SLYG.  ETFs for dividend growth are DVY, DHS, RDIV, and PEY.  If you live in California and want to earn 5.28% while avoiding both California and Federal Taxes, consider BFZ.  Good Investing!

Week 4 (August 27 – 31):

The faster Trump moves to negotiate and undue his trade obstructionism the faster will the economy and the stock market grow.  At the moment trade obstructionism is putting on the brakes.  Luckily the economy and earnings have strong enough momentum on their side to overcome the brake.  Given that, consider looking at  BRSS, VRS, OSB, and VSI for growth.  OSB is also an excellent addition to anyone’s dividend growth portfolio.  High risk, high growth ETFs are BBH and RZG.  BBH focuses on biotech stocks and RZG focuses on the S&P Small Cap  600 for pure growth.  That’s all I have for August.  Football season is underway.  Good investing!

The post August Market Beating Stock Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

If Pres. Trump makes a trade deal to reduce tariffs (taxes on imports) it will be pro supply side along with the earlier tax cuts and deregulation.  If he stays protectionist, economic growth will slow, both domestically and globally.  The later problem may even lead to a recession.  Within that context of uncertainty, I’ll recommend the following growth stocks:  AY, GLNCY, GBX, MRO, NCS, CIVI, and CONN.  Strong dividend growth comes with GLNCY.  Also, EQIX offers strong dividend growth although it is relatively expensive.  Strong ETFs for long-run growth are RZG, JSML, and PSCH.  Good Investing!

Week 2 (July 9 – 13):

In the U.S., markets seem to have priced in the negative effects of the trade war versus the positive effects of earnings and economic growth.  This means that the overall market will end the year about where it is now.  Stock picking is even more important as only a handful of “other than average” stocks will handily beat the market.  For growth, consider ORN.  For dividend growth consider BHR, CQH, CNXM, and CLNY.  The best growth oriented ETFs include FDN, PSCH, and PNQI.  Good investing!

The post Free Market Beating Stock Picks for July first appeared on MarchéEconomics.