April is starting off well.  Still have doubts about Trump’s trade policies, especially towards Mexico.  The China problem centers around forced technology transfer, or simply technology theft by a communist government.  We should never have let any of that happen.  But Mexico is simply a producer with higher bang- per- buck labor resources.  Any resources value per dollar is its productivity or value added divided by its price.  That’s the same principle as when we expect consumers to spend their next dollar on the highest bang- per- buck items defined as marginal utility divided by price.  Producers are doing the same or getting the most for their money with Mexico’s labor.  Mexican value added by labor is at least as good or higher than that of  UAW workers and the wage rate is lower.  Its a competitive market place and we should expect producers to try and beat their competition by as much as possible by allocating their productive resources so as to reduce costs and make the most money.  There is absolutely no reason not to recognize the comparatively greater value of Mexican labor in the auto industry.  To not recognize the efficiency gains and instead threaten tariffs on Mexico is completely missing the point about allocative efficiency gains from foreign production and trade.  This is not presidential behavior, but the kind of mediocre intellect expected of those without any education . . . which are also Trump’s constituents.  Not being able to separate Trump from the intellectual depravity of his non-competitive and isolationist constituents is troubling.

With that said, the coming election in 2020 places political constraints on upsetting the market with more tariffs or failing to finalize a trade deal with the Chinese that addresses intellectual property theft.  Thus, there is hope for market stability and for the bull market to continue.  Assuming we can stay long, consider FSUGY, HSII, KMDA, and KLYCY for growth.  Dividend growth stocks include AVH, CAPL, AYR, IMBBY, IPG, and LKSD.  ETFs to consider are PSJ, PXMG, XSW, and IGN.  Good investing!

Week 2 – 3:

Trump still doesn’t understand the economics of trade any more than Obama understood the nature of a market economy. Trump is ruining our economy through tariffs just like Obama ruined our economy with too many socialist based market regulations. If and when there is a recession, it will probably occur through negative effects on trade, just as we were heading into a recession at the end of Obama’s eight years. A Trump recession is not hard to see. Trump’s tariffs have already made it impossible for the Fed to reduce its balance sheet any further, leaving us vulnerable to the next economic downturn. The mechanics of a trade related recession occur through reducing economic activity because of new tariffs. Less economic activity will occur both domestically and abroad. Eventually jobs will be lost globally and domestically. Once that gains momentum, nothing will stop it from becoming worse, especially not the Fed. Of course, Trump will be pointing fingers at the Fed for reducing its balance sheet and raising rates, but the whole problem will be Trump.

Enter the socialist Bernie Sanders, probably after the next election. Bernie should write a book about why socialism doesn’t work. He clearly doesn’t understand why competitive market economies do work. He is not academically qualified to tell anybody anything about comparative economic systems. He just has a big ego and wants followers to drown in a sewer of poverty after succumbing to his sweet song of how everything we want will fall out of the sky at no cost. In reality, you have to give up something to get anything that is real. What will be given up to fund universal healthcare or Medicare for all and free college? Bet will be very vulnerable to attack because of a deeply weakened military at the very least. What about the wasted resources of free college which allows more students to complete valueless degrees. There goes a bunch of human capital down the drain. Moreover, what jobs will these students be able to get from a ruined market economy that is racked by higher taxation and socialist regulation? Will we have to go to guaranteed government jobs? If so, how much well will be lost overall? Bet everyone will love socialism then.

In the meantime, we still have a little room left in the bull market run, but probably not too much. Growth stocks to look at include AVID, EZPW, GIII, and CRMT. Dividend growth stocks include BKE, CAPL, PSXP, and WPP. The best ETFs are IGN, PXMG and FXL.

As for current market strategy. The market is again toping out in most sectors. Look for another pullback like at the end of 2018. I was 100% cash during that time and had money for the recovery that started at the very end of 2018. I’ll be looking to do that again, and fairly soon . . . say 3 – 5 months or so. In the mean time, good Investing!

The post April Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

The post April Stock and Fund Picks appeared first on MarchéEconomics.

The October sell-off has created opportunities for stock pickers.  On the other hand, Friday’s hot inflation read means the market is now sure of a Dec. Fed rate hike.  As Warren Buffet warns,  “Interest rates are like gravity to stocks.”  A more mechanical rationale for this phenomenon is that the higher the interest rate the higher is the discount rate on expected future earnings for stocks.  This simply lowers their present values.

If you’re cautious like me, simply hold cash or near cash funds that pay a dividend tied to short-term interest rates.  Cash isn’t going to change its value much, if at all.  The dividends, however, will increase along with Fed rate hikes.  This will also tend to increase the value of these funds over time.  For example, you can hold JPST, ICSH, USFR, and FLOT and be safe given the markets increased volatility.  Moreover, a severe sell-off leaves you holding money that you can then convert into opportunities in much lower stock prices.

In the meantime, some growth stocks you might want to consider are ARC, CRC, MOS, and USAK.  Growth oriented ETFs to look at include JJOFF, BJO, HDV, XLV, IHI, DGRO, and MGV.  Two good dividend growth stocks are AUO and MCY.  Good investing!

Week 2 (Nov. 12 – 16):

When you don’t like the market, be defensive.  In other words, making money requires positioning for the prospect of belter opportunities.  I am holding only ICSH, JPST, and FLRN.  If the market improves and doesn’t crash I will look at SPHD, PEY, and BST.  The main problem is that tariffs will drive the global economy into a recession and take the US with it.  The Fed can only accelerate this process by raising interest rates too fast.  They probably won’t though as they are aware of the global economic slowdown caused by tariffs.  However, failing to raise rates as expected will send a bad signal to the markets.  A crash might follow.  If you expect a crash, be in cash!  Good investing!

Week 3 (Nov. 19 – 23):

The market will either get better, get worse, or stay the same.  To end getting worse, there must be large volume and disorganized or panic driven sell-off.  Until then you must wait by holding cash in the form of ICSH, FLRN, JPST, USFR, and TFLO.  The Fed looks only at the economy to see if tightening and unloading its balance sheet assets continue to make sense.  To the stock market it looks like the Fed is taking the punch bowl away from market partiers.  That’s why you continue to hear from brokers things like, “. . . the Fed knows nothing!”  I’d ignore that.  The Fed must dampen inflation expectations by being a bit overly aggressive, not invert the yield curve, and sell its financial assets to keep the economy from overheating in the short-run.  It’s only the short-run that it can manage. So ignore that noise about the Fed.

The real problem is that Trump’s tariff policies are probably going to cause a global recession from which the US can not escape.  Dealing with the Chinese is required, but be done differently so as not to adversely effect our main trading partners in the EU.  Having the Congress take away  Chinese most favored nation (MFN) status would be a better strategy.  Prohibiting our companies from engaging in joint venters with the Chinese would be another.  Incentivizing companies to move their international operations to countries other than China is yet another strategy.  One could go on but you get the point.

If you want to consider a short-run growth stock try CONN.  Another thing to consider is the iShares Evolved Health care staples ETF which uses the symbol IEHS.  Otherwise, hold cash.  In the long-run, interest rates may continue an upward trend as the Federal budget will soon be comprised of only nondiscretionary entitlement expenditures such as Social Security.  All discretionary expenditures such as military funding will then require additional borrowing.  If a socialist is elected president, then there will be even more discretionary expenditures associated with government income redistribution that will require even more borrowing.  Moreover, the supply side of our economy will be destroyed and this represents our tax base.

This will put us in a situation like Greece.  Already, our gross national debt is above 100% of our economy’s GDP.  Before Obama, it was only 50%.  Naturally, Obama’s Keynesian fiscal stimulus expenditures not only failed to pay themselves back, they made everything worse.  Because of the rise of socialists, this situation is more likely to repeat itself than not.  Thus, you might want to just hold cash forever.  On the other hand, if the stock market gets low enough opportunities may once again appear.  Until then, good investing!

Week 4 (Nov. 26 – 30):

The Fed has softened up and considers the secular decline in the neutral discount and Federal funds rate targets as near.  That leaves the problem of trade protectionism of the Trump administration as the remaining headwind and major global problem.  Markets are on edge as the G-20 summit begins.  If China and the US have a more or less pleasant meeting, then the market should react positively.  Still, don’t expect a deal.  Eventually, trade protectionism that continues  will lead to a world-wide economic collapse.  Already the negative effects of employment loss in export industries and higher production and consumer costs (inflation) are showing up in the US.  Things can get much worse as continued protectionism will simply support a continuation of this trend.

In the meantime, those that want to be in the market might look at TITN and ABG as potential growth stocks to add.  A good dividend paying ETF is HDV.  Some defensive oriented ETFs that pay monthly are SPHD and PEY.  I also like JRO, DHS, and PDT for dividends and growth.   Three good dividend growth stocks are VLO, MO, and T.    A defensive but growth oriented ETF is IEHS.  The preferred stock LDP is now at a substantial discount to NAV and pays over 8%.  I would continue to hold cash or near cash funds like TFLO, JPST, ICSH, and USFR as the largest part of your portfolio.  These will reduce portfolio volatility and produce monthly dividends.  Good investing!

The post November Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

The post November Stock and Fund Picks appeared first on MarchéEconomics.

Fed interest rate hikes are the new source of market volatility.  Cramer says that he doesn’t like this market.  Given his experience, that’s a big red flag.  Cramer also suggests that the sell-off has begun.  Another red flag.   Generally, stocks do well during rising rates until, of course, the Fed goes too far.  Right now the Fed is still below a neutral discount rate or Fed funds rate target.  Thus, while the Fed is still accommodative, at some point the sell-off will be overdone and buying will once again dominate.  Once the Fed hits neutral, which shouldn’t be for about a year or so, then you will want to be much more wary.

I will only recommend a few stocks under these circumstances.  BPT is still going up strongly so you might just ride that for a while.  Others worth holding are near money’s such as MINT, USTB, FLTR, and ICSH.  These last ones pay 2 – 3% and are tied, more or less, to the Fed funds rate.  Thus they will pay more when the Fed increases rates.  BPT is an oil royalty trust and pays about 16% as a dividend.  You can still get that for October.  Moreover, it is going up along with expectations for higher oil and gas prices.  Leveraged inverses like TVIX and TZA are also possible as long as you are around to keep an eye on them.  That’s all I have for now.  Good investing!

Week 2 (Oct 8 – 12):

The selling is over or nearing an end.  Wednesday and Thursday created opportunities in my view.  If you think that buying a whiskey distillery just before the end of prohibition would have made you rich, then buying marijuana stocks now should also make sense.  October 17 and November 1 open the scope of the pot markets substantially.  During the sell off on Wednesday and Thursday I started positions in two ETFs,  HMLSF and MJ, which increased on Friday by 4.26% and 4.92% respectively.   I also bought the companies ACBFF, CGC, MMNFF, and TGODF which had respective Friday increases of 8.13%, 5.62%, 29.44%, and 8.94%.  I’d say that was pretty good money for the week!  If any of these stocks or funds pull back next week, you may want to consider building similar positions.  I think the long-run potential includes returns of 50% – 500% through 2019.  That is my advice for this week.  Good investing!

Week 3 (Oct. 15 – 19):  

The market may still be setting up for more selling so be ware.  Can’t yet call the bottom because what selling is still going on is pretty tame and organized.  Sold my cannabis stocks into Monday’s early morning buying and realized about a years worth of gains in just a few days.  Once Canopy (CGC) gets down to around $40, I’ll probably start to buy back in.  In the meantime you might want to research some growth stocks such as ANDE, SNDR, ARCB, and GLP.  A good ETF for the long-run but that measures market sentiment in the short-run is IHI.  I am watching IHI for an indication of the market bottom.  Other ETFs for long-run growth are XLV and VHT.  Some good dividend growth stocks to consider are ENLK and ARLP.

If you start any new positions I’d move slowly until the market looks healthier.  That might be when people either get used to higher nominal interest rates which were held at zero for far too long.

The reason they were so low for so long was that market socialist policies on the supply side of the economy during the previous administration slowed economic growth which led the Fed to try stimulating the economy on the expenditure side.  We were heading into another recession before the last election.  If Hillary had won we’d be there now.  After the last election, we had two supplied side positives (tax cuts and less regulation).  Then we added a negative supply-side policy involving trade obstruction (i.e., tariffs or equivalently tax increases).  Now we have another negative effect due to Fed tightening that adds even more uncertainty.  Yet, the Fed cannot slow interest rate increases much because it still has to unwind its balance sheet to get back to normal.  Selling off its financial assets lowers there prices and increases market interest rates.  Unwinding will take quite a while.  Thus, get used to this situation and the market volatility it causes.  Once there is over selling among stocks, there will be opportunities.  I’d keep ICSH and MINT loaded up and used to take advantage of market opportunities like the previous few weeks among pot stocks.  In the meantime they will reward you with increasing dividends because their returns are directly related to the Fed Funds rate.  Be sure to buy them on their ex-dividend dates which are the first of each month so as to get more shares for your money and preserve your capital.  Good “opportunistic” investing!

Week 4 (Oct. 22 – 31):

Selling before the midterms in November has probably ended.  That is the only uncertainty handled.   The Fed and Tariff policy remains.  Because of this, I think the systemic risk in the market is the government.  It offsets deregulation and tax cuts so that there is nothing left to propel the market forward other than economic fundamentals and earnings.  These are still fine.  Technical analysis suggests that the market is 1) oversold and that money must be put to work and 2) that there is likely more severe selling that will occur in the near future.  This is not a clear message so beware!

Consider the growth stocks ENVA and HSII if you feel safe enough to invest.  ETFs to consider for dividend income are HDV and OUSA.  An ETF for growth in healthcare is XLV.  My personal preference is to just hold ICSH and wait for its dividends to increase along with short-term interest rates.  Once the Fed causes a market crash that is yet more severe than we experienced in October, start looking for stocks with PE multiples below 15 with good future earnings potential.  If we get a trade deal with the EU and China, start looking sooner.  Gee, what market uncertainty could there still be?  Good luck and good investing!

The post October Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

The post October Stock and Fund Picks appeared first on MarchéEconomics.

The economy is just right.  Short-term calm and low volatility usually create a “smart-money” outflow and a short-term dip that you should buy . . . maybe by tomorrow.  Consider the growth stocks GTES, and OFG.  Look at the ETFs:  XLI, PSCI, and XSD.   Good dividend growth stocks are CVRR, STX, HCLP and TRTN.  No one can predict the future or the next recession so all attempts to do so are merely noise.  Trump’s anti supply side trade policy will probably be the culprit for any economic slowdown or recession.  It is a job and growth killer and will eventually offset the supply side boosters of deregulation and tax cuts.  Just when that will occur is anybody’s guess.  Good Investing!

Week 2 (June 11 – 15):

The Fed raises the expected GDP growth rate and becomes more hawkish in terms of adding one more interest rate hike to the previous three it planned for the year.  Between the Fed getting ready for the next recession by raising short-term rates (the discount rate directly and the federal funds rate target rate range) and Trump trade tactics that may or may not produce results, the seeds are being sown that will lead to a recession, but one that is most likely far, far down the road.  With an unlikely near term recession as the background assumption, I’d consider growth stocks such as:  CVX, CVTI, SIM, MKSI, TALO, and TOELY.  Good dividend growth stocks include M, GIS, LYB, BXM, RMP, NEW, BGS, TRTN, and especially T.  Thanks to the reduced North Korean nuclear risk, an ETF you might want to consider is FKO.  Good investing!

Week 3 (June 18 – 22):

Trump trade tactics v everything else = increased volatility appears the theme.  Personally, I’d like to pull all our companies out of China before the steal all our technology.  Their command economy government doesn’t yet realize the extent of their unfair trade practices even though we have given them most favored nation status (MFN) in trade which eliminates trade barriers in exchange for an implied agreement that the Chinese behave like good trading partners.  Time for Congress to rescind MFN to the Chinese.  Trade talk still isn’t tough enough to get through to them.  Thus, this must continue and even escalate.  At some point the stock market will get used to it and simply price it in.

For growth, consider the stocks APC and DIOD.  APC also pays a dividend.  Dividend growth stocks to consider include BSM, CQH, CLNS, and NEE.  Strong growth ETFs are PSCH, FDN, FYC, and BTEC.  The best mutual funds are KSCOX and TEFQX.  Mutual funds require a substantial initial investment but ETFs do not.  Good investing!

Week 4 (June 25 – 29):

Traders that overreacted on Monday created opportunities for those with diversified portfolios  cash on hand.  This is likely to occur again so be ready.  I’d also have some TZA in my portfolio as a hedge.  In the meantime consider DLPH, PGR, ARCB, and ADBE for growth.  ETFs to take a look at include IHI, IGM, and FTEC.  Mutual funds are FBSOX and HCEGX.  Let us hope that June ends well.  Good investing!

The post Free Stock Picks for June 2018 first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

The post Free Stock Picks for June 2018 appeared first on MarchéEconomics.

Adjustment from April:  I recommended an Argentine utility company EDN that is very profitable and growing more so over time.  However, the Argentine currency problem continues to worsen which creates a currency translation problem for EDN.  Eventually, EDN will become very cheap and a great buy, but may continue to fall in value due to the weakening Argentine Peso in the nearer term.  Either get out of any position you have now and wait until the Peso stabilizes before going back in or wait to start a position in the future when EDN is a better buy.

Week 2 (May 7 – 11):

Money is coming back in.  The bull is once again ready to resume its run.  Buy JLL, GHDX, QNST, and CVRR as growth stocks.  CVRR is also a dividend growth stock.  Buy the ETF FTXL, but be ready for some volatility.  The best mutual fund is SMPSX.  I also have bught a little TVIX for assurance against future volatility as it is down into the $5’s.  Good Investing!

Week 3 (May 14 – 18):

The market seems to wake up and eat Korean fish snacks every morning for breakfast.  But then, after realizing it’s mistake, it recovers.  I’ll call that the state of the market for now.  Luckily, all things wear out:  Strong and steady gains, turn to a sell-off.  A sell-off turns to Korean fish snacks and volatility.  Korean fish snacks and volatility then turn into another leg up . . . eventually?  Be prepared.  That said, consider the ETF for small cap industrials PSCI.  Then consider the dividend growth stock PGR.  For a mutual fund, consider FKCSX for small cap growth.  If you want dividends and potential growth there is insider buying in GHY, which seems like a bet on interest rates going up.  Good investing!

Week 4 May (May 21 – 31):

I wanted to let market volatility play out a bit before making recommendations for this last period in May.  Buying the current dip should pay off.  Dividend growth stocks are AYR, BP, TEGP, and NRZ.  A good growth stock is HFC.  The ETF for growth is XLY.  The best mutual fund is TEFQX.  High yield junk bond funds and preferred CEFs have net asset values that move in the opposit direction of interest rates, just like with bonds.  At some point, interest rates will likely continue to increase which makes these funds risky.  With the exception of maybe BIT, I’d avoid those.  Good investing!

The post May Market Beating Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

The post May Market Beating Stock and Fund Picks appeared first on MarchéEconomics.

The analogy holds for investors.  When you buy a fund or stock you are using your financial capital to hire firms and fund managers to work for you.  If you do it right, this is also trickle up economics . . . or Pugonomics 101.  Sleep well.

The post Pugonomics 101 for Investors first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

The post Pugonomics 101 for Investors appeared first on MarchéEconomics.

Headwinds from trade wars are on the way.  This, as indicated in the February Stock State, is our biggest stock market worry.

Why are tariffs on steal and aluminum such a problem?  Trade theory, not stock market talking heads, is the answer.  Tariffs on specific commodities imposed by a large nation such as the US will effect the global price by reducing demand from a large (the US) importer.  This hurts all steal and aluminum manufacturers in the rest of the world and will lead directly to retaliation.  This starts a trade war.  I would not invest in the market in 1929 when the Smoot Hawley trade act had its worst effect.  International trade contracted by about 2/3s.  All trade related jobs (manufacturing, farming, transportation, shipping, inventory, etc.) were lost.  Export markets disappeared and caused farm production prices to plummet.  Farmers went broke.  A global recession ensued.

Market strategy is to go 100% to cash and wait until the consequences of the coming trade war are over.  You can play with the TVIX, for example, with your cash.  Wait for the TVIX to fall, buy some, and then sell it when it goes up, and then repeat.  That’s the only safe thing to do at this time.  I would normally say good investing, but that is no longer possible.  Good luck!

Marche 4 update:  

Presidents do good and bad things.  For example, Bill Clinton was a pro trader.  That, and the luck of low oil prices and computer technology adoption into work places that increased productivity provided supply side effects that overwhelmed Clinton’s higher taxes, military spending cuts, and Congressional social program cuts.  In effect, contractionary fiscal policy became overwhelmed by positive supply side effects.  Good or lucky aside, Clinton went on to restrict CIA recruiting and eliminated SEC oversight of derivatives.  These policies contributed to 911 and the Great Recession.

Obama attacked the economy while at the same time trying to stimulate it with deficit financed fiscal spending.  The weakest recovery on record occurred, along with a doubling of the US level of public debt.  In other words, before Obama, the US had about a 50% level of public debt to GDP and after Obama The US public debt to GDP ratio jumped to over 105%.  On the other hand, we did get Obama care.

President Trump is no different.  Cuts in Obama’s overregulation and corporate tax cuts are tremendous supply side effects that are good for the economy.  Moreover, expanding the tax base through economic growth will reduce the negative effects on public debt.  By contrast, recent protectionist trade policies are a huge and contradictory offset, mush like the contradictory macroeconomic policies of Obama.  Trump’s trade policies will cost jobs and economic growth even if there is no retaliation.  Users of steel and aluminum now face higher costs which contracts output and reduces employment.  Higher costs are then passed on to consumers.  The total cost to consumers averages about 10 times the value of any jobs saved in the protected steel and aluminum industries, causing the US to lose wealth, growth, and employment.  Worse, trading partners that previously sold steel and aluminum to the US have lost demand from a large importer and will face lower global prices as a result.  They will surely retaliate by imposing tariffs on our exports.

The World Trade Organization (WTO) oversees and enforces all international trade agreements and will soon rule on the legality of the steel and aluminum tariffs.  Most likely they will rule them illegal.  But, if they do Trump, as an isolationist, he may pull the US out of the WTO.  That will undermine the WTO’s credibility and its authority to oversee international trade agreements.  The world trading order may then unravel.  Trade agreements would become unenforceable and many nations may follow the US example of imposing tariffs on imports.  Soon no one will import (i.e., mercantilism where everyone wants only to export and have a trade surplus) and no trade will occur.  The world will then spiral into a deep recession.  Only a reversal of trade policy back to free and open trade will lead to recovery.

In the short-run, it is difficult to predict how markets or our trading partners will react.  Markets may settle down for a while before there is another round of volatility and sell-offs, or a bigger sell-off triggered by more immediate trading partner retaliation will occur.  Already, the agribusiness sector looks shaky.  Only time will tell.  One must prepare for any and all possibilities.  Trade theory prediction will be more accurate in the long run, but many scenarios are possible.  Even if the WTO rules in Trump’s favor, for example, other nations may sill follow the US example and impose trade restrictions of their own.  Time will tell how the dominos fall, but fall they will.

The post March 2018 Stock State first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

The post March 2018 Stock State appeared first on MarchéEconomics.

The correction or pull-back of about 10% is running its course.  Much of the attention focused on headwinds created by higher interest rates (as the 10 year government bond heads for 2.9% is an overstated concern.  Imagine you are flying a small airplane into a headwind.  The FED has helped you (the stock market) fly faster by buying government bonds (and other dept) to keep interest rates lower.  This builds up the FEDs balance sheet.  Unwinding the balance sheet puts downward pressure on stock valuations and increases short-term interest rates.  This tends to also cause longer term rates to go higher, but more on the basis of expected growth rate increases and inflation.  The higher interest rates in turn, increase the headwinds for your airplane (stock market) making it fly slower.  Thus, the sell-off.

This type of “fiscal-drag” is not likely to become severe.  Our interest rates are greater than those in many other countries and the dollar has stabilized or even increased in value.  From a foreigner’s point of view, a higher dollar value plus higher US interest rates make for an attractive investment.  As foreign investment flows into the US it does two things:  1) It reduces our interest rates because foreigners are now playing the role of an accommodative FED by buying up our bonds.  2) It keeps the dollar from falling too much, or it causes it to increase in value.  This increases the return to foreign bond purchasers and attracts even more portfolio capital into the US.  In other words, the reduction in headwinds is due to foreign portfolio capital inflows.  This allows our small airplane (stock market) to continue flying faster.

Problems of increased headwinds are actually elsewhere.  Increased deficit financing for government infrastructure expenditure is a potential headwind increase because the increased supply of bonds will increase domestic demand for savings and thereby increase market interest rates even more.  Still, this would only attract more foreign savings in the form of portfolio capital inflows from foreign sources and offset interest rate headwinds.  Bigger problems are potential trade wars that lead to retaliation, reduced exports, and net job losses.  Trade restrictions also result in a loss of welfare to consumers through higher prices.  Moreover, losses of consumer welfare are always much greater (by a factor of 10 or more) relative to the value of the few jobs saved through trade protections.  Hurting the consumer and reducing national income will also hurt the overall economy and become a threat to economic growth.  This is the biggest head wind to worry about.  Luckily, offsetting this recessionary head wind s the supply side stimuluses of the tax cut and deregulation policies.

While it is a case of reading the macroeconomic tea leaves in order to interpret future economic growth and earnings potential, it seems that the balance of weight comes down on the side of continued bull-market forces without too much in the way of interest rate or other heads winds slowing down the stock market.

The post February 2018 Stock State first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

The post February 2018 Stock State appeared first on MarchéEconomics.

I am always amused when I hear a stock described as “poised for explosive growth.”  It’s a catchy line but the same holds for any stock in the market.  Odds are, you will be right some of the time.  The only thing I will say about my stock picks is that they are subject to rigorous research and systematic screening and that some of them, even in the short-run of only a month, will perform well.  The others may pick up speed after a longer period.  Thus, I am no longer wanting to offer their relative performance over only a short period such as the previous month.  That said, here are those stocks and funds that you may want to take a closer look at as potential additions to your portfolio.

For growth, consider BIVV, MGLN, IT, AYX, BGG, EFSC, EGBN, TBK, and SF.  For dividends and growth, consider SCI, LAD, PRI and CG.  Growth funds to look at include IUSG, IVW, JKE, MOAT, and IWP.  You also may want to consider a closed in fund (CEF) selling at a discount that yeilds 8.7%.  The ticker is DPG and it is in the defensive utility sector, but still a reasonable consider ration for a portfolio balanced in terms of offense and defense.  Not a lot of people think about that aspect of portfolio balancing or diversification.  MOAT is also an offense/defense fund.  Of course funds also offer more diversification than do individual stocks.

Take advantage of the recent re-set in the stock market, but don’t be in a hurry.  You knew it was going to happen because January was just too good.  Get in front of those sectors, stocks, and funds, that are once again going up.

You may notice that I don’t recommend trading options.  Those are for traders not investors.

Good investing!

Week 2 (February 12 – 16):

Things look like they are picking up again.  Even the hotter inflation number, which I was waiting for, failed to slow the market for long.  For dividend growth stocks, consider MAIN (pays monthly), KIM, SEP, and OTC: TRSWF.  For growth take a look at SODA, ETFC, ALL, and JPM.. Funds I like are IVW, IWF, and FNI.  Some oversold reits that now pay higher yields are VTR, OHI, and STWD.  Good Investing!

Week 3/4 (February 20 – 28):

Switching from one regime in which the government tried to stimulate the economy with expansionary monetary and fiscal policy on the expenditure side and at the same time kill the economy with overregulation on the supply side to a replacement regime in which contradictory macroeconomic policies become consistent supply side policies that lead to real and expansionary economic growth associated with an actual economic recovery is, to the stock market, somewhat like sailing through seas where the Atlantic and Pacific oceans collide.  Eventually, the stock market will adjust to a long-awaited real economic recovery as opposed to an asset bubble that formed because money only flowed into excess bank reserves and the stock market.  The “sea change” involves more volatility and concerns over inflation, the dollar’s falling exchange value (which is good for exports but inflationary for imports), and rising interest rates in the bond market that signal the end of the bull market in bonds.  Already, betting on a long declining VIX has wiped out some unwary investors.  Quixotic fears of heightened inflation, higher interest rates, and overly aggressive FED tightening will eventually fade.  Until then, expect a bumpy ride.  Earnings and economic fundamentals have improved significantly and the stock market will eventually catch up.  Buy on the dips.

Stocks to consider for growth are MA, RCL, and CTSH.  Dividend growth stocks to look at include:  AM, MMLP, SKT, FUN, BPL, and EPD.  Leading funds are FV and SOXX.  Just so you know I don’t like guns or cigarets so I avoid recommending their related stocks.  In the meantime, Good Investing!

The post February Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

The post February Stock and Fund Picks appeared first on MarchéEconomics.

Bond sector money flows are one way to see how this might happen.  As the FED sells bonds to reduce its balance sheet and increase short-term interest rates, the value of unmatured bonds will decrease.  This is because the value of a bond varies inversely with the market interest rate for those bonds.  Moreover, either the interest rate can change and cause the value of bonds to change in the opposite direction of the interest rate change or the value of the bond can change and cause interest rates to change in the opposite direction..

An example of an interest rate change that causes an inverse change in bond values is as follows.  If you have a $1000 bond that never matures and pays a stated or fixed return of $50 per year, the corresponding market interest rate must equal 5%.  This gives $50/.05 = $1000.  Only the stated return of $50 is a constant value.  Both the $1000 bond value and the market interest rate of 5% are inversely related variables.  By contrast, if the market interest rate climbed to 10%, this same unmatured bond would now be worth $50/.10 = $500 in the open market.

This process is underway at the FED.  Specifically, as the FED sells bonds to decrease their value and thereby drive up interest rates we can expect people to sell unmatured bonds to avoid the expected capital losses.  The bond market is huge in that it is about twice the size of the market for stocks.  Cash from bond sales must go somewhere and most of it will go into stocks and drive the price of stocks higher.  At some point, on the other hand, those holding stocks will see higher rates on less risky bonds as a better alternative and the money that flowed into stocks will reverse and  flow back into the now higher yielding bonds.  This will look like what happened during the stock market crash in 1987.  The crash may cause a sudden V-shaped sell-off as in 1987 in which stock buying followed the sell-off.  On the other hand, it may cause a recession so that the stock market has a flat, bear market bottom.

One way to prevent the FED from causing a sudden and severe stock market sell-off from its activist monetary policy is to require the FED to follow a monetary rule that will maintain a so-called “neutral” short-term interest rate.  Such a rule might be related to the difference between a target inflation rate such as 2% and the actual inflation rate and the difference between a full employment GDP growth rate and the actual growth rate.  This is the Taylor rule.  If, for example, the actual inflation and GDP growth rates are above their respective target rates the FED would be required to sell bonds and cause an increase in short-term rates.  If, on the other hand, actual inflation and GDP growth rates are below their target rates then the FED would buy bonds to increase their value and thereby decrease short-term interest rates.  In both cases, it follows the monetary rule rather than to act with discretion.  Having the FED follow a monetary rule means that the state of the economy determines FED actions.  without the rule, FED actions tend to involve attempts to actively manage the economy based on the whims, fancies, assumptions, political influences, attitudes, or beliefs of the FED chief and board of governors.

As long we the economy is not characterized by stagflation in which the actual inflation rate is above target and the actual GDP growth rate is below target, the Taylor rule will work as guide to FED actions.  In a period of stagflation any monetary or fiscal expenditure stimulus aimed exclusively at the expenditure or aggregate demand side of the economy will fail because only an increase in inflation will occur.  Instead, policies with predominant effects on the supply or production side of the economy are effective because they increast the GDP growth rate and reduce inflation.  Such policies may include tax cuts, but policies such as reducing regulations that, in turn, reduce production costs and incentives for greater private investment that increase productivity, which also lowers production costs,are effective.

Fiscal expenditures on public infrastructure investment also increase productivity and lower production costs.  While the short-run effects on aggregate demand are inflationary, the longer-run effects are on the supply-side of the economy through increased productivity and lowered production costs put downward pressure on inflation while simultaneously stimulating  production and GDP growth.

The post Activist Monetary Policy Conundrum first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

The post Activist Monetary Policy Conundrum appeared first on MarchéEconomics.