The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) Declined in December

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Updated: Monday, January 12, 2026

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) declined in December to 104.27, from a downwardly revised 104.64 in November. The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for payroll employment. When the Index increases, employment is likely to grow as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the Index indicate that a change in the trend of job gains or losses is about to occur in the coming months.

“The ETI slid further in December, reflecting low labor market confidence in the outlooks for hiring and job-finding,” said Mitchell Barnes, Economist at The Conference Board.

On top of this, Trump added tariffs to pressure some European countries over Greenland. This is like shooting US growth in the foot because it will only add to the headwinds slowing economic growth and labor market hiring. To be clear, we are not yet in a stagflationary recession but in more of an economic slowdown or “mild stagnation.” Inflation may get help from productivity increases in AI and stable oil prices, but this effect will be offset by supply disruptions and cost increases for consumers and producers that result from more tariffs. Also, health care costs are on the increase and will show up in inflation indexes as well. Thus, the stagflation monster is thinking about huffing and puffing at the door while Trump’s better jobs and higher wages have long disappeared from reality.

Within this context I have a few decent stocks and funds to recommend, while at the same time recommending caution and the accumulation of savings to be used during a possible market sell-off. For growth consider: F, PROP, SWKS, AAUC, HTH, ARMN, ADEI, EVER, NXGPY, ANGO, BDTX, TKAMY, FIVN, SKWD, DG, ARRY, TX, AUGO, ARTC, CGAU, KGC, REVG, ILPT, GM and TRUP. For dividends and growth: BNPQY, CRRFY, SUN, F, PAA, TIMB, CTO, MBGYY and SWKS. During the previous three months the ETFs with the highest growth rates were: PSI, SOXX, SOXQ, SMH and KBE.

For those interested in CEFs for income and portfolio growth there are two main categories. For taxable investment portfolios consider: ETB, ETV, ETW, EVT, BXMY, DIAX, QQQX, HTD, PDT, PML and FLC. For tax sheltered portfolios such as 401Ks that are subject to RMDs consider: BTX, BST, BSTZ, NBXG, RLTY, JRS, PGZ, DFG, ZTR, MEGI, HQH, HQL, BME, BMEZ, ECF, BCV, NCV and NCZ. Keep in mind that CEFs tend to preserve there NAVs and will lower their dividends during a recession in order to do so. Also, the market price of a fund can differ from its NAV. All funds suggested are priced at a discount to their NAVs and may tend to increase in value as a result. As always, good investing!

The post January Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

Leading economic indicators — a more objective predictor of future economic activity — forecast continued economic growth and stability through the rest of this year. This doesn’t rule out a correction in the markets though. Yet, it doesn’t seem reasonable to worry all that much about it. Pick stocks and funds that are still doing well within the context of market highs and generally sideways trading and you can still produce portfolio gains. That said, consider the stocks KSS, ZIM, ITOCY, AOSL, CVLG, BVH, TMST, NEXA, ABG, PAG, LAD, GPI, and WIRE for growth. For dividends, take a look at AGNC, NLY, LUMN, and APAM. The 5 top performing ETFs at this time are: IYH, XLV, VHT, VIG, and DGRO.

Recently I moved some cash in my BLOCKFI account into Bitcoin, Lite Coin, and Ethereum. So far, this momentum trade appears to be working out quite well. I don’t expect to hold these positions for ever but do see the potential for quick gains before switching back to cash at 8% and then holding that until another momentum trade opportunity arises.

Until next time, Good Investing!

The post August Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

Expect the market to have short rallies like we just had and then another bounce off of a short-term bottom. Some bottoms may be lower than previous bottoms. Eventually, things will get better and that is exactly when market sentiment will hit the bottom along with the overall market.

Already, new Covid-19 cases in Italy have leveled off to a constant rate, as opposed to an increasing rate. In other words, the first derivative is now equal to zero, if the second derivative becomes negative then we will truly have a reason for better expectations regarding the course of this once in a century pandemic.

Interestingly, the event caused recession that was at first a negative supply-side shock has manifest an extreme negative demand-side shock to the macroeconomy. The strength of the demand-side shock is so strong it has created a bit of a temporary Phillip’s curve phenomena of increasing unemployment and decreasing inflation. This justifies the strong Monetary and Fiscal stimuluses that recently went into effect. Unfortunately, it is doubtful that unemployment rates will decrease and inflation increase as a result of the economic stimulus. Medical technology will advance, and along with containment of the virus’s spread, will eventually put an end to the problem. In the meantime, Good Investing is Not investing any cash reserves at all!

April 17 Update:

The S & P probably bottomed in late March. The recovery will be like slogging through a marsh or bog and will take a very, very long time to get anywhere. The stock market will get ahead of itself at times and have to pull back and re-adjust. Only buy small amounts of funds or stocks on pull backs and be prepared to a long, long slog. Growth stocks to consider are: FRTA, TAC, PRAA, and PHI. Divided growth stocks are: PHI, BG, RGP, ACO, DIN, and TIGO and the best ETFs are QQQ, and XNTK. The best opportunity out there at the moment is O at around $50.00. Really good income funds include SPHD, PEY, O, BBN, GBAB, FLC, FFC, EXD, ETJ, BDJ, CII, BST, RNP, and RQI. Allowing the funds and stock you buy to DRIP or re-invest their dividends will pay off the most in the long-run. Good investing!

The post April Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

I am not recommending stocks or funds this month because it is best to hold all cash instead. Once the market fear index is at a maximum, only then will their be a market bottom. The coronavirus is no hoax as Pres. Trump claims. As a politician invested in the stock markets performance it is not surprising he would make such a claim. Unfortunately, the opposite is true. Worse, about the time the market prices in all the real negative effects of the virus outbreak, we will face the election and threat of Bernie Sanders. This could represent another downward “pricing in” spiral for which there will be no recovery until the B.S. threat is replaced by something more market friendly. That’s may outlook for now. Good luck!

The post March 2020 State of the Markets first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

There are changes to my personal portfolio from July. Specifically, I’m dropping EPR and CCMNX and adding PHD and BSL. These changes are now reflected in the updated portfolio.

Most stock analysts are weak at Open Economy Macroeconomics and tend to look only at the initial static effect on GDP from increased tariffs on China announced for Sept. 1st. This abstract view underestimates the vastness of the negative macroeconomic consequences of Trump’s tariffs. First, there is the uncertainty effect of erratic tariff policy that decrease investment and economic growth, second, there are specific industry effects on agriculture and technology (for which technology is another future growth driver), thirdly, there is increasing inflationary pressure in general that also puts upward pressure on longer-term interest rates which further hampers growth, fourthly, there is the effect of drawing in the Fed to support the tariffs which reduce our ability to fight the next recession, and finally, there are the initial static effects on GDP the brokers are pointing out. Be prepared, not surprised when the markets suddenly tank. Personally, I think a direct restriction on capital expenditure in China would be a better and stronger approach than tariffs and failed negotiations.

For those thinking that Fed rate cuts will temporarily lead to a boost in economic growth and the markets, which is certainly possible, I have some short-term recommendations from Zack’s rank 1 stocks. These stocks are expected to have about 30 to 90 days of increased relative performance and include: MTRN, ARNC, ENVA, OMP, DVA, and MTZ. Zack’s 1 ranked dividend growth stocks include NGLOY, BBL, BHP, FSUGY, PAGP, ARCC, and BCE. Currently, the top ranked ETFs are PSJ, VIG, JKH, FNY, and VOOG.

Alternatively, you could just hold my dividend re-investment funds and disregard the entire upcoming recession, which is essentially the Warren Buffet approach. In any case, Good Investing!

August 14 portfolio update:

Given recent market weakness I am dropping some funds from my personal portfolio that have smaller amounts of assets under management (AUM). These funds are MGF, FMY, PCM, and FFT. I am adding ETY because it is based on both domestic and foreign stocks. I have updated the portfolio from the July Stock and Fund picks with these changes.

August 15 portfolio update:

I am giving up on any positive long-term gains from MIE, a midstream MLP fund and deleting it from my portfolio of income earning CEFs.

Weeks 3 -4 (Aug. 19 – 30):

Trump is on the skids, meeting his Waterloo by trying the negotiate with the Communist Chinese. The Chinese win by never agreeing to any kind of a deal because that will end Trump’s re-election chances. This opens the door for the next socialist who, like Obama, will be good for gold prices. I’d look at stocking up on GGN because it pays a high monthly yield thanks to its low price and may offer capital gains while the Trump administrations circles the drain and the new socialist regime try’s to make everybody better off by increasing demand for everything through income redistribution while at the same time failing to pay for anything (making their proposals look good only on paper) and thereby destroying real production and supply. In other words, get ready for really long lines, wait times, and inefficiency.

Here is my updated monthly paying income and DRIP portfolio that is pretty much good for any scenario and includes GGN. I also added a risk-managed Eaton Vance fund (ETJ) to the mix.

The table is meant to substitute for an immediate annuity in terms of guaranteed income, with the benefit that you get to keep you capital instead of paying it to the insurance company offering the stream of payments. The first thing after a symbol’s stars, more of which indicates greater safety, is the historic risk/ return so L/H means low risk high returns, for example. My July post explains more about the table. Feel free to use the table however you wish. For example, any of the income funds can be held as DRIP stocks if you just want all growth. You never have to sell the DRIP stocks either because they will just buy themselves up faster during a stock market sell-off. As always, good investing!

The post August Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

Looks like things have decided to cool off and things are relatively stable. Trump and the Chinese can still cause a major disruption so be prepared. Since you can’t know when things might change and it is political rather than fundamental it is probably best to plan on holding through any disruption. That said, panic selling is always a buying opportunity so I’d have some cash on hand.

Stocks to look at for growth are JLL, CBRE, and CIGI. ETFs are BBH, FCOM, and OUSA. Dividend growth stocks to consider include AVH, RIO, WPP, and ASRT. Expect TLRY to soundly beat its expected earnings on 3/18/19. Good investing!

Weeks 2 – 3:

The yield curve inversion is not that big of a deal . . . but we always explain it away and then have a recession.  Generally, when short rates are greater than longer rates, it indicates a slowdown in economic growth because longer rates increase only if private sector investment borrowing coupled with inflation are increasing because of accelerating economic growth.  The US is slowing down a bit, but the economy remains on good footing.  It is global growth that is feeding back into the yield curve.  Our rates are simply higher and international capital flows are about ten times those of trade flows.  Foreign money flows in to buy US treasury bonds when foriegn rates fall, as they are now.  This bids up the dollar, which is relatively strong, along with bond prices.  This, in turn, decreases bond yields and explains a lot of the yield curve inversion.  Trump’s trade policies are at the heart of the global slowdown and will eventually lead to a recession in the US unless a deal with China is reached and trade isolationism ends before that happens.  Trump’s trade policies are also why the Fed cannot continue to reduce its balance sheet and prepare for the next recession.  A socialist in the White house would then want to use Keynsian fiscal policy to bury us for good in a insurmountable level of government debt. We would then be at the mercy of the IMF for access to credit (foreign capital inflows would dry up due to the lower credit rating).  We would be put on austerity measures (very high taxes) because of IMF conditionality requirements.  As with Greece we would expect to spend eternity digging our way out of the mess.

Now that the long-run path to austerity measures is laid down, lets consider the next 12 to 30 months.  The band will still be playing party music on the deck of the titanic and the markets should be going up. Consider the growth stocks IIPR, CAPL, CRMT, XLNX, AVX, and AVID.  ETFs that look strong are PSJ, XSW, and PXMG.  Dividend growth stocks are EQM and BGCP.  Good investing!     

The post March Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

More trade uncertainty for March 1st and looming government shutdown #2 are on the horizon. Have been all month so haven’t wanted to commit to anything in the stock market. The Chinese will be watching the compromise bill to avert the shutdown so as to guess how soft a deal Trump might accept. For those inclined to be in the market consider ARCH for growth; RC and RIO as dividend growth stocks; and the ETFs IHI and VOT. Good luck!

Week 2 – 4 (Feb. 18 – 28):

It appears that Pres. Trump will come up with some type of deal on trade with China. Unfortunately, it is unlikely that any deal will actually be a good one as Trump doesn’t understand the economics of trade. Still, any deal is better than the status quo. Thus, we will go from really bad, to somewhat less bad, which is an improvement, but far from optimal.

Overall the domestic US economy is still strong, but the stock market is running up to fast to be sustainable. Expect an eventual slow down. Otherwise, expect a sudden drop after a continued run up that is not sustainable.

With this caveat in mind, consider the growth stocks CATM, WIRE, and VIPS (a Chinese stock . . . and the first time I’ve recommended one of those for a long while). Dividend growth stocks include RC, RIO, and SUN. Excellent ETFs are JKH, VGT, and IYW. Good Investing!

The post February Stock Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

Fed interest rate hikes are the new source of market volatility.  Cramer says that he doesn’t like this market.  Given his experience, that’s a big red flag.  Cramer also suggests that the sell-off has begun.  Another red flag.   Generally, stocks do well during rising rates until, of course, the Fed goes too far.  Right now the Fed is still below a neutral discount rate or Fed funds rate target.  Thus, while the Fed is still accommodative, at some point the sell-off will be overdone and buying will once again dominate.  Once the Fed hits neutral, which shouldn’t be for about a year or so, then you will want to be much more wary.

I will only recommend a few stocks under these circumstances.  BPT is still going up strongly so you might just ride that for a while.  Others worth holding are near money’s such as MINT, USTB, FLTR, and ICSH.  These last ones pay 2 – 3% and are tied, more or less, to the Fed funds rate.  Thus they will pay more when the Fed increases rates.  BPT is an oil royalty trust and pays about 16% as a dividend.  You can still get that for October.  Moreover, it is going up along with expectations for higher oil and gas prices.  Leveraged inverses like TVIX and TZA are also possible as long as you are around to keep an eye on them.  That’s all I have for now.  Good investing!

Week 2 (Oct 8 – 12):

The selling is over or nearing an end.  Wednesday and Thursday created opportunities in my view.  If you think that buying a whiskey distillery just before the end of prohibition would have made you rich, then buying marijuana stocks now should also make sense.  October 17 and November 1 open the scope of the pot markets substantially.  During the sell off on Wednesday and Thursday I started positions in two ETFs,  HMLSF and MJ, which increased on Friday by 4.26% and 4.92% respectively.   I also bought the companies ACBFF, CGC, MMNFF, and TGODF which had respective Friday increases of 8.13%, 5.62%, 29.44%, and 8.94%.  I’d say that was pretty good money for the week!  If any of these stocks or funds pull back next week, you may want to consider building similar positions.  I think the long-run potential includes returns of 50% – 500% through 2019.  That is my advice for this week.  Good investing!

Week 3 (Oct. 15 – 19):  

The market may still be setting up for more selling so be ware.  Can’t yet call the bottom because what selling is still going on is pretty tame and organized.  Sold my cannabis stocks into Monday’s early morning buying and realized about a years worth of gains in just a few days.  Once Canopy (CGC) gets down to around $40, I’ll probably start to buy back in.  In the meantime you might want to research some growth stocks such as ANDE, SNDR, ARCB, and GLP.  A good ETF for the long-run but that measures market sentiment in the short-run is IHI.  I am watching IHI for an indication of the market bottom.  Other ETFs for long-run growth are XLV and VHT.  Some good dividend growth stocks to consider are ENLK and ARLP.

If you start any new positions I’d move slowly until the market looks healthier.  That might be when people either get used to higher nominal interest rates which were held at zero for far too long.

The reason they were so low for so long was that market socialist policies on the supply side of the economy during the previous administration slowed economic growth which led the Fed to try stimulating the economy on the expenditure side.  We were heading into another recession before the last election.  If Hillary had won we’d be there now.  After the last election, we had two supplied side positives (tax cuts and less regulation).  Then we added a negative supply-side policy involving trade obstruction (i.e., tariffs or equivalently tax increases).  Now we have another negative effect due to Fed tightening that adds even more uncertainty.  Yet, the Fed cannot slow interest rate increases much because it still has to unwind its balance sheet to get back to normal.  Selling off its financial assets lowers there prices and increases market interest rates.  Unwinding will take quite a while.  Thus, get used to this situation and the market volatility it causes.  Once there is over selling among stocks, there will be opportunities.  I’d keep ICSH and MINT loaded up and used to take advantage of market opportunities like the previous few weeks among pot stocks.  In the meantime they will reward you with increasing dividends because their returns are directly related to the Fed Funds rate.  Be sure to buy them on their ex-dividend dates which are the first of each month so as to get more shares for your money and preserve your capital.  Good “opportunistic” investing!

Week 4 (Oct. 22 – 31):

Selling before the midterms in November has probably ended.  That is the only uncertainty handled.   The Fed and Tariff policy remains.  Because of this, I think the systemic risk in the market is the government.  It offsets deregulation and tax cuts so that there is nothing left to propel the market forward other than economic fundamentals and earnings.  These are still fine.  Technical analysis suggests that the market is 1) oversold and that money must be put to work and 2) that there is likely more severe selling that will occur in the near future.  This is not a clear message so beware!

Consider the growth stocks ENVA and HSII if you feel safe enough to invest.  ETFs to consider for dividend income are HDV and OUSA.  An ETF for growth in healthcare is XLV.  My personal preference is to just hold ICSH and wait for its dividends to increase along with short-term interest rates.  Once the Fed causes a market crash that is yet more severe than we experienced in October, start looking for stocks with PE multiples below 15 with good future earnings potential.  If we get a trade deal with the EU and China, start looking sooner.  Gee, what market uncertainty could there still be?  Good luck and good investing!

The post October Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

Trade is still a negative while just about everything else (eg., domestic economy and GDP growth, relatively low real interest rates, and company earnings) are positives.

On a different issue, I don’t get why the NFL allows anyone to take a knee during the national anthem.  There are a billion and one things to protest and every player can take a knee for one reason or another such that no one stands.  This disrespects the nation and that we have free speech.  In other words, protest is what our nation represents and kneeling merely protests your own right to protest.  Too many knocks to the head perhaps?

On to stocks and funds.  Buy ATEYY, CONN, and RNR for growth.  Check out OSB for dividend growth.  A great ETF to consider is JSMD.  If you want to put money into a monthly paying mutual fund that is highly ranked and that always pays its dividend then consider FLARX.  FLARX yields 3.85% and tends to hold its value.   Other monthly paying cash or near cash related funds to consider are BLW, USAIX, and ICSH.  Good investing.

Week 2 (Sept. 10 – 14):

Watching stock indexes turn red with more tariffs.  Will there be any more positive news on this front?  Probably a deal with Canada, and then maybe the EU.  Both would be a welcome relief. I don’t think it matters with China that we get a deal.  I’d like to see all our firms doing business in China reallocate entirely to anywhere else.

As for investments, consider GNRC, ATEYY, and OXINF for growth.  Recommended dividend growth stocks are BGCP, ARLP, BGSF, GES, MCY, GLNCY, and OSB.  Growth oriented ETFs are IHI, FXL, XLM, and VGT.  Dividend ETFs with payouts directly related to increasing short-term interest rates are BLW, BGT, FRA, EFT, JRO, and JFR.  Mutual funds with returns related to short-term interest rates are BLDRX and BFRKX.  Two high paying dividend growth stocks that hold up will under economic downturns are MO and PM.  That’s all for this week.  Good investing!

Week 3 (Sept. 17 – 21):

Between now and when the negative effects of trade obstruction show up in economic data there is only the midterm elections.  Election noise will lead to market volatility and opportunity.  There may also be a year-end Santa rally.  Without trade deals as promised, trade effects will manifest themselves as job losses and greater inflation.  This will happen about the time economic stimulus from de-regulation and tax cuts begin to fade and interest rates rise to higher levels.  Prepare to exit the market at that time.  Holding cash at higher interest rates will be increasingly popular and funds like MINT, ICHS, and EFT will help in that regard.

In the meantime, the market and the economy looks solid.  Consider the stocks CBD and RHHBY for growth.   For dividend growth look at MCY.  Excellent growth oriented ETFs include IHI and BBH.  For the increasing interest rate environment, start looking at the ETFs EFT, FLTR, PPR, ICHS, MINT, and VRP.  Alternatively, a good mutual fund for rising rates is EABLX.  Good Investing!

Week 4 (Sept. 24 -28):

Anybody question whether September is a typically slow month for the stock market?  Glad it’s over.  Looking ahead to October, consider ZUMZ, VRS, GES, and TITN for growth.  Dividend growth stocks to take a look at are XAN and PAGP.  Additional growth oriented ETFs you may want to consider are FXL, VONG, and SPYG. As for growth oriented mutual funds, consider AGOZX and NYSAX.  Good investing!

The post September Market Beating Stock Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

The economy is just right.  Short-term calm and low volatility usually create a “smart-money” outflow and a short-term dip that you should buy . . . maybe by tomorrow.  Consider the growth stocks GTES, and OFG.  Look at the ETFs:  XLI, PSCI, and XSD.   Good dividend growth stocks are CVRR, STX, HCLP and TRTN.  No one can predict the future or the next recession so all attempts to do so are merely noise.  Trump’s anti supply side trade policy will probably be the culprit for any economic slowdown or recession.  It is a job and growth killer and will eventually offset the supply side boosters of deregulation and tax cuts.  Just when that will occur is anybody’s guess.  Good Investing!

Week 2 (June 11 – 15):

The Fed raises the expected GDP growth rate and becomes more hawkish in terms of adding one more interest rate hike to the previous three it planned for the year.  Between the Fed getting ready for the next recession by raising short-term rates (the discount rate directly and the federal funds rate target rate range) and Trump trade tactics that may or may not produce results, the seeds are being sown that will lead to a recession, but one that is most likely far, far down the road.  With an unlikely near term recession as the background assumption, I’d consider growth stocks such as:  CVX, CVTI, SIM, MKSI, TALO, and TOELY.  Good dividend growth stocks include M, GIS, LYB, BXM, RMP, NEW, BGS, TRTN, and especially T.  Thanks to the reduced North Korean nuclear risk, an ETF you might want to consider is FKO.  Good investing!

Week 3 (June 18 – 22):

Trump trade tactics v everything else = increased volatility appears the theme.  Personally, I’d like to pull all our companies out of China before the steal all our technology.  Their command economy government doesn’t yet realize the extent of their unfair trade practices even though we have given them most favored nation status (MFN) in trade which eliminates trade barriers in exchange for an implied agreement that the Chinese behave like good trading partners.  Time for Congress to rescind MFN to the Chinese.  Trade talk still isn’t tough enough to get through to them.  Thus, this must continue and even escalate.  At some point the stock market will get used to it and simply price it in.

For growth, consider the stocks APC and DIOD.  APC also pays a dividend.  Dividend growth stocks to consider include BSM, CQH, CLNS, and NEE.  Strong growth ETFs are PSCH, FDN, FYC, and BTEC.  The best mutual funds are KSCOX and TEFQX.  Mutual funds require a substantial initial investment but ETFs do not.  Good investing!

Week 4 (June 25 – 29):

Traders that overreacted on Monday created opportunities for those with diversified portfolios  cash on hand.  This is likely to occur again so be ready.  I’d also have some TZA in my portfolio as a hedge.  In the meantime consider DLPH, PGR, ARCB, and ADBE for growth.  ETFs to take a look at include IHI, IGM, and FTEC.  Mutual funds are FBSOX and HCEGX.  Let us hope that June ends well.  Good investing!

The post Free Stock Picks for June 2018 first appeared on MarchéEconomics.