There are changes to my personal portfolio from July. Specifically, I’m dropping EPR and CCMNX and adding PHD and BSL. These changes are now reflected in the updated portfolio.

Most stock analysts are weak at Open Economy Macroeconomics and tend to look only at the initial static effect on GDP from increased tariffs on China announced for Sept. 1st. This abstract view underestimates the vastness of the negative macroeconomic consequences of Trump’s tariffs. First, there is the uncertainty effect of erratic tariff policy that decrease investment and economic growth, second, there are specific industry effects on agriculture and technology (for which technology is another future growth driver), thirdly, there is increasing inflationary pressure in general that also puts upward pressure on longer-term interest rates which further hampers growth, fourthly, there is the effect of drawing in the Fed to support the tariffs which reduce our ability to fight the next recession, and finally, there are the initial static effects on GDP the brokers are pointing out. Be prepared, not surprised when the markets suddenly tank. Personally, I think a direct restriction on capital expenditure in China would be a better and stronger approach than tariffs and failed negotiations.

For those thinking that Fed rate cuts will temporarily lead to a boost in economic growth and the markets, which is certainly possible, I have some short-term recommendations from Zack’s rank 1 stocks. These stocks are expected to have about 30 to 90 days of increased relative performance and include: MTRN, ARNC, ENVA, OMP, DVA, and MTZ. Zack’s 1 ranked dividend growth stocks include NGLOY, BBL, BHP, FSUGY, PAGP, ARCC, and BCE. Currently, the top ranked ETFs are PSJ, VIG, JKH, FNY, and VOOG.

Alternatively, you could just hold my dividend re-investment funds and disregard the entire upcoming recession, which is essentially the Warren Buffet approach. In any case, Good Investing!

August 14 portfolio update:

Given recent market weakness I am dropping some funds from my personal portfolio that have smaller amounts of assets under management (AUM). These funds are MGF, FMY, PCM, and FFT. I am adding ETY because it is based on both domestic and foreign stocks. I have updated the portfolio from the July Stock and Fund picks with these changes.

August 15 portfolio update:

I am giving up on any positive long-term gains from MIE, a midstream MLP fund and deleting it from my portfolio of income earning CEFs.

Weeks 3 -4 (Aug. 19 – 30):

Trump is on the skids, meeting his Waterloo by trying the negotiate with the Communist Chinese. The Chinese win by never agreeing to any kind of a deal because that will end Trump’s re-election chances. This opens the door for the next socialist who, like Obama, will be good for gold prices. I’d look at stocking up on GGN because it pays a high monthly yield thanks to its low price and may offer capital gains while the Trump administrations circles the drain and the new socialist regime try’s to make everybody better off by increasing demand for everything through income redistribution while at the same time failing to pay for anything (making their proposals look good only on paper) and thereby destroying real production and supply. In other words, get ready for really long lines, wait times, and inefficiency.

Here is my updated monthly paying income and DRIP portfolio that is pretty much good for any scenario and includes GGN. I also added a risk-managed Eaton Vance fund (ETJ) to the mix.

The table is meant to substitute for an immediate annuity in terms of guaranteed income, with the benefit that you get to keep you capital instead of paying it to the insurance company offering the stream of payments. The first thing after a symbol’s stars, more of which indicates greater safety, is the historic risk/ return so L/H means low risk high returns, for example. My July post explains more about the table. Feel free to use the table however you wish. For example, any of the income funds can be held as DRIP stocks if you just want all growth. You never have to sell the DRIP stocks either because they will just buy themselves up faster during a stock market sell-off. As always, good investing!

The post August Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

As opposed to just kicking the can down the road and giving the Chinese spy company Huawei a life-line, the bullish bias in the market has interpreted the trade truce with China as an actual trade deal . As you know, I’m not in favor of doing any business with the Communist Chinese government or it’s enterprise front Huawei. The Fed rate cut is still on the table and this feeds into the bullishness of the current market. Also, there are many investors that are positioned defensively which means there is lots of money that can be more aggressively allocated if conditions appear favorable.

But just now the foolish Trump administration advanced the idea of new tariffs on the EU. The reason is that Airbus is subsidized and that hurts Boeing. The WTO has authorized countervailing tariffs, but they apply only to Airbus and are intended to offset the advantage of subsidies. Unfortunately, the badly misguided Trump administration sees the WTO ruling as an excuse to put tariffs on a whole array of EU products. This caused the market rally to pause this morning. As Arthur Laffer (a well known supply-side economist) points out, tariffs are a bad thing in the long-run. As an anti-supply-side policy they slow economic activity in the US and around the globe. Already, they have more than offset the positive supply-side effects of US tax cuts and regulatory relief. This will only get worse. The US domestic economy is slowing down and the tariffs, which constrain the Feds ability to reduce its balance sheet in preparation for the next recession, will eventually put us into that recession . . . and with a Fed that has been badly compromised in its ability to offset the recession’s negative effects.

In the meantime, we are still in the short-run. Moreover, the short-run and long-run or only subjectively interpretable periods for which there is no way to predict when one period becomes the other. Thus, one can only keep an eye on relevant data such as declining forward looking market indicators . . . which are starting to diminish consistently. For a short while after an economic downturn occurs, the market will continue to climb before it turns negative as well. This gives us some time, possibly a year or two, before things might turn ugly . . . unless, of course, these tariffs come to an end and we return to the path of globalization, increased domestic and international competition, and long-run economic growth.

Given that long-run (i.e., risk-on) investment is still warranted by the underlying bullish character of this market, consider growth stocks such as TGH, RIO, BBL, CMTL, DIOO, and HIBB. Dividend growth stocks such as OAK, CNSL, PAGP, GEO, SUN, VZ, and NGL are also good bets. A good ETF to bet on is JKH. Good investing!

Week 2 – 3 (July 8 – 19):

The Fed Chief’s testimony made it clear that the Fed must offset the negative effects of Trump’s tariff policies. Since Trump is erratically and unpredictably applying tariffs towards non-trade related issues, investment is declining rapidly. Business investment is the leading aspect of economic growth that increases physical capital, increases the need for labor and jobs, and increases productivity. Productivity, in turn, decreases prices and increases real wages. Uncertainty over when and where tariffs will be applied means that businesses are uncertain about where to move their supply chains or what to invest in. Uncertainty means businesses don’t invest . . . much like when Obama was throwing regulations around erratically and unpredictably. Remember that the Fed had to maintain a zero Federal fund rate then as well. Thus, domestic economic growth is being hampered and upward pricing pressure is growing. That said, no recession is yet in sight and the stock market still appears in good shape. In fact, a lot of money is in risk-off assets and the “all-in” characteristic of a market top does not yet exist.

Growth stocks to look at include RIO, OMP, BBL, BHP, and HIBB. Dividend growth stocks are BBL, CNSL, OMP, and OAK. The best ETFs are PSJ, JKH, and VIG. Good investing!

Week 4 (July 24 – 31):

I decided to include my personal portfolio for generating monthly income and portfolio growth. All stocks and funds are monthly payers and growth comes from those stocks and funds I hold for dividend reinvestment. Growth then occurs from stock/fund appreciation, dividend growth, and dividend compounding. Since growth must occur over the long-run it doesn’t matter what the state of the economy actually is in the short-run.

Notes:  Basically 4 categories follow any stock or fund’s symbol:  Risk/Return, Characteristics, and part of the month it goes ex-dividend.

(1) Number of stars designates my feeling for safety of investment principle, the more stars the better.

(2)  Risk/Returns are L = low, BA = below average, A = average, AA = above average, H = high.  For example, any fund with a low risk/high return would be designated L/H.

(3), Fund or stocks long-run characteristics such as “increasing nav (net asset value)/div (dividend),” IG or NIG stand for “investment grade,” or “not investment grade.”

(4) Beginning 1/3 of the month is BOM, middle 1/3 is MOM, and end of month is EOM.

Also, OV means that it is currently overvalued.  In fact, all funds are CEFs that sell either at premiums or discounts so finding an entry point to buy is a critical step.  Those that had steep selloffs at the end of last December (2018) or from 2007 – 2009 are also better buys during a sell-off.  Still, that may not happen when you want and if you are intending to hold and re-invest, then when you buy matters less because they will simply buy themselves up faster during a selloff and should also quickly regain their pre-selloff prices.  Thus, there is no need to sell them.

The top set of funds are the ones I use to generate monthly income.  The DRIP section are stocks/funds that I intend to hold for growth through appreciation, dividend re-investment, and dividend growth.  If no income is needed, any of the income generating funds can be held for compounding through dividend re-investment.  That said, a fund with a low (L) or below average (BA) return is less likely to grow like one with an above average (AA) or high (H) return.

The post July Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

The October sell-off has created opportunities for stock pickers.  On the other hand, Friday’s hot inflation read means the market is now sure of a Dec. Fed rate hike.  As Warren Buffet warns,  “Interest rates are like gravity to stocks.”  A more mechanical rationale for this phenomenon is that the higher the interest rate the higher is the discount rate on expected future earnings for stocks.  This simply lowers their present values.

If you’re cautious like me, simply hold cash or near cash funds that pay a dividend tied to short-term interest rates.  Cash isn’t going to change its value much, if at all.  The dividends, however, will increase along with Fed rate hikes.  This will also tend to increase the value of these funds over time.  For example, you can hold JPST, ICSH, USFR, and FLOT and be safe given the markets increased volatility.  Moreover, a severe sell-off leaves you holding money that you can then convert into opportunities in much lower stock prices.

In the meantime, some growth stocks you might want to consider are ARC, CRC, MOS, and USAK.  Growth oriented ETFs to look at include JJOFF, BJO, HDV, XLV, IHI, DGRO, and MGV.  Two good dividend growth stocks are AUO and MCY.  Good investing!

Week 2 (Nov. 12 – 16):

When you don’t like the market, be defensive.  In other words, making money requires positioning for the prospect of belter opportunities.  I am holding only ICSH, JPST, and FLRN.  If the market improves and doesn’t crash I will look at SPHD, PEY, and BST.  The main problem is that tariffs will drive the global economy into a recession and take the US with it.  The Fed can only accelerate this process by raising interest rates too fast.  They probably won’t though as they are aware of the global economic slowdown caused by tariffs.  However, failing to raise rates as expected will send a bad signal to the markets.  A crash might follow.  If you expect a crash, be in cash!  Good investing!

Week 3 (Nov. 19 – 23):

The market will either get better, get worse, or stay the same.  To end getting worse, there must be large volume and disorganized or panic driven sell-off.  Until then you must wait by holding cash in the form of ICSH, FLRN, JPST, USFR, and TFLO.  The Fed looks only at the economy to see if tightening and unloading its balance sheet assets continue to make sense.  To the stock market it looks like the Fed is taking the punch bowl away from market partiers.  That’s why you continue to hear from brokers things like, “. . . the Fed knows nothing!”  I’d ignore that.  The Fed must dampen inflation expectations by being a bit overly aggressive, not invert the yield curve, and sell its financial assets to keep the economy from overheating in the short-run.  It’s only the short-run that it can manage. So ignore that noise about the Fed.

The real problem is that Trump’s tariff policies are probably going to cause a global recession from which the US can not escape.  Dealing with the Chinese is required, but be done differently so as not to adversely effect our main trading partners in the EU.  Having the Congress take away  Chinese most favored nation (MFN) status would be a better strategy.  Prohibiting our companies from engaging in joint venters with the Chinese would be another.  Incentivizing companies to move their international operations to countries other than China is yet another strategy.  One could go on but you get the point.

If you want to consider a short-run growth stock try CONN.  Another thing to consider is the iShares Evolved Health care staples ETF which uses the symbol IEHS.  Otherwise, hold cash.  In the long-run, interest rates may continue an upward trend as the Federal budget will soon be comprised of only nondiscretionary entitlement expenditures such as Social Security.  All discretionary expenditures such as military funding will then require additional borrowing.  If a socialist is elected president, then there will be even more discretionary expenditures associated with government income redistribution that will require even more borrowing.  Moreover, the supply side of our economy will be destroyed and this represents our tax base.

This will put us in a situation like Greece.  Already, our gross national debt is above 100% of our economy’s GDP.  Before Obama, it was only 50%.  Naturally, Obama’s Keynesian fiscal stimulus expenditures not only failed to pay themselves back, they made everything worse.  Because of the rise of socialists, this situation is more likely to repeat itself than not.  Thus, you might want to just hold cash forever.  On the other hand, if the stock market gets low enough opportunities may once again appear.  Until then, good investing!

Week 4 (Nov. 26 – 30):

The Fed has softened up and considers the secular decline in the neutral discount and Federal funds rate targets as near.  That leaves the problem of trade protectionism of the Trump administration as the remaining headwind and major global problem.  Markets are on edge as the G-20 summit begins.  If China and the US have a more or less pleasant meeting, then the market should react positively.  Still, don’t expect a deal.  Eventually, trade protectionism that continues  will lead to a world-wide economic collapse.  Already the negative effects of employment loss in export industries and higher production and consumer costs (inflation) are showing up in the US.  Things can get much worse as continued protectionism will simply support a continuation of this trend.

In the meantime, those that want to be in the market might look at TITN and ABG as potential growth stocks to add.  A good dividend paying ETF is HDV.  Some defensive oriented ETFs that pay monthly are SPHD and PEY.  I also like JRO, DHS, and PDT for dividends and growth.   Three good dividend growth stocks are VLO, MO, and T.    A defensive but growth oriented ETF is IEHS.  The preferred stock LDP is now at a substantial discount to NAV and pays over 8%.  I would continue to hold cash or near cash funds like TFLO, JPST, ICSH, and USFR as the largest part of your portfolio.  These will reduce portfolio volatility and produce monthly dividends.  Good investing!

The post November Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

Fed interest rate hikes are the new source of market volatility.  Cramer says that he doesn’t like this market.  Given his experience, that’s a big red flag.  Cramer also suggests that the sell-off has begun.  Another red flag.   Generally, stocks do well during rising rates until, of course, the Fed goes too far.  Right now the Fed is still below a neutral discount rate or Fed funds rate target.  Thus, while the Fed is still accommodative, at some point the sell-off will be overdone and buying will once again dominate.  Once the Fed hits neutral, which shouldn’t be for about a year or so, then you will want to be much more wary.

I will only recommend a few stocks under these circumstances.  BPT is still going up strongly so you might just ride that for a while.  Others worth holding are near money’s such as MINT, USTB, FLTR, and ICSH.  These last ones pay 2 – 3% and are tied, more or less, to the Fed funds rate.  Thus they will pay more when the Fed increases rates.  BPT is an oil royalty trust and pays about 16% as a dividend.  You can still get that for October.  Moreover, it is going up along with expectations for higher oil and gas prices.  Leveraged inverses like TVIX and TZA are also possible as long as you are around to keep an eye on them.  That’s all I have for now.  Good investing!

Week 2 (Oct 8 – 12):

The selling is over or nearing an end.  Wednesday and Thursday created opportunities in my view.  If you think that buying a whiskey distillery just before the end of prohibition would have made you rich, then buying marijuana stocks now should also make sense.  October 17 and November 1 open the scope of the pot markets substantially.  During the sell off on Wednesday and Thursday I started positions in two ETFs,  HMLSF and MJ, which increased on Friday by 4.26% and 4.92% respectively.   I also bought the companies ACBFF, CGC, MMNFF, and TGODF which had respective Friday increases of 8.13%, 5.62%, 29.44%, and 8.94%.  I’d say that was pretty good money for the week!  If any of these stocks or funds pull back next week, you may want to consider building similar positions.  I think the long-run potential includes returns of 50% – 500% through 2019.  That is my advice for this week.  Good investing!

Week 3 (Oct. 15 – 19):  

The market may still be setting up for more selling so be ware.  Can’t yet call the bottom because what selling is still going on is pretty tame and organized.  Sold my cannabis stocks into Monday’s early morning buying and realized about a years worth of gains in just a few days.  Once Canopy (CGC) gets down to around $40, I’ll probably start to buy back in.  In the meantime you might want to research some growth stocks such as ANDE, SNDR, ARCB, and GLP.  A good ETF for the long-run but that measures market sentiment in the short-run is IHI.  I am watching IHI for an indication of the market bottom.  Other ETFs for long-run growth are XLV and VHT.  Some good dividend growth stocks to consider are ENLK and ARLP.

If you start any new positions I’d move slowly until the market looks healthier.  That might be when people either get used to higher nominal interest rates which were held at zero for far too long.

The reason they were so low for so long was that market socialist policies on the supply side of the economy during the previous administration slowed economic growth which led the Fed to try stimulating the economy on the expenditure side.  We were heading into another recession before the last election.  If Hillary had won we’d be there now.  After the last election, we had two supplied side positives (tax cuts and less regulation).  Then we added a negative supply-side policy involving trade obstruction (i.e., tariffs or equivalently tax increases).  Now we have another negative effect due to Fed tightening that adds even more uncertainty.  Yet, the Fed cannot slow interest rate increases much because it still has to unwind its balance sheet to get back to normal.  Selling off its financial assets lowers there prices and increases market interest rates.  Unwinding will take quite a while.  Thus, get used to this situation and the market volatility it causes.  Once there is over selling among stocks, there will be opportunities.  I’d keep ICSH and MINT loaded up and used to take advantage of market opportunities like the previous few weeks among pot stocks.  In the meantime they will reward you with increasing dividends because their returns are directly related to the Fed Funds rate.  Be sure to buy them on their ex-dividend dates which are the first of each month so as to get more shares for your money and preserve your capital.  Good “opportunistic” investing!

Week 4 (Oct. 22 – 31):

Selling before the midterms in November has probably ended.  That is the only uncertainty handled.   The Fed and Tariff policy remains.  Because of this, I think the systemic risk in the market is the government.  It offsets deregulation and tax cuts so that there is nothing left to propel the market forward other than economic fundamentals and earnings.  These are still fine.  Technical analysis suggests that the market is 1) oversold and that money must be put to work and 2) that there is likely more severe selling that will occur in the near future.  This is not a clear message so beware!

Consider the growth stocks ENVA and HSII if you feel safe enough to invest.  ETFs to consider for dividend income are HDV and OUSA.  An ETF for growth in healthcare is XLV.  My personal preference is to just hold ICSH and wait for its dividends to increase along with short-term interest rates.  Once the Fed causes a market crash that is yet more severe than we experienced in October, start looking for stocks with PE multiples below 15 with good future earnings potential.  If we get a trade deal with the EU and China, start looking sooner.  Gee, what market uncertainty could there still be?  Good luck and good investing!

The post October Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

Trade is still a negative while just about everything else (eg., domestic economy and GDP growth, relatively low real interest rates, and company earnings) are positives.

On a different issue, I don’t get why the NFL allows anyone to take a knee during the national anthem.  There are a billion and one things to protest and every player can take a knee for one reason or another such that no one stands.  This disrespects the nation and that we have free speech.  In other words, protest is what our nation represents and kneeling merely protests your own right to protest.  Too many knocks to the head perhaps?

On to stocks and funds.  Buy ATEYY, CONN, and RNR for growth.  Check out OSB for dividend growth.  A great ETF to consider is JSMD.  If you want to put money into a monthly paying mutual fund that is highly ranked and that always pays its dividend then consider FLARX.  FLARX yields 3.85% and tends to hold its value.   Other monthly paying cash or near cash related funds to consider are BLW, USAIX, and ICSH.  Good investing.

Week 2 (Sept. 10 – 14):

Watching stock indexes turn red with more tariffs.  Will there be any more positive news on this front?  Probably a deal with Canada, and then maybe the EU.  Both would be a welcome relief. I don’t think it matters with China that we get a deal.  I’d like to see all our firms doing business in China reallocate entirely to anywhere else.

As for investments, consider GNRC, ATEYY, and OXINF for growth.  Recommended dividend growth stocks are BGCP, ARLP, BGSF, GES, MCY, GLNCY, and OSB.  Growth oriented ETFs are IHI, FXL, XLM, and VGT.  Dividend ETFs with payouts directly related to increasing short-term interest rates are BLW, BGT, FRA, EFT, JRO, and JFR.  Mutual funds with returns related to short-term interest rates are BLDRX and BFRKX.  Two high paying dividend growth stocks that hold up will under economic downturns are MO and PM.  That’s all for this week.  Good investing!

Week 3 (Sept. 17 – 21):

Between now and when the negative effects of trade obstruction show up in economic data there is only the midterm elections.  Election noise will lead to market volatility and opportunity.  There may also be a year-end Santa rally.  Without trade deals as promised, trade effects will manifest themselves as job losses and greater inflation.  This will happen about the time economic stimulus from de-regulation and tax cuts begin to fade and interest rates rise to higher levels.  Prepare to exit the market at that time.  Holding cash at higher interest rates will be increasingly popular and funds like MINT, ICHS, and EFT will help in that regard.

In the meantime, the market and the economy looks solid.  Consider the stocks CBD and RHHBY for growth.   For dividend growth look at MCY.  Excellent growth oriented ETFs include IHI and BBH.  For the increasing interest rate environment, start looking at the ETFs EFT, FLTR, PPR, ICHS, MINT, and VRP.  Alternatively, a good mutual fund for rising rates is EABLX.  Good Investing!

Week 4 (Sept. 24 -28):

Anybody question whether September is a typically slow month for the stock market?  Glad it’s over.  Looking ahead to October, consider ZUMZ, VRS, GES, and TITN for growth.  Dividend growth stocks to take a look at are XAN and PAGP.  Additional growth oriented ETFs you may want to consider are FXL, VONG, and SPYG. As for growth oriented mutual funds, consider AGOZX and NYSAX.  Good investing!

The post September Market Beating Stock Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

Back from 3 plus weeks of vacation.  The office staff is back to work.

Here are some pictures taken during my time away from my computer.  Guess where?

Growth stocks to consider:  SNDR, VRS, VSI, and ZBRA.  SNDR pays a small dividend.  New dividend growth stocks for your retirement portfolios might include OSB and GLNCY.  The best ETFs are JSML, RZG, and VIOG.

The collapse of the Turkish currency that makes them less able to pay foreign denominated debt obligations is hurting the markets.  The IMF will likely come to the rescue soon, which is typical in a currency crises.  Expect the situation to die down at some point.  In the mean time, good investing!

Week 3 (August 20 – 24):

Busy and Tia are recommending that you consider the following growth stocks:  ARC, HNGR, and NOA.  For dividend growth, consider:  T, LADR, BGCP, CQH, MIC, NEWT, VNOM, and WPP.  The best growth ETFs are JSML, RZG, VIOG, and SLYG.  ETFs for dividend growth are DVY, DHS, RDIV, and PEY.  If you live in California and want to earn 5.28% while avoiding both California and Federal Taxes, consider BFZ.  Good Investing!

Week 4 (August 27 – 31):

The faster Trump moves to negotiate and undue his trade obstructionism the faster will the economy and the stock market grow.  At the moment trade obstructionism is putting on the brakes.  Luckily the economy and earnings have strong enough momentum on their side to overcome the brake.  Given that, consider looking at  BRSS, VRS, OSB, and VSI for growth.  OSB is also an excellent addition to anyone’s dividend growth portfolio.  High risk, high growth ETFs are BBH and RZG.  BBH focuses on biotech stocks and RZG focuses on the S&P Small Cap  600 for pure growth.  That’s all I have for August.  Football season is underway.  Good investing!

The post August Market Beating Stock Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

If Pres. Trump makes a trade deal to reduce tariffs (taxes on imports) it will be pro supply side along with the earlier tax cuts and deregulation.  If he stays protectionist, economic growth will slow, both domestically and globally.  The later problem may even lead to a recession.  Within that context of uncertainty, I’ll recommend the following growth stocks:  AY, GLNCY, GBX, MRO, NCS, CIVI, and CONN.  Strong dividend growth comes with GLNCY.  Also, EQIX offers strong dividend growth although it is relatively expensive.  Strong ETFs for long-run growth are RZG, JSML, and PSCH.  Good Investing!

Week 2 (July 9 – 13):

In the U.S., markets seem to have priced in the negative effects of the trade war versus the positive effects of earnings and economic growth.  This means that the overall market will end the year about where it is now.  Stock picking is even more important as only a handful of “other than average” stocks will handily beat the market.  For growth, consider ORN.  For dividend growth consider BHR, CQH, CNXM, and CLNY.  The best growth oriented ETFs include FDN, PSCH, and PNQI.  Good investing!

The post Free Market Beating Stock Picks for July first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

The economy is just right.  Short-term calm and low volatility usually create a “smart-money” outflow and a short-term dip that you should buy . . . maybe by tomorrow.  Consider the growth stocks GTES, and OFG.  Look at the ETFs:  XLI, PSCI, and XSD.   Good dividend growth stocks are CVRR, STX, HCLP and TRTN.  No one can predict the future or the next recession so all attempts to do so are merely noise.  Trump’s anti supply side trade policy will probably be the culprit for any economic slowdown or recession.  It is a job and growth killer and will eventually offset the supply side boosters of deregulation and tax cuts.  Just when that will occur is anybody’s guess.  Good Investing!

Week 2 (June 11 – 15):

The Fed raises the expected GDP growth rate and becomes more hawkish in terms of adding one more interest rate hike to the previous three it planned for the year.  Between the Fed getting ready for the next recession by raising short-term rates (the discount rate directly and the federal funds rate target rate range) and Trump trade tactics that may or may not produce results, the seeds are being sown that will lead to a recession, but one that is most likely far, far down the road.  With an unlikely near term recession as the background assumption, I’d consider growth stocks such as:  CVX, CVTI, SIM, MKSI, TALO, and TOELY.  Good dividend growth stocks include M, GIS, LYB, BXM, RMP, NEW, BGS, TRTN, and especially T.  Thanks to the reduced North Korean nuclear risk, an ETF you might want to consider is FKO.  Good investing!

Week 3 (June 18 – 22):

Trump trade tactics v everything else = increased volatility appears the theme.  Personally, I’d like to pull all our companies out of China before the steal all our technology.  Their command economy government doesn’t yet realize the extent of their unfair trade practices even though we have given them most favored nation status (MFN) in trade which eliminates trade barriers in exchange for an implied agreement that the Chinese behave like good trading partners.  Time for Congress to rescind MFN to the Chinese.  Trade talk still isn’t tough enough to get through to them.  Thus, this must continue and even escalate.  At some point the stock market will get used to it and simply price it in.

For growth, consider the stocks APC and DIOD.  APC also pays a dividend.  Dividend growth stocks to consider include BSM, CQH, CLNS, and NEE.  Strong growth ETFs are PSCH, FDN, FYC, and BTEC.  The best mutual funds are KSCOX and TEFQX.  Mutual funds require a substantial initial investment but ETFs do not.  Good investing!

Week 4 (June 25 – 29):

Traders that overreacted on Monday created opportunities for those with diversified portfolios  cash on hand.  This is likely to occur again so be ready.  I’d also have some TZA in my portfolio as a hedge.  In the meantime consider DLPH, PGR, ARCB, and ADBE for growth.  ETFs to take a look at include IHI, IGM, and FTEC.  Mutual funds are FBSOX and HCEGX.  Let us hope that June ends well.  Good investing!

The post Free Stock Picks for June 2018 first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

Adjustment from April:  I recommended an Argentine utility company EDN that is very profitable and growing more so over time.  However, the Argentine currency problem continues to worsen which creates a currency translation problem for EDN.  Eventually, EDN will become very cheap and a great buy, but may continue to fall in value due to the weakening Argentine Peso in the nearer term.  Either get out of any position you have now and wait until the Peso stabilizes before going back in or wait to start a position in the future when EDN is a better buy.

Week 2 (May 7 – 11):

Money is coming back in.  The bull is once again ready to resume its run.  Buy JLL, GHDX, QNST, and CVRR as growth stocks.  CVRR is also a dividend growth stock.  Buy the ETF FTXL, but be ready for some volatility.  The best mutual fund is SMPSX.  I also have bught a little TVIX for assurance against future volatility as it is down into the $5’s.  Good Investing!

Week 3 (May 14 – 18):

The market seems to wake up and eat Korean fish snacks every morning for breakfast.  But then, after realizing it’s mistake, it recovers.  I’ll call that the state of the market for now.  Luckily, all things wear out:  Strong and steady gains, turn to a sell-off.  A sell-off turns to Korean fish snacks and volatility.  Korean fish snacks and volatility then turn into another leg up . . . eventually?  Be prepared.  That said, consider the ETF for small cap industrials PSCI.  Then consider the dividend growth stock PGR.  For a mutual fund, consider FKCSX for small cap growth.  If you want dividends and potential growth there is insider buying in GHY, which seems like a bet on interest rates going up.  Good investing!

Week 4 May (May 21 – 31):

I wanted to let market volatility play out a bit before making recommendations for this last period in May.  Buying the current dip should pay off.  Dividend growth stocks are AYR, BP, TEGP, and NRZ.  A good growth stock is HFC.  The ETF for growth is XLY.  The best mutual fund is TEFQX.  High yield junk bond funds and preferred CEFs have net asset values that move in the opposit direction of interest rates, just like with bonds.  At some point, interest rates will likely continue to increase which makes these funds risky.  With the exception of maybe BIT, I’d avoid those.  Good investing!

The post May Market Beating Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

Trade and other fears have increased market volatility, but the macro economy and earnings growth remain strong.  We also don’t know how the contradictory supply side policies of anti-trade v. tax and regulation decreases will play out.  We hope that the latter will be enough to give us net gains.  With that, I’d recommend the following stocks:  ARC, DYN, NTNX, and WMS.  Dividend growth stocks that are also more defensive in nature are:  HAS, MO, CVS, WBA, and T.  An excellent mutual fund is FDLSX.  A good high-yield dividend stock is ETP with a dividend coverage ration of 1.3 and a yield of 13.3%..  Some excellent ETFs are XAR, FTXL, and JPMV.  An oversold CEF (closed end fund) is EOI.  An undervalued REIT is EPR.  A CEF that specializes in buying undervalued CEFs goes by the ticker CEFS and yields about 8%.  Good investing!

Substitution error:  Remove RCS.

For week 2 (April 9 – 13):  Can’t predict the market other than expectations for this upcoming earnings period are high.  This might backfire if actual earnings disappoint.  Geopolitical and trade risks remain a problem.  That said, consider stocks such as MT, X, CC, CEIX, and RUTH.  ETFs to look at include PPA, FBT, ITA, JPMV, and FTXL.  Some of these pay dividends but are primarily growth oriented.  The least risky is JPMV.  CEFs with higher yields are FLC, JFR, and PFO.  Each of these has a yield greater than 6% and pay monthly dividends.  PFO and FLC are also undervalued relative to their net asset values.  Mutual funds for growth or yield are BXPIX and FAGIX, respectively.    Good investing!

Substitution error:  Remove RCS.

Week 3 (4/16 – 4/20):

For growth stocks, consider WLH and KURRY.  For a growth oriented ETF consider XAR and FTXL.  An excellent muni bond fund (avoid federal taxes) to consider is TAIX.  The market correct appears over.  The FED has yet to prepare sufficiently for the next recession by raising short-term rates (federal funds rate) and causing it to occur anyway.  Earnings season and stock buybacks should propel the market forward.  Anti-trade policies that are also anti-supply side polices are the only headwinds to worry about.

Week 4 (4/23 – 4/30): 

It’s all about trade with China on the negative side versus earnings growth and economic growth on the positive side.  In fact, economic GDP growth has nearly doubled from 1.5% for 8 years under the socialist Obama to about 2.9% under pro-market Trump.  Stick with and maybe add to BA and KRE in the base portfolio.  I’d also begin a position in EDN if you want long-term growth in a defensive and international sector.  Start small and add to it on down days.  Watch the MACD and RSI for indication that it’s price is turning upward.  Consider AAXN if you want a stock within one of the top investment sectors in the U.S.  For high yield in really good funds consider AWF, LDP, and GOF.   For dividends and growth there is always MAIN.  Notice how I’m getting really, really picky.  Good Investing! 

The post April Market Beating Stock/Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.