The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) Declined in December

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Updated: Monday, January 12, 2026

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) declined in December to 104.27, from a downwardly revised 104.64 in November. The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for payroll employment. When the Index increases, employment is likely to grow as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the Index indicate that a change in the trend of job gains or losses is about to occur in the coming months.

“The ETI slid further in December, reflecting low labor market confidence in the outlooks for hiring and job-finding,” said Mitchell Barnes, Economist at The Conference Board.

On top of this, Trump added tariffs to pressure some European countries over Greenland. This is like shooting US growth in the foot because it will only add to the headwinds slowing economic growth and labor market hiring. To be clear, we are not yet in a stagflationary recession but in more of an economic slowdown or “mild stagnation.” Inflation may get help from productivity increases in AI and stable oil prices, but this effect will be offset by supply disruptions and cost increases for consumers and producers that result from more tariffs. Also, health care costs are on the increase and will show up in inflation indexes as well. Thus, the stagflation monster is thinking about huffing and puffing at the door while Trump’s better jobs and higher wages have long disappeared from reality.

Within this context I have a few decent stocks and funds to recommend, while at the same time recommending caution and the accumulation of savings to be used during a possible market sell-off. For growth consider: F, PROP, SWKS, AAUC, HTH, ARMN, ADEI, EVER, NXGPY, ANGO, BDTX, TKAMY, FIVN, SKWD, DG, ARRY, TX, AUGO, ARTC, CGAU, KGC, REVG, ILPT, GM and TRUP. For dividends and growth: BNPQY, CRRFY, SUN, F, PAA, TIMB, CTO, MBGYY and SWKS. During the previous three months the ETFs with the highest growth rates were: PSI, SOXX, SOXQ, SMH and KBE.

For those interested in CEFs for income and portfolio growth there are two main categories. For taxable investment portfolios consider: ETB, ETV, ETW, EVT, BXMY, DIAX, QQQX, HTD, PDT, PML and FLC. For tax sheltered portfolios such as 401Ks that are subject to RMDs consider: BTX, BST, BSTZ, NBXG, RLTY, JRS, PGZ, DFG, ZTR, MEGI, HQH, HQL, BME, BMEZ, ECF, BCV, NCV and NCZ. Keep in mind that CEFs tend to preserve there NAVs and will lower their dividends during a recession in order to do so. Also, the market price of a fund can differ from its NAV. All funds suggested are priced at a discount to their NAVs and may tend to increase in value as a result. As always, good investing!

The post January Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

Leading economic indicators — a more objective predictor of future economic activity — forecast continued economic growth and stability through the rest of this year. This doesn’t rule out a correction in the markets though. Yet, it doesn’t seem reasonable to worry all that much about it. Pick stocks and funds that are still doing well within the context of market highs and generally sideways trading and you can still produce portfolio gains. That said, consider the stocks KSS, ZIM, ITOCY, AOSL, CVLG, BVH, TMST, NEXA, ABG, PAG, LAD, GPI, and WIRE for growth. For dividends, take a look at AGNC, NLY, LUMN, and APAM. The 5 top performing ETFs at this time are: IYH, XLV, VHT, VIG, and DGRO.

Recently I moved some cash in my BLOCKFI account into Bitcoin, Lite Coin, and Ethereum. So far, this momentum trade appears to be working out quite well. I don’t expect to hold these positions for ever but do see the potential for quick gains before switching back to cash at 8% and then holding that until another momentum trade opportunity arises.

Until next time, Good Investing!

The post August Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

There are changes to my personal portfolio from July. Specifically, I’m dropping EPR and CCMNX and adding PHD and BSL. These changes are now reflected in the updated portfolio.

Most stock analysts are weak at Open Economy Macroeconomics and tend to look only at the initial static effect on GDP from increased tariffs on China announced for Sept. 1st. This abstract view underestimates the vastness of the negative macroeconomic consequences of Trump’s tariffs. First, there is the uncertainty effect of erratic tariff policy that decrease investment and economic growth, second, there are specific industry effects on agriculture and technology (for which technology is another future growth driver), thirdly, there is increasing inflationary pressure in general that also puts upward pressure on longer-term interest rates which further hampers growth, fourthly, there is the effect of drawing in the Fed to support the tariffs which reduce our ability to fight the next recession, and finally, there are the initial static effects on GDP the brokers are pointing out. Be prepared, not surprised when the markets suddenly tank. Personally, I think a direct restriction on capital expenditure in China would be a better and stronger approach than tariffs and failed negotiations.

For those thinking that Fed rate cuts will temporarily lead to a boost in economic growth and the markets, which is certainly possible, I have some short-term recommendations from Zack’s rank 1 stocks. These stocks are expected to have about 30 to 90 days of increased relative performance and include: MTRN, ARNC, ENVA, OMP, DVA, and MTZ. Zack’s 1 ranked dividend growth stocks include NGLOY, BBL, BHP, FSUGY, PAGP, ARCC, and BCE. Currently, the top ranked ETFs are PSJ, VIG, JKH, FNY, and VOOG.

Alternatively, you could just hold my dividend re-investment funds and disregard the entire upcoming recession, which is essentially the Warren Buffet approach. In any case, Good Investing!

August 14 portfolio update:

Given recent market weakness I am dropping some funds from my personal portfolio that have smaller amounts of assets under management (AUM). These funds are MGF, FMY, PCM, and FFT. I am adding ETY because it is based on both domestic and foreign stocks. I have updated the portfolio from the July Stock and Fund picks with these changes.

August 15 portfolio update:

I am giving up on any positive long-term gains from MIE, a midstream MLP fund and deleting it from my portfolio of income earning CEFs.

Weeks 3 -4 (Aug. 19 – 30):

Trump is on the skids, meeting his Waterloo by trying the negotiate with the Communist Chinese. The Chinese win by never agreeing to any kind of a deal because that will end Trump’s re-election chances. This opens the door for the next socialist who, like Obama, will be good for gold prices. I’d look at stocking up on GGN because it pays a high monthly yield thanks to its low price and may offer capital gains while the Trump administrations circles the drain and the new socialist regime try’s to make everybody better off by increasing demand for everything through income redistribution while at the same time failing to pay for anything (making their proposals look good only on paper) and thereby destroying real production and supply. In other words, get ready for really long lines, wait times, and inefficiency.

Here is my updated monthly paying income and DRIP portfolio that is pretty much good for any scenario and includes GGN. I also added a risk-managed Eaton Vance fund (ETJ) to the mix.

The table is meant to substitute for an immediate annuity in terms of guaranteed income, with the benefit that you get to keep you capital instead of paying it to the insurance company offering the stream of payments. The first thing after a symbol’s stars, more of which indicates greater safety, is the historic risk/ return so L/H means low risk high returns, for example. My July post explains more about the table. Feel free to use the table however you wish. For example, any of the income funds can be held as DRIP stocks if you just want all growth. You never have to sell the DRIP stocks either because they will just buy themselves up faster during a stock market sell-off. As always, good investing!

The post August Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

As opposed to just kicking the can down the road and giving the Chinese spy company Huawei a life-line, the bullish bias in the market has interpreted the trade truce with China as an actual trade deal . As you know, I’m not in favor of doing any business with the Communist Chinese government or it’s enterprise front Huawei. The Fed rate cut is still on the table and this feeds into the bullishness of the current market. Also, there are many investors that are positioned defensively which means there is lots of money that can be more aggressively allocated if conditions appear favorable.

But just now the foolish Trump administration advanced the idea of new tariffs on the EU. The reason is that Airbus is subsidized and that hurts Boeing. The WTO has authorized countervailing tariffs, but they apply only to Airbus and are intended to offset the advantage of subsidies. Unfortunately, the badly misguided Trump administration sees the WTO ruling as an excuse to put tariffs on a whole array of EU products. This caused the market rally to pause this morning. As Arthur Laffer (a well known supply-side economist) points out, tariffs are a bad thing in the long-run. As an anti-supply-side policy they slow economic activity in the US and around the globe. Already, they have more than offset the positive supply-side effects of US tax cuts and regulatory relief. This will only get worse. The US domestic economy is slowing down and the tariffs, which constrain the Feds ability to reduce its balance sheet in preparation for the next recession, will eventually put us into that recession . . . and with a Fed that has been badly compromised in its ability to offset the recession’s negative effects.

In the meantime, we are still in the short-run. Moreover, the short-run and long-run or only subjectively interpretable periods for which there is no way to predict when one period becomes the other. Thus, one can only keep an eye on relevant data such as declining forward looking market indicators . . . which are starting to diminish consistently. For a short while after an economic downturn occurs, the market will continue to climb before it turns negative as well. This gives us some time, possibly a year or two, before things might turn ugly . . . unless, of course, these tariffs come to an end and we return to the path of globalization, increased domestic and international competition, and long-run economic growth.

Given that long-run (i.e., risk-on) investment is still warranted by the underlying bullish character of this market, consider growth stocks such as TGH, RIO, BBL, CMTL, DIOO, and HIBB. Dividend growth stocks such as OAK, CNSL, PAGP, GEO, SUN, VZ, and NGL are also good bets. A good ETF to bet on is JKH. Good investing!

Week 2 – 3 (July 8 – 19):

The Fed Chief’s testimony made it clear that the Fed must offset the negative effects of Trump’s tariff policies. Since Trump is erratically and unpredictably applying tariffs towards non-trade related issues, investment is declining rapidly. Business investment is the leading aspect of economic growth that increases physical capital, increases the need for labor and jobs, and increases productivity. Productivity, in turn, decreases prices and increases real wages. Uncertainty over when and where tariffs will be applied means that businesses are uncertain about where to move their supply chains or what to invest in. Uncertainty means businesses don’t invest . . . much like when Obama was throwing regulations around erratically and unpredictably. Remember that the Fed had to maintain a zero Federal fund rate then as well. Thus, domestic economic growth is being hampered and upward pricing pressure is growing. That said, no recession is yet in sight and the stock market still appears in good shape. In fact, a lot of money is in risk-off assets and the “all-in” characteristic of a market top does not yet exist.

Growth stocks to look at include RIO, OMP, BBL, BHP, and HIBB. Dividend growth stocks are BBL, CNSL, OMP, and OAK. The best ETFs are PSJ, JKH, and VIG. Good investing!

Week 4 (July 24 – 31):

I decided to include my personal portfolio for generating monthly income and portfolio growth. All stocks and funds are monthly payers and growth comes from those stocks and funds I hold for dividend reinvestment. Growth then occurs from stock/fund appreciation, dividend growth, and dividend compounding. Since growth must occur over the long-run it doesn’t matter what the state of the economy actually is in the short-run.

Notes:  Basically 4 categories follow any stock or fund’s symbol:  Risk/Return, Characteristics, and part of the month it goes ex-dividend.

(1) Number of stars designates my feeling for safety of investment principle, the more stars the better.

(2)  Risk/Returns are L = low, BA = below average, A = average, AA = above average, H = high.  For example, any fund with a low risk/high return would be designated L/H.

(3), Fund or stocks long-run characteristics such as “increasing nav (net asset value)/div (dividend),” IG or NIG stand for “investment grade,” or “not investment grade.”

(4) Beginning 1/3 of the month is BOM, middle 1/3 is MOM, and end of month is EOM.

Also, OV means that it is currently overvalued.  In fact, all funds are CEFs that sell either at premiums or discounts so finding an entry point to buy is a critical step.  Those that had steep selloffs at the end of last December (2018) or from 2007 – 2009 are also better buys during a sell-off.  Still, that may not happen when you want and if you are intending to hold and re-invest, then when you buy matters less because they will simply buy themselves up faster during a selloff and should also quickly regain their pre-selloff prices.  Thus, there is no need to sell them.

The top set of funds are the ones I use to generate monthly income.  The DRIP section are stocks/funds that I intend to hold for growth through appreciation, dividend re-investment, and dividend growth.  If no income is needed, any of the income generating funds can be held for compounding through dividend re-investment.  That said, a fund with a low (L) or below average (BA) return is less likely to grow like one with an above average (AA) or high (H) return.

The post July Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

April is starting off well.  Still have doubts about Trump’s trade policies, especially towards Mexico.  The China problem centers around forced technology transfer, or simply technology theft by a communist government.  We should never have let any of that happen.  But Mexico is simply a producer with higher bang- per- buck labor resources.  Any resources value per dollar is its productivity or value added divided by its price.  That’s the same principle as when we expect consumers to spend their next dollar on the highest bang- per- buck items defined as marginal utility divided by price.  Producers are doing the same or getting the most for their money with Mexico’s labor.  Mexican value added by labor is at least as good or higher than that of  UAW workers and the wage rate is lower.  Its a competitive market place and we should expect producers to try and beat their competition by as much as possible by allocating their productive resources so as to reduce costs and make the most money.  There is absolutely no reason not to recognize the comparatively greater value of Mexican labor in the auto industry.  To not recognize the efficiency gains and instead threaten tariffs on Mexico is completely missing the point about allocative efficiency gains from foreign production and trade.  This is not presidential behavior, but the kind of mediocre intellect expected of those without any education . . . which are also Trump’s constituents.  Not being able to separate Trump from the intellectual depravity of his non-competitive and isolationist constituents is troubling.

With that said, the coming election in 2020 places political constraints on upsetting the market with more tariffs or failing to finalize a trade deal with the Chinese that addresses intellectual property theft.  Thus, there is hope for market stability and for the bull market to continue.  Assuming we can stay long, consider FSUGY, HSII, KMDA, and KLYCY for growth.  Dividend growth stocks include AVH, CAPL, AYR, IMBBY, IPG, and LKSD.  ETFs to consider are PSJ, PXMG, XSW, and IGN.  Good investing!

Week 2 – 3:

Trump still doesn’t understand the economics of trade any more than Obama understood the nature of a market economy. Trump is ruining our economy through tariffs just like Obama ruined our economy with too many socialist based market regulations. If and when there is a recession, it will probably occur through negative effects on trade, just as we were heading into a recession at the end of Obama’s eight years. A Trump recession is not hard to see. Trump’s tariffs have already made it impossible for the Fed to reduce its balance sheet any further, leaving us vulnerable to the next economic downturn. The mechanics of a trade related recession occur through reducing economic activity because of new tariffs. Less economic activity will occur both domestically and abroad. Eventually jobs will be lost globally and domestically. Once that gains momentum, nothing will stop it from becoming worse, especially not the Fed. Of course, Trump will be pointing fingers at the Fed for reducing its balance sheet and raising rates, but the whole problem will be Trump.

Enter the socialist Bernie Sanders, probably after the next election. Bernie should write a book about why socialism doesn’t work. He clearly doesn’t understand why competitive market economies do work. He is not academically qualified to tell anybody anything about comparative economic systems. He just has a big ego and wants followers to drown in a sewer of poverty after succumbing to his sweet song of how everything we want will fall out of the sky at no cost. In reality, you have to give up something to get anything that is real. What will be given up to fund universal healthcare or Medicare for all and free college? Bet will be very vulnerable to attack because of a deeply weakened military at the very least. What about the wasted resources of free college which allows more students to complete valueless degrees. There goes a bunch of human capital down the drain. Moreover, what jobs will these students be able to get from a ruined market economy that is racked by higher taxation and socialist regulation? Will we have to go to guaranteed government jobs? If so, how much well will be lost overall? Bet everyone will love socialism then.

In the meantime, we still have a little room left in the bull market run, but probably not too much. Growth stocks to look at include AVID, EZPW, GIII, and CRMT. Dividend growth stocks include BKE, CAPL, PSXP, and WPP. The best ETFs are IGN, PXMG and FXL.

As for current market strategy. The market is again toping out in most sectors. Look for another pullback like at the end of 2018. I was 100% cash during that time and had money for the recovery that started at the very end of 2018. I’ll be looking to do that again, and fairly soon . . . say 3 – 5 months or so. In the mean time, good Investing!

The post April Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

Week 1 (Jan 1 – 8):

It is hard to read the market. The Fed still wants to pair down its balance sheet by letting its bonds expire or to sell them. By not buying or selling US treasury’s it will still cause interest rates to rise. Trump still doesn’t understand the more efficient allocation effects of specialization and trade so whatever deals he makes will still make us worse off by decreasing production and increasing prices, inflation, and unemployment. These effects are beginning to show up among exporters and some domestic producers already. Unfortunately, things will eventually get much worse. As a consequence, some predict the market will soon re-test new lows so be prepared.

In the meantime, things appear rosy. If you want to abandon your cash positions, which I am not ready to, then consider growth stocks such as VSI, dividend growth stocks such as CCR, ETFs such as XLV, XLK, and XLF, and small cap growth mutual funds such as SASMX, LAGWX, and PRNHX. Good Investing, but be careful.

Week 2/3 (January 7 – 18):

I’ve been watching this “V” bottom bounce. It is not widely trusted to continue. The rebound or bounce is now at the technical resistance level for the major indexes and appears to need a catalyst such as a US – China trade deal to continue much higher. They way I played the bottom bounce was with dividend paying funds that tend to regain or revert to their means. This results in higher yields and capital gains. These funds have a tendency to growth with the economy and have a defensive nature that makes them grow if things go badly. They are VRP, PEY, OUSA, and several defensive bond – income funds that hold high quality (investment grade) bonds that are relatively short duration in nature. Because it was more volatile (i.e., it sold off more) and has long term growth I also bought a little bit of BST for higher yield and capital gains. I may revert to money market funds again if resistance in the stock market is not breached and volatility suggests another sell-off is immanent.

In the mean time, there are some other good stocks and funds to consider. These are all Zack’s rank 1s: (1) Growth stocks are: PAG, DELL, RCII and RECN. (2) ETFs are: KIE, BTEC, HDV, OUSA and KBWP. (3) Dividend growth stocks are: BMA, SSW, AY, and ANF. As mentioned, I hold OUSA at the moment.

Even though these recommendations are Zack’s 1s with high growth, value, and momentum scores and high industry rankings, they cannot overpower the trend in the market so buy them only if the market is rising or remains in a trading range. Also, I’d check their technical indicators such as the RSI (relative strength index) and MACD for entry (buy) and exit (sell) points. Good investing!

Week 4 (Jan. 25 – 31):

There is far too much pessimism to expect a re-test of the near term market lows. More likely, the rally off of the lows will continue. Because fundamentals are good among many stocks and the economy, only excessive optimism will signal the rally’s end. For growth, consider DAN. Dividend growth should include taking a look at GMLP, MGP, NEP, and VIV. ETFs to consider are IHI, KIE, and VOT. All stocks and funds are Zack’s #1s with high sector ranks (except for DAN) and excellent value, growth, and momentum scores. Good investing!

The post January 2019 Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

The market is trying to price in the Trump trade protectionism policies.  It has been doing that since January of this year.  The only other politician advocating trade protectionism is Bernie Sanders.  This tells you that such a negative supply-side policy is going to be no good.  Let’s hope that Trump comes to an accord with the Chinese and the EU before we have a global recession.  In the meantime, do like that banks are doing and hold cash (ICSH and JPST) that currently pay about 2.5%.  The problem was never the Fed raising rates.  The Fed must now re-evaluate continuing to raise rates because of the negative effects of trade protectionism which are showing up sooner rather than later.   

Trade protectionism is analogous to promoting lazy and fat kids at a school track meet that are otherwise not competitive.  The good athletes must now miss the track meet and stay in school to do extra homework (e.g., they face retaliatory tariffs).  Only competitive exporting industries will invest and add jobs but retaliatory tariffs make this impossible.  Import competing industries are the lazy fat kids that are not competitive.  No one will buy their stock nor will there be more investment and hiring even with trade protectionism.  Net job loss and higher prices for producers and consumers will be the only results. 

This is consistent with supply-side policies that either increase or decrease the misery index (inflation plus unemployment).  Pro supply-side policies reduce the index while anti-supply side policies like trade protectionism increase it.  (Forget the Philips curve that assumes a trade-off between inflation and unemployment.  It is less relevant old school Keynesianism that assumes the government can manage the economy.  I’ll bet the Fed and Trump cause a recession instead.)

Of course, lets not forget that Bernie Sanders would combine trade protectionism with more business regulations (Like Obama) and higher taxes (Hillary) with the idea that we’ll all be better off under socialism.  Let’s hope the market never has to price in those policies as well.  But don’t hope too much.  Socialists are now the only environmentally oriented candidates and they will get a lot of votes as a result.  Too bad the republicans can’t pull their heads out of the sand about global warming.  Eventually we all face its consequences and must deal with it.  Don’t want to think about the wrecked economy we’ll have if socialists are the only ones taking action. 

Week 2 (Dec. 10 – 14):

If you are still in equities or bonds, you must feel as though you are stuck in the La Brea tar pits.  Soon you will be dead.  If, on the other hand, you have heeded my advise, you are in cash (e.g. ICSH or JPST) and safe.  Only those who are safe will be in position for future opportunities.  Unfortunately, skeletal remains recovered from the tar pits are many.  And that’s the way it is for the second week of December 2018.    

Week 3 (Dec. 19 – 20):

Things looking this bad, including the government shut down, can only mean its time to look at buying some stocks and funds. You might look at MBUU as a growth stock and XLV as a fund to consider. For dividends, consider PTIAX. These are all Zacks #1s.

Week 4 (Dec. 24 – 31):

Trump trade policy headwinds are the only problem causing market uncertainty. Moreover, it is the only problem the Fed has with normalizing its balance sheet by selling credit assets. In other words, Trump is in the way and not the Fed. Given that is the case, the steep sell-off in the markets has created some opportunities. I would take a look at stocks such as JLL, SNE, and RUSHA for growth. Consider the ETF HDV for dividends and growth. Purely dividend growth stocks are DM, GNL, and BRG. These are all Zack’s #1s with good value, growth, and momentum scores. Happy New Year and Good investing!

The post December Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

The October sell-off has created opportunities for stock pickers.  On the other hand, Friday’s hot inflation read means the market is now sure of a Dec. Fed rate hike.  As Warren Buffet warns,  “Interest rates are like gravity to stocks.”  A more mechanical rationale for this phenomenon is that the higher the interest rate the higher is the discount rate on expected future earnings for stocks.  This simply lowers their present values.

If you’re cautious like me, simply hold cash or near cash funds that pay a dividend tied to short-term interest rates.  Cash isn’t going to change its value much, if at all.  The dividends, however, will increase along with Fed rate hikes.  This will also tend to increase the value of these funds over time.  For example, you can hold JPST, ICSH, USFR, and FLOT and be safe given the markets increased volatility.  Moreover, a severe sell-off leaves you holding money that you can then convert into opportunities in much lower stock prices.

In the meantime, some growth stocks you might want to consider are ARC, CRC, MOS, and USAK.  Growth oriented ETFs to look at include JJOFF, BJO, HDV, XLV, IHI, DGRO, and MGV.  Two good dividend growth stocks are AUO and MCY.  Good investing!

Week 2 (Nov. 12 – 16):

When you don’t like the market, be defensive.  In other words, making money requires positioning for the prospect of belter opportunities.  I am holding only ICSH, JPST, and FLRN.  If the market improves and doesn’t crash I will look at SPHD, PEY, and BST.  The main problem is that tariffs will drive the global economy into a recession and take the US with it.  The Fed can only accelerate this process by raising interest rates too fast.  They probably won’t though as they are aware of the global economic slowdown caused by tariffs.  However, failing to raise rates as expected will send a bad signal to the markets.  A crash might follow.  If you expect a crash, be in cash!  Good investing!

Week 3 (Nov. 19 – 23):

The market will either get better, get worse, or stay the same.  To end getting worse, there must be large volume and disorganized or panic driven sell-off.  Until then you must wait by holding cash in the form of ICSH, FLRN, JPST, USFR, and TFLO.  The Fed looks only at the economy to see if tightening and unloading its balance sheet assets continue to make sense.  To the stock market it looks like the Fed is taking the punch bowl away from market partiers.  That’s why you continue to hear from brokers things like, “. . . the Fed knows nothing!”  I’d ignore that.  The Fed must dampen inflation expectations by being a bit overly aggressive, not invert the yield curve, and sell its financial assets to keep the economy from overheating in the short-run.  It’s only the short-run that it can manage. So ignore that noise about the Fed.

The real problem is that Trump’s tariff policies are probably going to cause a global recession from which the US can not escape.  Dealing with the Chinese is required, but be done differently so as not to adversely effect our main trading partners in the EU.  Having the Congress take away  Chinese most favored nation (MFN) status would be a better strategy.  Prohibiting our companies from engaging in joint venters with the Chinese would be another.  Incentivizing companies to move their international operations to countries other than China is yet another strategy.  One could go on but you get the point.

If you want to consider a short-run growth stock try CONN.  Another thing to consider is the iShares Evolved Health care staples ETF which uses the symbol IEHS.  Otherwise, hold cash.  In the long-run, interest rates may continue an upward trend as the Federal budget will soon be comprised of only nondiscretionary entitlement expenditures such as Social Security.  All discretionary expenditures such as military funding will then require additional borrowing.  If a socialist is elected president, then there will be even more discretionary expenditures associated with government income redistribution that will require even more borrowing.  Moreover, the supply side of our economy will be destroyed and this represents our tax base.

This will put us in a situation like Greece.  Already, our gross national debt is above 100% of our economy’s GDP.  Before Obama, it was only 50%.  Naturally, Obama’s Keynesian fiscal stimulus expenditures not only failed to pay themselves back, they made everything worse.  Because of the rise of socialists, this situation is more likely to repeat itself than not.  Thus, you might want to just hold cash forever.  On the other hand, if the stock market gets low enough opportunities may once again appear.  Until then, good investing!

Week 4 (Nov. 26 – 30):

The Fed has softened up and considers the secular decline in the neutral discount and Federal funds rate targets as near.  That leaves the problem of trade protectionism of the Trump administration as the remaining headwind and major global problem.  Markets are on edge as the G-20 summit begins.  If China and the US have a more or less pleasant meeting, then the market should react positively.  Still, don’t expect a deal.  Eventually, trade protectionism that continues  will lead to a world-wide economic collapse.  Already the negative effects of employment loss in export industries and higher production and consumer costs (inflation) are showing up in the US.  Things can get much worse as continued protectionism will simply support a continuation of this trend.

In the meantime, those that want to be in the market might look at TITN and ABG as potential growth stocks to add.  A good dividend paying ETF is HDV.  Some defensive oriented ETFs that pay monthly are SPHD and PEY.  I also like JRO, DHS, and PDT for dividends and growth.   Three good dividend growth stocks are VLO, MO, and T.    A defensive but growth oriented ETF is IEHS.  The preferred stock LDP is now at a substantial discount to NAV and pays over 8%.  I would continue to hold cash or near cash funds like TFLO, JPST, ICSH, and USFR as the largest part of your portfolio.  These will reduce portfolio volatility and produce monthly dividends.  Good investing!

The post November Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

Fed interest rate hikes are the new source of market volatility.  Cramer says that he doesn’t like this market.  Given his experience, that’s a big red flag.  Cramer also suggests that the sell-off has begun.  Another red flag.   Generally, stocks do well during rising rates until, of course, the Fed goes too far.  Right now the Fed is still below a neutral discount rate or Fed funds rate target.  Thus, while the Fed is still accommodative, at some point the sell-off will be overdone and buying will once again dominate.  Once the Fed hits neutral, which shouldn’t be for about a year or so, then you will want to be much more wary.

I will only recommend a few stocks under these circumstances.  BPT is still going up strongly so you might just ride that for a while.  Others worth holding are near money’s such as MINT, USTB, FLTR, and ICSH.  These last ones pay 2 – 3% and are tied, more or less, to the Fed funds rate.  Thus they will pay more when the Fed increases rates.  BPT is an oil royalty trust and pays about 16% as a dividend.  You can still get that for October.  Moreover, it is going up along with expectations for higher oil and gas prices.  Leveraged inverses like TVIX and TZA are also possible as long as you are around to keep an eye on them.  That’s all I have for now.  Good investing!

Week 2 (Oct 8 – 12):

The selling is over or nearing an end.  Wednesday and Thursday created opportunities in my view.  If you think that buying a whiskey distillery just before the end of prohibition would have made you rich, then buying marijuana stocks now should also make sense.  October 17 and November 1 open the scope of the pot markets substantially.  During the sell off on Wednesday and Thursday I started positions in two ETFs,  HMLSF and MJ, which increased on Friday by 4.26% and 4.92% respectively.   I also bought the companies ACBFF, CGC, MMNFF, and TGODF which had respective Friday increases of 8.13%, 5.62%, 29.44%, and 8.94%.  I’d say that was pretty good money for the week!  If any of these stocks or funds pull back next week, you may want to consider building similar positions.  I think the long-run potential includes returns of 50% – 500% through 2019.  That is my advice for this week.  Good investing!

Week 3 (Oct. 15 – 19):  

The market may still be setting up for more selling so be ware.  Can’t yet call the bottom because what selling is still going on is pretty tame and organized.  Sold my cannabis stocks into Monday’s early morning buying and realized about a years worth of gains in just a few days.  Once Canopy (CGC) gets down to around $40, I’ll probably start to buy back in.  In the meantime you might want to research some growth stocks such as ANDE, SNDR, ARCB, and GLP.  A good ETF for the long-run but that measures market sentiment in the short-run is IHI.  I am watching IHI for an indication of the market bottom.  Other ETFs for long-run growth are XLV and VHT.  Some good dividend growth stocks to consider are ENLK and ARLP.

If you start any new positions I’d move slowly until the market looks healthier.  That might be when people either get used to higher nominal interest rates which were held at zero for far too long.

The reason they were so low for so long was that market socialist policies on the supply side of the economy during the previous administration slowed economic growth which led the Fed to try stimulating the economy on the expenditure side.  We were heading into another recession before the last election.  If Hillary had won we’d be there now.  After the last election, we had two supplied side positives (tax cuts and less regulation).  Then we added a negative supply-side policy involving trade obstruction (i.e., tariffs or equivalently tax increases).  Now we have another negative effect due to Fed tightening that adds even more uncertainty.  Yet, the Fed cannot slow interest rate increases much because it still has to unwind its balance sheet to get back to normal.  Selling off its financial assets lowers there prices and increases market interest rates.  Unwinding will take quite a while.  Thus, get used to this situation and the market volatility it causes.  Once there is over selling among stocks, there will be opportunities.  I’d keep ICSH and MINT loaded up and used to take advantage of market opportunities like the previous few weeks among pot stocks.  In the meantime they will reward you with increasing dividends because their returns are directly related to the Fed Funds rate.  Be sure to buy them on their ex-dividend dates which are the first of each month so as to get more shares for your money and preserve your capital.  Good “opportunistic” investing!

Week 4 (Oct. 22 – 31):

Selling before the midterms in November has probably ended.  That is the only uncertainty handled.   The Fed and Tariff policy remains.  Because of this, I think the systemic risk in the market is the government.  It offsets deregulation and tax cuts so that there is nothing left to propel the market forward other than economic fundamentals and earnings.  These are still fine.  Technical analysis suggests that the market is 1) oversold and that money must be put to work and 2) that there is likely more severe selling that will occur in the near future.  This is not a clear message so beware!

Consider the growth stocks ENVA and HSII if you feel safe enough to invest.  ETFs to consider for dividend income are HDV and OUSA.  An ETF for growth in healthcare is XLV.  My personal preference is to just hold ICSH and wait for its dividends to increase along with short-term interest rates.  Once the Fed causes a market crash that is yet more severe than we experienced in October, start looking for stocks with PE multiples below 15 with good future earnings potential.  If we get a trade deal with the EU and China, start looking sooner.  Gee, what market uncertainty could there still be?  Good luck and good investing!

The post October Stock and Fund Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.

Trade is still a negative while just about everything else (eg., domestic economy and GDP growth, relatively low real interest rates, and company earnings) are positives.

On a different issue, I don’t get why the NFL allows anyone to take a knee during the national anthem.  There are a billion and one things to protest and every player can take a knee for one reason or another such that no one stands.  This disrespects the nation and that we have free speech.  In other words, protest is what our nation represents and kneeling merely protests your own right to protest.  Too many knocks to the head perhaps?

On to stocks and funds.  Buy ATEYY, CONN, and RNR for growth.  Check out OSB for dividend growth.  A great ETF to consider is JSMD.  If you want to put money into a monthly paying mutual fund that is highly ranked and that always pays its dividend then consider FLARX.  FLARX yields 3.85% and tends to hold its value.   Other monthly paying cash or near cash related funds to consider are BLW, USAIX, and ICSH.  Good investing.

Week 2 (Sept. 10 – 14):

Watching stock indexes turn red with more tariffs.  Will there be any more positive news on this front?  Probably a deal with Canada, and then maybe the EU.  Both would be a welcome relief. I don’t think it matters with China that we get a deal.  I’d like to see all our firms doing business in China reallocate entirely to anywhere else.

As for investments, consider GNRC, ATEYY, and OXINF for growth.  Recommended dividend growth stocks are BGCP, ARLP, BGSF, GES, MCY, GLNCY, and OSB.  Growth oriented ETFs are IHI, FXL, XLM, and VGT.  Dividend ETFs with payouts directly related to increasing short-term interest rates are BLW, BGT, FRA, EFT, JRO, and JFR.  Mutual funds with returns related to short-term interest rates are BLDRX and BFRKX.  Two high paying dividend growth stocks that hold up will under economic downturns are MO and PM.  That’s all for this week.  Good investing!

Week 3 (Sept. 17 – 21):

Between now and when the negative effects of trade obstruction show up in economic data there is only the midterm elections.  Election noise will lead to market volatility and opportunity.  There may also be a year-end Santa rally.  Without trade deals as promised, trade effects will manifest themselves as job losses and greater inflation.  This will happen about the time economic stimulus from de-regulation and tax cuts begin to fade and interest rates rise to higher levels.  Prepare to exit the market at that time.  Holding cash at higher interest rates will be increasingly popular and funds like MINT, ICHS, and EFT will help in that regard.

In the meantime, the market and the economy looks solid.  Consider the stocks CBD and RHHBY for growth.   For dividend growth look at MCY.  Excellent growth oriented ETFs include IHI and BBH.  For the increasing interest rate environment, start looking at the ETFs EFT, FLTR, PPR, ICHS, MINT, and VRP.  Alternatively, a good mutual fund for rising rates is EABLX.  Good Investing!

Week 4 (Sept. 24 -28):

Anybody question whether September is a typically slow month for the stock market?  Glad it’s over.  Looking ahead to October, consider ZUMZ, VRS, GES, and TITN for growth.  Dividend growth stocks to take a look at are XAN and PAGP.  Additional growth oriented ETFs you may want to consider are FXL, VONG, and SPYG. As for growth oriented mutual funds, consider AGOZX and NYSAX.  Good investing!

The post September Market Beating Stock Picks first appeared on MarchéEconomics.