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Stocks of the Week

Category

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October Stock and Fund Picks

The last quarter appears to hinge on whether economist's negative expectations of an economy that has slowed from 3% to 2% growth because of tariff policies will continue to slow and then fall into a recession. For the previous 2 quarters negative earnings estimates have been below actual results. That this quarters earnings will continue to beat estimates is key. For those wanting to risk the biscuit, the best growth stocks to bet on are: MTZ, PRFT, RCII, RH, SKX,…

September Stock and Fund Picks

The new dovish Fed posture requires some adjustment among income funds in my suggested portfolio of monthly paying stocks and funds (the last one is from the August post). REITS and bond funs with longer duration tend to outperform when short rates are lowered. Floating rate funds, on the other hand, have performed worse. Also, MLPs have continued to flounder. Adjust your weighting accordingly. New income funds added to the portfolio are: GBAB (in the build America bonds category), FT…

August Stock and Fund Picks

Week 1 -2 (Aug. 1 - 15): There are changes to my personal portfolio from July. Specifically, I'm dropping EPR and CCMNX and adding PHD and BSL. These changes are now reflected in the updated portfolio. Most stock analysts are weak at Open Economy Macroeconomics and tend to look only at the initial static effect on GDP from increased tariffs on China announced for Sept. 1st. This abstract view underestimates the vastness of the negative macroeconomic consequences of Trump's tariffs.…

July Stock and Fund Picks

Week 1 (July 1 - 5): As opposed to just kicking the can down the road and giving the Chinese spy company Huawei a life-line, the bullish bias in the market has interpreted the trade truce with China as an actual trade deal . As you know, I'm not in favor of doing any business with the Communist Chinese government or it's enterprise front Huawei. The Fed rate cut is still on the table and this feeds into the bullishness…

June 2019 Stock and Fund Picks

Week 1 (June 3 - 7): Tariffs on Mexico that would go in effect on June 12 will be bad for Mexico, US companies staying competitive by operating in Mexico and the stock market, dovish Fed or not. Estimates of the cost of tariffs on consumers is now twice as much as the benefit from the tax cuts. This erodes any net gains from all positive supply-side policies (deregulation and tax cuts) already enacted. Global growth forecasts have decreased substantially…

May Stock and Fund Picks

Week 1 - 2 (May 1 - 10): Trump trade woe's continue. When companies buy high bang-per-buck (Productivity divided by cost) resources in foreign countries like Mexico, such as with our automobile industry, it maximizes output per cost or, equivalently, minimizes cost per unit of output. In other words, our automobile industry becomes more competitive by using Mexico's production resources. China has a communist government and cannot be traded with or used for production because the cost of stealing our…

April Stock and Fund Picks

Week 1  April is starting off well.  Still have doubts about Trump's trade policies, especially towards Mexico.  The China problem centers around forced technology transfer, or simply technology theft by a communist government.  We should never have let any of that happen.  But Mexico is simply a producer with higher bang- per- buck labor resources.  Any resources value per dollar is its productivity or value added divided by its price.  That's the same principle as when we expect consumers to…

March Stock and Fund Picks

Weeks 1 - 2: Looks like things have decided to cool off and things are relatively stable. Trump and the Chinese can still cause a major disruption so be prepared. Since you can't know when things might change and it is political rather than fundamental it is probably best to plan on holding through any disruption. That said, panic selling is always a buying opportunity so I'd have some cash on hand. Stocks to look at for growth are JLL,…

February Stock Picks

Week 1 - 2 (Feb. 1 - 15): More trade uncertainty for March 1st and looming government shutdown #2 are on the horizon. Have been all month so haven't wanted to commit to anything in the stock market. The Chinese will be watching the compromise bill to avert the shutdown so as to guess how soft a deal Trump might accept. For those inclined to be in the market consider ARCH for growth; RC and RIO as dividend growth stocks;…

January 2019 Stock and Fund Picks

Week 1 (Jan 1 - 8): It is hard to read the market. The Fed still wants to pair down its balance sheet by letting its bonds expire or to sell them. By not buying or selling US treasury's it will still cause interest rates to rise. Trump still doesn't understand the more efficient allocation effects of specialization and trade so whatever deals he makes will still make us worse off by decreasing production and increasing prices, inflation, and unemployment.…

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