September 27, 2006: The Federal Reserves discount rate increased from 3.75% to 4.00% with the latest rate hike. The rationale for hiking rates is soaring inflationary expectations driven by a supply-side economic shock. The economic shock is mainly due to gas and oil shortages and tariffs. U.S. and global bond yields are rising. This is… Continue reading September Stock and Fund Picks
August Stock and Fund Picks
August 30, 2026: The probability of a rate hike has increased from about 45% to 65% as of the Fed’s last meeting. Weak jobs numbers and continued declines in labor force participation may yet reduce that probability, however. The bigger issue looming over the market are potential illegal actions by the Trump administration. These actions… Continue reading August Stock and Fund Picks
July Stock and Fund Picks
July 30, 2026: Iran continues to target U.S. assets and allies in the Middle East. Efforts by Trump to negotiate with Iran have been unsuccessful, and the conflict seems likely to persist for the foreseeable future. As a consequence, prices have risen significantly, with an increase of 6.2%, primarily driven by higher oil and gas… Continue reading July Stock and Fund Picks
June Stock and Fund Picks
June 25: Geopolitical risks related to the oil supply shock are beginning to show signs of becoming less bad. In the long run, increased efforts toward pipeline construction among several Middle Eastern countries should reduce future risks associated with the Strait of Hormuz. The Fed appears to have settled into a holding pattern regarding interest… Continue reading June Stock and Fund Picks
May 2026 Stock and Fund Picks
May 24: It seems that economic cross-currents remain and provide no clear answer for the future path of stocks. The May 20, 2026, Fidelity Viewpoints notes the following: Thus, “Energy prices may hold the keys to where the stock market goes next.” A chart illustrating the causes of the oil supply crunch, as presented in… Continue reading May 2026 Stock and Fund Picks
April 2026 Stock and Fund Picks
April 24: The current state of the economy is full of cross-currents and therefore difficult to assess. For example, Fidelity Viewpoints notes that: Higher oil prices have seeped into consumer confidence, according to the latest University of Michigan survey. The April consumer confidence report’s headline index fell to 47.6, an all-time low, which was down… Continue reading April 2026 Stock and Fund Picks
March 2026 Stock and Fund Picks
March 18, 2026: Stronger stagflation winds blow due to increasing supply-side shocks. We now have both the internal policy shock of tariffs (or taxes) plus the external oil supply shock due to the completely unplanned-for Strait of Hormuz problem. Increases in unemployment due to slowing economic growth and inflationary pressures are therefore imminent. A Schwab… Continue reading March 2026 Stock and Fund Picks
February 2026 Stock and Fund Picks
January 20: We continue to be worse off. Data on wages shows a secular decline as indicated in the following table. The wage growth rate is down significantly from its near-term peak more than 3 years ago (although it is still positive), according to the Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker. Since peaking at 6.7% in… Continue reading February 2026 Stock and Fund Picks
January Stock and Fund Picks
State of the Economy: As growth slow and AI continues to grow, the labor market slowly deteriorates as the “Labor Market Trends Index” shows: The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) Declined in December Latest Press Release Updated: Monday, January 12, 2026 The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) declined in December to 104.27, from… Continue reading January Stock and Fund Picks
December Stock and Fund Picks
Another in a long line of Presidential disasters brought on by ignorance and incompetence continues to be a plaque on the markets. Obama, as you might remember, was leading us into a recession during his second term by overregulating everything in sight. I’m sure his intentions were good but he kept increasing costs and slowing… Continue reading December Stock and Fund Picks