January 20: We continue to be worse off. Data on wages shows a secular decline as indicated in the following table. Wage growth is down significantly from its near-term peak more than 3 years ago (although it is still positive), according to the Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker. Since peaking at 6.7% in 2022, it… Continue reading February 2026 Stock and Fund Picks
January Stock and Fund Picks
State of the Economy: As growth slow and AI continues to grow, the labor market slowly deteriorates as the “Labor Market Trends Index” shows: The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) Declined in December Latest Press Release Updated: Monday, January 12, 2026 The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) declined in December to 104.27, from… Continue reading January Stock and Fund Picks
December Stock and Fund Picks
Another in a long line of Presidential disasters brought on by ignorance and incompetence continues to be a plaque on the markets. Obama, as you might remember, was leading us into a recession during his second term by overregulating everything in sight. I’m sure his intentions were good but he kept increasing costs and slowing… Continue reading December Stock and Fund Picks
November Stock and Fund Picks
November 20, 2025: We’ve completed our move to another state and I should be back to updating this blog more regularly as a consequence. As we slowly slide into a more distinctive stagflationary scenario resulting from an internal supply-side shock caused by increased tariffs, the Fed is increasingly uncertain as to whether it should focus… Continue reading November Stock and Fund Picks
September Update
September 24, 2025: We just moved from one state to another and I have been unable to keep up the blog until now. Because I have a Ph.D. in economics and a much vaster knowledge base in the areas of this subject, I can make predictions that will happen in the future with a high… Continue reading September Update
July 2025 Stock and Fund Picks
July 24: Election cycle theory suggests that the negative effects of Trump’s tariff policy will not fully set in until the beginning of next year. Thus, we can expect that the stock market will remain on relatively steady footing until then. On the other hand, Trump’s fight with Fed chair Powell has some very negative… Continue reading July 2025 Stock and Fund Picks
June Stock and Fund Picks
June 7: There are currently three areas of relative value for investing. Only two of them are relatively safe from tariff risks. These two are municipal bonds and gold. Municipal bonds have been sold off sufficiently that many CEFs sell at discounted values and provide fairly high interest rates. The after tax equivalent yield is… Continue reading June Stock and Fund Picks
May Stock and Fund Picks
May 30, 2025: Trump only offers bad things for our economy. Everyone knows, since the last half of Trump’s first administration, that tariffs are his only policy. Moreover, tariffs only do harm. Thus, the more recent announcements of new tariffs have caused the stock market to plunge. Trump then chickens out and announces the tariffs… Continue reading May Stock and Fund Picks
April 2025 Stock and Fund Picks
April 3, 2025: The “effect [of reciprocal tariffs] will be lower economic growth, higher inflation, higher unemployment, the destruction of wealth and a tax increase on American families,” economist Jason Furman, a former chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, recently explained. “It will deal a blow to the rules underlying the global trading… Continue reading April 2025 Stock and Fund Picks
March 2025 Stock and Fund Picks
March 10: We are very definitely headed into a tariff induced recession characterized by stagflation. Taxes (what tariffs are) cannot result in prosperity. Instead, they will cause reduced economic activity in all trade related industries. Moreover, retaliatory tariffs will reduce our exports and increase unemployment in our more efficient exporting industries. The higher tariffs on… Continue reading March 2025 Stock and Fund Picks