June 25: Geopolitical risks related to the oil supply shock are beginning to show signs of becoming less bad. In the long run, increased efforts toward pipeline construction among several Middle Eastern countries should reduce future risks associated with the Strait of Hormuz. The Fed appears to have settled into a holding pattern regarding interest… Continue reading June Stock and Fund Picks
May 2026 Stock and Fund Picks
May 24: It seems that economic cross-currents remain and provide no clear answer for the future path of stocks. The May 20, 2026, Fidelity Viewpoints notes the following: Thus, “Energy prices may hold the keys to where the stock market goes next.” A chart illustrating the causes of the oil supply crunch, as presented in… Continue reading May 2026 Stock and Fund Picks
April 2026 Stock and Fund Picks
April 24: The current state of the economy is full of cross-currents and therefore difficult to assess. For example, Fidelity Viewpoints notes that: Higher oil prices have seeped into consumer confidence, according to the latest University of Michigan survey. The April consumer confidence report’s headline index fell to 47.6, an all-time low, which was down… Continue reading April 2026 Stock and Fund Picks
March 2026 Stock and Fund Picks
March 18, 2026: Stronger stagflation winds blow due to increasing supply-side shocks. We now have both the internal policy shock of tariffs (or taxes) plus the external oil supply shock due to the completely unplanned-for Strait of Hormuz problem. Increases in unemployment due to slowing economic growth and inflationary pressures are therefore imminent. A Schwab… Continue reading March 2026 Stock and Fund Picks
February 2026 Stock and Fund Picks
January 20: We continue to be worse off. Data on wages shows a secular decline as indicated in the following table. The wage growth rate is down significantly from its near-term peak more than 3 years ago (although it is still positive), according to the Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker. Since peaking at 6.7% in… Continue reading February 2026 Stock and Fund Picks
January Stock and Fund Picks
State of the Economy: As growth slow and AI continues to grow, the labor market slowly deteriorates as the “Labor Market Trends Index” shows: The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) Declined in December Latest Press Release Updated: Monday, January 12, 2026 The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) declined in December to 104.27, from… Continue reading January Stock and Fund Picks
December Stock and Fund Picks
Another in a long line of Presidential disasters brought on by ignorance and incompetence continues to be a plaque on the markets. Obama, as you might remember, was leading us into a recession during his second term by overregulating everything in sight. I’m sure his intentions were good but he kept increasing costs and slowing… Continue reading December Stock and Fund Picks
November Stock and Fund Picks
November 20, 2025: We’ve completed our move to another state and I should be back to updating this blog more regularly as a consequence. As we slowly slide into a more distinctive stagflationary scenario resulting from an internal supply-side shock caused by increased tariffs, the Fed is increasingly uncertain as to whether it should focus… Continue reading November Stock and Fund Picks
September Update
September 24, 2025: We just moved from one state to another and I have been unable to keep up the blog until now. Because I have a Ph.D. in economics and a much vaster knowledge base in the areas of this subject, I can make predictions that will happen in the future with a high… Continue reading September Update
July 2025 Stock and Fund Picks
July 24: Election cycle theory suggests that the negative effects of Trump’s tariff policy will not fully set in until the beginning of next year. Thus, we can expect that the stock market will remain on relatively steady footing until then. On the other hand, Trump’s fight with Fed chair Powell has some very negative… Continue reading July 2025 Stock and Fund Picks