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November 2017 Stock State

November 15 update: We keep doing what works until it doesn't.  Be careful about buying on small dips while assuming that tomorrow the market will upon on the upside.  This may quit working with tomorrow becoming another down day.  This is characteristic of a stock market that rolls-over into a larger correction . . . which we badly need.  Given a larger correction of say 3 - 5% a global bottom, as opposed to the daily local minimums, you may…

Weekly Stock Picks for November 2017

Week 1 (Nov. 1 - 10): Goldilocks global economy and the three bears are no where in site.  Consider SQ, INTC, MMM, GRUB, MB, SAFM, ASIX, LAZ, and CRL for growth.  Some of these like MMM, and LAZ also pay dividends that offer more growth.  Keep cash on hand for any corrections, or for buying TVIX at the start of a correction to acquire even more cash.  Rising interest rates may steal some allure from high yielding ETFs and CEFs…

Some Thoughts on Modern Day Democracy

I'll start with the premise that most people, including those with resources in the markets, do not want or need overregulation. Social progressivity is therefore are desirable agenda. So too is classical liberalism in which there are free markets and limited government. With regard to economics, the limited government only addresses resource misallocation caused by market processes (i.e., under production of public goods, the existence of market externalities, decisions based on asymmetrical information, and excessive market concentration among unions and…

October 2017 Stock State

September 6 update: Investors can probably ignore this. Trades pay attention. High rates of growth, the higher the worse, combined with complacent or Pollyanna investors along with stock analysts that give in to assuming an unrelenting upward trending stocks is a circumstance that inevitably leads to a correction. Listen to Cramer (Mad Money). He has experience beyond what most of us have. Hold more cash, be ready to hedge (buy TZA or TVIX), and don't panic sell. Given the solid…

October 2017 Stocks of the Week

Warren Buffet thinks that the low-interest environment creates a situation in which stocks are NOT overvalued and that there are good buying opportunities out there. Also, the general consensus is that there are more positives than negatives that might affect the stock market in the near term. That said, some analysts continue to stress the likelihood of a significant short-run correction and that holding cash is the best hedge. Stocks for Week 1: For growth consider TRLFF, EDIT, CERN, IMED…

September 2017 Stock State

September 8 update: Earnings are strong as are profits and the underlying economy. Yet there are potential problems with which we must consider. First, it is September. Typically, stocks do well up to about the middle of September and then tend to sell off such that the month ends in the red. Some technical analysts suggest that Monday the 18th could be the day selling begins in earnest. Look out below . . . and then buy because October -…

August 2017 Stock Pick Performance

The base stock portfolio and the weekly stock picks for August 2017 managed to beat all the major stock indexes (S & P 500, NASDAQ, Dow). That said, it was a difficult month for stock picks. The base portfolio had one change in that USCR took the place of ALK. The following link has the table for the base stock portfolio. August 2017 Stock Performance Overall, the weekly stock picks fared about twice as well as the index beating base…

September 2017 Weekly Stock Picks

Week 1 (9/5 - 9/8): September is generally a worse month for stocks than August, which wasn't very good. Still, stock indexes finished August at nearly their break-even points. Adjust your expectations for September to include a greater risk for profit taking and a market correction, and for stocks to finish the month lower. This scenario also represents a buying opportunity. For growth, take a look at CTLT, CG, ADSK, SCZ, and LILAK. SCZ and LILAK are funds investing in…

July 2017 Stock Pick Performance

July 2017 Base Stock Performance July 2017 Weekly Stock Performance Once again, all stock pick categories -- Base Stocks and Weekly Stock Picks -- beat all three stock indexes during the month of July, 2017. The only major negatives in Base Stocks were regional banks (KRE) and the one airline stock (ALK). Weekly stock picks had an even stronger month with most of the negative capital losses among the high yield dividend stocks (DIV HY). Moreover, these losses were slight…

August Stock State: Market Outlook and Strategy

August 9, 2017 update: Two things that matter: 1) August is typically a negative month for stocks. 2) Geopolitical risk related to N. Korea causes investors to take money out of the market. You can choose to ride out August if you believe, like I do, that the last quarter will reverse course and be strongly favorable. You can hold more cash and buy gold and silver as well. I'd also hedge my bets and buy a 3x leverage inverse…