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March 2018 Stock State

March 1st Update: Headwinds from trade wars are on the way.  This, as indicated in the February Stock State, is our biggest stock market worry. Why are tariffs on steal and aluminum such a problem?  Trade theory, not stock market talking heads, is the answer.  Tariffs on specific commodities imposed by a large nation such as the US will effect the global price by reducing demand from a large (the US) importer.  This hurts all steal and aluminum manufacturers in…

February 2018 Stock State

February 12 update: The correction or pull-back of about 10% is running its course.  Much of the attention focused on headwinds created by higher interest rates (as the 10 year government bond heads for 2.9% is an overstated concern.  Imagine you are flying a small airplane into a headwind.  The FED has helped you (the stock market) fly faster by buying government bonds (and other dept) to keep interest rates lower.  This builds up the FEDs balance sheet.  Unwinding the…

February Stock and Fund Picks

Week 1 (Feb. 1 - 9): I am always amused when I hear a stock described as "poised for explosive growth."  It's a catchy line but the same holds for any stock in the market.  Odds are, you will be right some of the time.  The only thing I will say about my stock picks is that they are subject to rigorous research and systematic screening and that some of them, even in the short-run of only a month, will…

Activist Monetary Policy Conundrum

Recently, many economic and FED commentators point out that if we have a recession we will need a tighter FED balance sheet and higher interest rates in order to fight the recession using stimulative monetary policy.  At the same time, others have pointed out that if interest rates get to high it will cause a recession.  This leaves us with a logical conflict.  If the FED actively manages the economy to have higher short-term interest rates and thereby be in…

January 2018 Stock State

The economy continues to do well, but not too well.  That is, it is chugging along rather steadily but not so fast as to suggest closing in on the next recession any time soon.  The stock market is not always in lock step with the economy because it rests on not only fundamentals, but such things as investor expectations and sentiment as well.  The recent supply side tax cut that reduced corporates rates appears to underly market exuberance.  If exuberance…

January 2018 Weekly Stock Picks

Week 1 (Jan 2 - 5): The conservative strategy is to not chase stocks when they are up, but buy on the dips instead.  Maybe wait for a 1% - 2% pull back in the market or a given stock or fund.  For growth, take a look at OLLI, MULE, EDIT, GBT, HUN, AME, NUAN, PTI, HMLSF (Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences Index ETG), TPL, NUAN, AMG, MAS, and IBKR.  For dividends consider GSBD and BREUF.  Pull backs require you keeep…

December 2017 Stock State

December 1, 2017 update: Do not follow the herd, especially if it appears panicky.  You'll just run off the cliff with everybody else.  If spent all your cash because you thought this correction would be like previous ones that were short in duration, just act like Warren Buffett and be patient.  All good things come to those who wait.  Amazon and Facebook both sold off earlier this year.  Jumping out of them when they did just cost you money.  They…

November 2017 Stock State

November 15 update: We keep doing what works until it doesn't.  Be careful about buying on small dips while assuming that tomorrow the market will upon on the upside.  This may quit working with tomorrow becoming another down day.  This is characteristic of a stock market that rolls-over into a larger correction . . . which we badly need.  Given a larger correction of say 3 - 5% a global bottom, as opposed to the daily local minimums, you may…

Weekly Stock Picks for November 2017

Week 1 (Nov. 1 - 10): Goldilocks global economy and the three bears are no where in site.  Consider SQ, INTC, MMM, GRUB, MB, SAFM, ASIX, LAZ, and CRL for growth.  Some of these like MMM, and LAZ also pay dividends that offer more growth.  Keep cash on hand for any corrections, or for buying TVIX at the start of a correction to acquire even more cash.  Rising interest rates may steal some allure from high yielding ETFs and CEFs…

Some Thoughts on Modern Day Democracy

I'll start with the premise that most people, including those with resources in the markets, do not want or need overregulation. Social progressivity is therefore are desirable agenda. So too is classical liberalism in which there are free markets and limited government. With regard to economics, the limited government only addresses resource misallocation caused by market processes (i.e., under production of public goods, the existence of market externalities, decisions based on asymmetrical information, and excessive market concentration among unions and…