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February 2018 Stock State

February 12 update: The correction or pull-back of about 10% is running its course.  Much of the attention focused on headwinds created by higher interest rates (as the 10 year government bond heads for 2.9% is an overstated concern.  Imagine you are flying a small airplane into a headwind.  The FED has helped you (the stock market) fly faster by buying government bonds (and other dept) to keep interest rates lower.  This builds up the FEDs balance sheet.  Unwinding the…

February Stock and Fund Picks

Week 1 (Feb. 1 - 9): I am always amused when I hear a stock described as "poised for explosive growth."  It's a catchy line but the same holds for any stock in the market.  Odds are, you will be right some of the time.  The only thing I will say about my stock picks is that they are subject to rigorous research and systematic screening and that some of them, even in the short-run of only a month, will…

Activist Monetary Policy Conundrum

Recently, many economic and FED commentators point out that if we have a recession we will need a tighter FED balance sheet and higher interest rates in order to fight the recession using stimulative monetary policy.  At the same time, others have pointed out that if interest rates get to high it will cause a recession.  This leaves us with a logical conflict.  If the FED actively manages the economy to have higher short-term interest rates and thereby be in…

January 2018 Stock State

The economy continues to do well, but not too well.  That is, it is chugging along rather steadily but not so fast as to suggest closing in on the next recession any time soon.  The stock market is not always in lock step with the economy because it rests on not only fundamentals, but such things as investor expectations and sentiment as well.  The recent supply side tax cut that reduced corporates rates appears to underly market exuberance.  If exuberance…

January 2018 Weekly Stock Picks

Week 1 (Jan 2 - 5): The conservative strategy is to not chase stocks when they are up, but buy on the dips instead.  Maybe wait for a 1% - 2% pull back in the market or a given stock or fund.  For growth, take a look at OLLI, MULE, EDIT, GBT, HUN, AME, NUAN, PTI, HMLSF (Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences Index ETG), TPL, NUAN, AMG, MAS, and IBKR.  For dividends consider GSBD and BREUF.  Pull backs require you keeep…

December 2017 Stocks of the Week

Week 1 (December 4 - 8): A very necessary Tech correction (i.e., the elevator down) is underway.  This will allow for the next leg up among high-flying, high-earning tech stocks (i.e., the slower "back up the stairs")among their respective market valuations).  Once the correction bottoms, buying will again dominate so look for entry points such as the MACD (a chart indicator) crossing upwards and into the buying zone. Growth stocks strongly recommended by analysts include BIDU, KLIC, DQ, PAYC, DXC,…

December 2017 Stock State

December 1, 2017 update: Do not follow the herd, especially if it appears panicky.  You'll just run off the cliff with everybody else.  If spent all your cash because you thought this correction would be like previous ones that were short in duration, just act like Warren Buffett and be patient.  All good things come to those who wait.  Amazon and Facebook both sold off earlier this year.  Jumping out of them when they did just cost you money.  They…

October 2017 Stock Pick Performance

October was an overall bad month for stocks and stock picking.  While the Base Stock picks outperformed all thee stock indexes (S & P 500, DOW, NASDAQ), the weekly stock picks did not. Even though the base stock picks outperformed, I am selling USCR and adding FTEC to the base stock portfolio.  Access the October Base Stock portfolio performance through the following link. October 2017 Base Stock Performance Access the weekly stock picks through the following link. October 2017 Weekly…

November 2017 Stock State

November 15 update: We keep doing what works until it doesn't.  Be careful about buying on small dips while assuming that tomorrow the market will upon on the upside.  This may quit working with tomorrow becoming another down day.  This is characteristic of a stock market that rolls-over into a larger correction . . . which we badly need.  Given a larger correction of say 3 - 5% a global bottom, as opposed to the daily local minimums, you may…

September 2017 Stock State

September 8 update: Earnings are strong as are profits and the underlying economy. Yet there are potential problems with which we must consider. First, it is September. Typically, stocks do well up to about the middle of September and then tend to sell off such that the month ends in the red. Some technical analysts suggest that Monday the 18th could be the day selling begins in earnest. Look out below . . . and then buy because October -…