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November 2017 Stock State

November 15 update: We keep doing what works until it doesn't.  Be careful about buying on small dips while assuming that tomorrow the market will upon on the upside.  This may quit working with tomorrow becoming another down day.  This is characteristic of a stock market that rolls-over into a larger correction . . . which we badly need.  Given a larger correction of say 3 - 5% a global bottom, as opposed to the daily local minimums, you may…

October 2017 Stock State

September 6 update: Investors can probably ignore this. Trades pay attention. High rates of growth, the higher the worse, combined with complacent or Pollyanna investors along with stock analysts that give in to assuming an unrelenting upward trending stocks is a circumstance that inevitably leads to a correction. Listen to Cramer (Mad Money). He has experience beyond what most of us have. Hold more cash, be ready to hedge (buy TZA or TVIX), and don't panic sell. Given the solid…

October 2017 Stocks of the Week

Warren Buffet thinks that the low-interest environment creates a situation in which stocks are NOT overvalued and that there are good buying opportunities out there. Also, the general consensus is that there are more positives than negatives that might affect the stock market in the near term. That said, some analysts continue to stress the likelihood of a significant short-run correction and that holding cash is the best hedge. Stocks for Week 1: For growth consider TRLFF, EDIT, CERN, IMED…

September 2017 Stock State

September 8 update: Earnings are strong as are profits and the underlying economy. Yet there are potential problems with which we must consider. First, it is September. Typically, stocks do well up to about the middle of September and then tend to sell off such that the month ends in the red. Some technical analysts suggest that Monday the 18th could be the day selling begins in earnest. Look out below . . . and then buy because October -…

August Stock State: Market Outlook and Strategy

August 9, 2017 update: Two things that matter: 1) August is typically a negative month for stocks. 2) Geopolitical risk related to N. Korea causes investors to take money out of the market. You can choose to ride out August if you believe, like I do, that the last quarter will reverse course and be strongly favorable. You can hold more cash and buy gold and silver as well. I'd also hedge my bets and buy a 3x leverage inverse…

July Stock State: Outlook and Market Strategy

Outlook and Strategy for June 7, 2017. Sell-offs or market adjustment in high-flying tech and semiconductors is noticable. Stocks such as ATVI, EA, ADBE, RHT, ADSR, MU, PYPL, NVDA, LRCX, and AVGO have had the fastest run-up and are at the greatest risk for a sell-off or correction. Howver, the bigger name FAAMG stocks that include Google, FB, Netfix, and Amazon have led the sell-off. Questions to ask are 1) are these stocks over valued, 2) what are the implications…

June 2017 Stock Pick Performance

It was a month where "less bad" was the winner. On the other hand, some picks occurred with the expectation buying on a pull-back and thus those with the greatest percentage loss represent the greatest profit opportunities. For base stocks, the only index that was worse was the NASDAQ. Base stocks lost to the S & P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial average. Base stock performance is reflected in the following table. Note that when data collection occurred on…

June Stock State: Market Strategy and Outlook

June 2, 2017 update: Markets are gaining momentum. As of this Thursday and Friday, a risk-on appetite from strong labor market data and positive expectations among businesses and consumers led to put more money into smaller, riskier growth stocks. This is a good sign. Moreover, it reinforces the prospects for a continuation of the current bull-market in stocks. Except for the stock market, the economy has been on a recessionary trend the last 8 years. It is the improvement in…

The Stock State: Market Outlook and Strategy

After a strong run-up from the November election and through February, the market was up on a "Trump Bump." Personally, I thought the "Trump Bump" was more of a celebration over the discontinuance of anti-market policies put in place by an Obama administration that never understood how a market economy works. Hilary Clinton would have continued those same misguided policies for the same reasons. That Clinton lost and the anti-market policies ended was reason enough for the stock market run-up.…

April 2017 Stock Picks and Market Strategy

Trading range, consolidation, pull-back to 200 day support line are all possibilities to look forward to in the near term. The market tends toward risk-on with good news about fundamentals such as the ADP hiring report this Wednesday. By contrast, political uncertainty "noise" has a strong, or even stronger, negative effect pushing investors into the risk-off mode very quickly. Strategy: Buy on any strong or significant dips. The long-run upward trend continues to dominate. Thus, you can ride out any…