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August Stock and Fund Picks

Week 1 -2 (Aug. 1 - 15): There are changes to my personal portfolio from July. Specifically, I'm dropping EPR and CCMNX and adding PHD and BSL. These changes are now reflected in the updated portfolio. Most stock analysts are weak at Open Economy Macroeconomics and tend to look only at the initial static effect on GDP from increased tariffs on China announced for Sept. 1st. This abstract view underestimates the vastness of the negative macroeconomic consequences of Trump's tariffs.…

Flow Theory of the Stock Market

Flow theory is about the flow of money into and out of stocks, economic sectors, and the overall stock market. I am going to focus on the overall stock market. Flows into and out of the stock market occur for different reasons in the longer-run period (greater than 1 or 2 years) versus the shorter-run period (less than 1 or 2 years). In the long-run money flows depend on: 1. Demographic trends 2. Long-run economic growth. 3. International portfolio capital…