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August Stock and Fund Picks

Week 1 -2 (Aug. 1 - 15): There are changes to my personal portfolio from July. Specifically, I'm dropping EPR and CCMNX and adding PHD and BSL. These changes are now reflected in the updated portfolio. Most stock analysts are weak at Open Economy Macroeconomics and tend to look only at the initial static effect on GDP from increased tariffs on China announced for Sept. 1st. This abstract view underestimates the vastness of the negative macroeconomic consequences of Trump's tariffs.…

July Stock and Fund Picks

Week 1 (July 1 - 5): As opposed to just kicking the can down the road and giving the Chinese spy company Huawei a life-line, the bullish bias in the market has interpreted the trade truce with China as an actual trade deal . As you know, I'm not in favor of doing any business with the Communist Chinese government or it's enterprise front Huawei. The Fed rate cut is still on the table and this feeds into the bullishness…

March 2018 Stock State

March 1st Update: Headwinds from trade wars are on the way.  This, as indicated in the February Stock State, is our biggest stock market worry. Why are tariffs on steal and aluminum such a problem?  Trade theory, not stock market talking heads, is the answer.  Tariffs on specific commodities imposed by a large nation such as the US will effect the global price by reducing demand from a large (the US) importer.  This hurts all steal and aluminum manufacturers in…

February 2018 Stock State

February 12 update: The correction or pull-back of about 10% is running its course.  Much of the attention focused on headwinds created by higher interest rates (as the 10 year government bond heads for 2.9% is an overstated concern.  Imagine you are flying a small airplane into a headwind.  The FED has helped you (the stock market) fly faster by buying government bonds (and other dept) to keep interest rates lower.  This builds up the FEDs balance sheet.  Unwinding the…

February Stock and Fund Picks

Week 1 (Feb. 1 - 9): I am always amused when I hear a stock described as "poised for explosive growth."  It's a catchy line but the same holds for any stock in the market.  Odds are, you will be right some of the time.  The only thing I will say about my stock picks is that they are subject to rigorous research and systematic screening and that some of them, even in the short-run of only a month, will…

Activist Monetary Policy Conundrum

Recently, many economic and FED commentators point out that if we have a recession we will need a tighter FED balance sheet and higher interest rates in order to fight the recession using stimulative monetary policy.  At the same time, others have pointed out that if interest rates get to high it will cause a recession.  This leaves us with a logical conflict.  If the FED actively manages the economy to have higher short-term interest rates and thereby be in…

January 2018 Stock State

The economy continues to do well, but not too well.  That is, it is chugging along rather steadily but not so fast as to suggest closing in on the next recession any time soon.  The stock market is not always in lock step with the economy because it rests on not only fundamentals, but such things as investor expectations and sentiment as well.  The recent supply side tax cut that reduced corporates rates appears to underly market exuberance.  If exuberance…

December 2017 Stock State

December 1, 2017 update: Do not follow the herd, especially if it appears panicky.  You'll just run off the cliff with everybody else.  If spent all your cash because you thought this correction would be like previous ones that were short in duration, just act like Warren Buffett and be patient.  All good things come to those who wait.  Amazon and Facebook both sold off earlier this year.  Jumping out of them when they did just cost you money.  They…

July Stock State: Outlook and Market Strategy

Outlook and Strategy for June 7, 2017. Sell-offs or market adjustment in high-flying tech and semiconductors is noticable. Stocks such as ATVI, EA, ADBE, RHT, ADSR, MU, PYPL, NVDA, LRCX, and AVGO have had the fastest run-up and are at the greatest risk for a sell-off or correction. Howver, the bigger name FAAMG stocks that include Google, FB, Netfix, and Amazon have led the sell-off. Questions to ask are 1) are these stocks over valued, 2) what are the implications…

July 2017 Weekly Stock Recommendations

Stock picks for the 1st week of July, 2017 (July 3 - 7), with markets closed July 4, 2017. The tech sell-off created buying opportunities. July, week 1 stock recommendations must include AAPL. I'd also consider TREE, TCMD, NTES, ANET, JD, JPM, CRIUF, and ARCC. ARCC is a large, solid business development company that pays about 9.3% and has also pulled back recently, making it a good buy. CRIUF is a Canadian utilities company that pays about 8% and offers…