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February 2018 Stock State

February 12 update: The correction or pull-back of about 10% is running its course.  Much of the attention focused on headwinds created by higher interest rates (as the 10 year government bond heads for 2.9% is an overstated concern.  Imagine you are flying a small airplane into a headwind.  The FED has helped you (the stock market) fly faster by buying government bonds (and other dept) to keep interest rates lower.  This builds up the FEDs balance sheet.  Unwinding the…

February Stock and Fund Picks

Week 1 (Feb. 1 - 9): I am always amused when I hear a stock described as "poised for explosive growth."  It's a catchy line but the same holds for any stock in the market.  Odds are, you will be right some of the time.  The only thing I will say about my stock picks is that they are subject to rigorous research and systematic screening and that some of them, even in the short-run of only a month, will…

Activist Monetary Policy Conundrum

Recently, many economic and FED commentators point out that if we have a recession we will need a tighter FED balance sheet and higher interest rates in order to fight the recession using stimulative monetary policy.  At the same time, others have pointed out that if interest rates get to high it will cause a recession.  This leaves us with a logical conflict.  If the FED actively manages the economy to have higher short-term interest rates and thereby be in…

January 2018 Stock State

The economy continues to do well, but not too well.  That is, it is chugging along rather steadily but not so fast as to suggest closing in on the next recession any time soon.  The stock market is not always in lock step with the economy because it rests on not only fundamentals, but such things as investor expectations and sentiment as well.  The recent supply side tax cut that reduced corporates rates appears to underly market exuberance.  If exuberance…

January 2018 Weekly Stock Picks

Week 1 (Jan 2 - 5): The conservative strategy is to not chase stocks when they are up, but buy on the dips instead.  Maybe wait for a 1% - 2% pull back in the market or a given stock or fund.  For growth, take a look at OLLI, MULE, EDIT, GBT, HUN, AME, NUAN, PTI, HMLSF (Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences Index ETG), TPL, NUAN, AMG, MAS, and IBKR.  For dividends consider GSBD and BREUF.  Pull backs require you keeep…

December 2017 Stocks of the Week

Week 1 (December 4 - 8): A very necessary Tech correction (i.e., the elevator down) is underway.  This will allow for the next leg up among high-flying, high-earning tech stocks (i.e., the slower "back up the stairs")among their respective market valuations).  Once the correction bottoms, buying will again dominate so look for entry points such as the MACD (a chart indicator) crossing upwards and into the buying zone. Growth stocks strongly recommended by analysts include BIDU, KLIC, DQ, PAYC, DXC,…

December 2017 Stock State

December 1, 2017 update: Do not follow the herd, especially if it appears panicky.  You'll just run off the cliff with everybody else.  If spent all your cash because you thought this correction would be like previous ones that were short in duration, just act like Warren Buffett and be patient.  All good things come to those who wait.  Amazon and Facebook both sold off earlier this year.  Jumping out of them when they did just cost you money.  They…

Weekly Stock Picks for November 2017

Week 1 (Nov. 1 - 10): Goldilocks global economy and the three bears are no where in site.  Consider SQ, INTC, MMM, GRUB, MB, SAFM, ASIX, LAZ, and CRL for growth.  Some of these like MMM, and LAZ also pay dividends that offer more growth.  Keep cash on hand for any corrections, or for buying TVIX at the start of a correction to acquire even more cash.  Rising interest rates may steal some allure from high yielding ETFs and CEFs…

September 2017 Stock Pick Performance

September was another challenging month. So many fear October that sellers tend to dominate the month and finding stocks that might make gains is more challenging. The Base stock portfolio beat the NASDAQ and performed nearly as well as the DOW and S & P 500. The best performer was the regional banks (KRE). Shopify (SHOP) was second best, but has since been "short bombed" by a Citron analyst and will need to find a new bottom, probably somewhere below…

October 2017 Stocks of the Week

Warren Buffet thinks that the low-interest environment creates a situation in which stocks are NOT overvalued and that there are good buying opportunities out there. Also, the general consensus is that there are more positives than negatives that might affect the stock market in the near term. That said, some analysts continue to stress the likelihood of a significant short-run correction and that holding cash is the best hedge. Stocks for Week 1: For growth consider TRLFF, EDIT, CERN, IMED…