State of the Economy: As growth slow and AI continues to grow, the labor market slowly deteriorates as the “Labor Market Trends Index” shows:
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) Declined in December
Latest Press Release
Updated: Monday, January 12, 2026
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) declined in December to 104.27, from a downwardly revised 104.64 in November. The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for payroll employment. When the Index increases, employment is likely to grow as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the Index indicate that a change in the trend of job gains or losses is about to occur in the coming months.
“The ETI slid further in December, reflecting low labor market confidence in the outlooks for hiring and job-finding,” said Mitchell Barnes, Economist at The Conference Board.
On top of this, Trump added tariffs to pressure some European countries over Greenland. This is like shooting US growth in the foot because it will only add to the headwinds slowing economic growth and labor market hiring. To be clear, we are not yet in a stagflationary recession but in more of an economic slowdown or “mild stagnation.” Inflation may get help from productivity increases in AI and stable oil prices, but this effect will be offset by supply disruptions and cost increases for consumers and producers that result from more tariffs. Also, health care costs are on the increase and will show up in inflation indexes as well. Thus, the stagflation monster is thinking about huffing and puffing at the door while Trump’s better jobs and higher wages have long disappeared from reality.
Within this context I have a few decent stocks and funds to recommend, while at the same time recommending caution and the accumulation of savings to be used during a possible market sell-off. For growth consider: F, PROP, SWKS, AAUC, HTH, ARMN, ADEI, EVER, NXGPY, ANGO, BDTX, TKAMY, FIVN, SKWD, DG, ARRY, TX, AUGO, ARTC, CGAU, KGC, REVG, ILPT, GM and TRUP. For dividends and growth: BNPQY, CRRFY, SUN, F, PAA, TIMB, CTO, MBGYY and SWKS. During the previous three months the ETFs with the highest growth rates were: PSI, SOXX, SOXQ, SMH and KBE.
For those interested in CEFs for income and portfolio growth there are two main categories. For taxable investment portfolios consider: ETB, ETV, ETW, EVT, BXMY, DIAX, QQQX, HTD, PDT, PML and FLC. For tax sheltered portfolios such as 401Ks that are subject to RMDs consider: BTX, BST, BSTZ, NBXG, RLTY, JRS, PGZ, DFG, ZTR, MEGI, HQH, HQL, BME, BMEZ, ECF, BCV, NCV and NCZ. Keep in mind that CEFs tend to preserve there NAVs and will lower their dividends during a recession in order to do so. Also, the market price of a fund can differ from its NAV. All funds suggested are priced at a discount to their NAVs and may tend to increase in value as a result. As always, good investing!
