October 20: The status quo seems like endless doom and gloom. Yet, we know with certainty that bear markets always end. Moreover, it’s end will come as a surprise to most. One possible scenario is that inflation continues to abate and the Fed pivots and announces an end to large rate hikes. Suddenly, earnings growth… Continue reading October Stock and Fund Picks
August Stock and Fund Picks
August 30: It appears we bottomed in June. After which July was characterized by a stronger than usual bear market rally. At this point we are back in the FED’s grip of higher interest rate expectations and with no growth or value catalysts in sight that could shift us into another Bull market. Consequently, it… Continue reading August Stock and Fund Picks
July Stock and Fund Picks
July 27: The state of the economy is that it appears that only the end of inflation, Fed tightening, or the war in Ukraine will kick things into a positive direction. As it is, the leading economic indicators (LEI) have fallen for four months in a row while the coincident and lagging indicators still remain… Continue reading July Stock and Fund Picks
June Stock and Fund Picks
June 29: Not much has changed during the month. Expect uncertainty and pessimism regarding Fed tightening and the likely outcome along with geopolitical fatigue to continue dominating the markets. Markets have been down hard during 17 weeks this year and moderately positive in only 8 weeks. Like all trends, it will run out eventually. In… Continue reading June Stock and Fund Picks
May Stock and Fund Picks
May 26, 2022: This week appears to be one of an expected series of short-run rallies within a longer-run downtrend of negative market sentiment. Negative sentiment caused by Fed tightening and liquidity drain, inflation, and the war in Ukraine appear likely to remain for a while. That said, short-run rallies often suggest an approaching bottom.… Continue reading May Stock and Fund Picks
April Stock and Fund Picks
April 14: Let’s hope inflation is nearing its zenith and will return to earth in the near future. The “Poo-tin” appears to be attempting a regroup and retry with a smaller objective in mind. Let’s hope that fails too. British intelligence seems to imply only a 50-50 chance against the more motivated but outnumbered Ukrainians.… Continue reading April Stock and Fund Picks
March Stock and Fund Picks
March 29: Looks like Joe Biden intends for V. Putin to stay in power indefinitely. This will help drag out the Ukrainian war disaster. Of course, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy still needs to acquire more leverage (i.e., more Russian body bags) for effective negotiations with Putin. All this will take time. For the time being, the… Continue reading March Stock and Fund Picks
Stocks/Funds and State of the Economy
February 16: State of the Economy Two things drive long-run interest rates: Inflation and economic growth. Some inflation is on the supply-side and those bottle-necks should continue to abate. Inflation due to too much consumer demand can be effected by the Fed through monetary tightening and raising short-term interest rates (the discount rate). But, by… Continue reading Stocks/Funds and State of the Economy
January Stock and Fund Picks
January 20: Sooner or later all good things, even overdue pull backs and corrections, must come to an end. By now those trading on the emotion of “fear” about alleged interest rate increases will have capitulated and sold near the bottom. Naturally, they will buy back in near a top. Then they will vote for… Continue reading January Stock and Fund Picks
December Stock and Fund Picks
December 21: Winter is now here. More importantly, it appears more and more like an inflection point in the stock markets. The underlying economy is strong and the housing market is even better. Above trend growth is projected into next year and even with the end of the Fed taper and raising short-term rates 3… Continue reading December Stock and Fund Picks