March 12: In the 1930s bank runs occurred because a bank only had to keep a fraction of its total checking account deposits on hand for cash withdrawals and because bank deposits were not insured by the FDIC. Consequently, depositors could panic and try, in mass, to withdraw their funds up to the point the… Continue reading March 2023 Stock and Fund Picks
February Stock and Fund Picks
February 1, 2023: January was great, but . . . “Typically, as January goes so does the year.” Such is the rule of thumb and common belief. Stock prices went up while earnings and earnings expectations are going in the opposite direction. P/E ratios are going up as a consequence. So for how long can… Continue reading February Stock and Fund Picks
December 2022 Stock and Fund Picks
December 28: The best guess as to how far along the Fed is toward raising the Federal Funds Rate is that it is about 70% complete. The most vulnerable area is equities and associated company earnings, all of which appear to have an average of about 10-20 percent more to fall. If you are throwing… Continue reading December 2022 Stock and Fund Picks
November 2022 Stock and Fund Picks
State of the Economy: Best not to overpredict. Unexpected events can never be predicted and they are what cause markets to move the most in the short-run. We know that leading economic indicators are in recession territory but other factors such as labor market growth and earnings are merely slowing. Contradictory data tells us nothing… Continue reading November 2022 Stock and Fund Picks
October Stock and Fund Picks
October 20: The status quo seems like endless doom and gloom. Yet, we know with certainty that bear markets always end. Moreover, it’s end will come as a surprise to most. One possible scenario is that inflation continues to abate and the Fed pivots and announces an end to large rate hikes. Suddenly, earnings growth… Continue reading October Stock and Fund Picks
August Stock and Fund Picks
August 30: It appears we bottomed in June. After which July was characterized by a stronger than usual bear market rally. At this point we are back in the FED’s grip of higher interest rate expectations and with no growth or value catalysts in sight that could shift us into another Bull market. Consequently, it… Continue reading August Stock and Fund Picks
July Stock and Fund Picks
July 27: The state of the economy is that it appears that only the end of inflation, Fed tightening, or the war in Ukraine will kick things into a positive direction. As it is, the leading economic indicators (LEI) have fallen for four months in a row while the coincident and lagging indicators still remain… Continue reading July Stock and Fund Picks
June Stock and Fund Picks
June 29: Not much has changed during the month. Expect uncertainty and pessimism regarding Fed tightening and the likely outcome along with geopolitical fatigue to continue dominating the markets. Markets have been down hard during 17 weeks this year and moderately positive in only 8 weeks. Like all trends, it will run out eventually. In… Continue reading June Stock and Fund Picks
May Stock and Fund Picks
May 26, 2022: This week appears to be one of an expected series of short-run rallies within a longer-run downtrend of negative market sentiment. Negative sentiment caused by Fed tightening and liquidity drain, inflation, and the war in Ukraine appear likely to remain for a while. That said, short-run rallies often suggest an approaching bottom.… Continue reading May Stock and Fund Picks
April Stock and Fund Picks
April 14: Let’s hope inflation is nearing its zenith and will return to earth in the near future. The “Poo-tin” appears to be attempting a regroup and retry with a smaller objective in mind. Let’s hope that fails too. British intelligence seems to imply only a 50-50 chance against the more motivated but outnumbered Ukrainians.… Continue reading April Stock and Fund Picks