September 27, 2006: The Federal Reserves discount rate increased from 3.75% to 4.00% with the latest rate hike. The rationale for hiking rates is soaring inflationary expectations driven by a supply-side economic shock. The economic shock is mainly due to gas and oil shortages and tariffs. U.S. and global bond yields are rising. This is… Continue reading September Stock and Fund Picks
Category: Stock Market Fluctuations
August Stock and Fund Picks
August 30, 2026: The probability of a rate hike has increased from about 45% to 65% as of the Fed’s last meeting. Weak jobs numbers and continued declines in labor force participation may yet reduce that probability, however. The bigger issue looming over the market are potential illegal actions by the Trump administration. These actions… Continue reading August Stock and Fund Picks
July Stock and Fund Picks
July 30, 2026: Iran continues to target U.S. assets and allies in the Middle East. Efforts by Trump to negotiate with Iran have been unsuccessful, and the conflict seems likely to persist for the foreseeable future. As a consequence, prices have risen significantly, with an increase of 6.2%, primarily driven by higher oil and gas… Continue reading July Stock and Fund Picks
May 2026 Stock and Fund Picks
May 24: It seems that economic cross-currents remain and provide no clear answer for the future path of stocks. The May 20, 2026, Fidelity Viewpoints notes the following: Thus, “Energy prices may hold the keys to where the stock market goes next.” A chart illustrating the causes of the oil supply crunch, as presented in… Continue reading May 2026 Stock and Fund Picks
March 2026 Stock and Fund Picks
March 18, 2026: Stronger stagflation winds blow due to increasing supply-side shocks. We now have both the internal policy shock of tariffs (or taxes) plus the external oil supply shock due to the completely unplanned-for Strait of Hormuz problem. Increases in unemployment due to slowing economic growth and inflationary pressures are therefore imminent. A Schwab… Continue reading March 2026 Stock and Fund Picks
November Stock and Fund Picks
November 20, 2025: We’ve completed our move to another state and I should be back to updating this blog more regularly as a consequence. As we slowly slide into a more distinctive stagflationary scenario resulting from an internal supply-side shock caused by increased tariffs, the Fed is increasingly uncertain as to whether it should focus… Continue reading November Stock and Fund Picks
September Update
September 24, 2025: We just moved from one state to another and I have been unable to keep up the blog until now. Because I have a Ph.D. in economics and a much vaster knowledge base in the areas of this subject, I can make predictions that will happen in the future with a high… Continue reading September Update
April 2025 Stock and Fund Picks
April 3, 2025: The “effect [of reciprocal tariffs] will be lower economic growth, higher inflation, higher unemployment, the destruction of wealth and a tax increase on American families,” economist Jason Furman, a former chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, recently explained. “It will deal a blow to the rules underlying the global trading… Continue reading April 2025 Stock and Fund Picks
March 2025 Stock and Fund Picks
March 10: We are very definitely headed into a tariff induced recession characterized by stagflation. Taxes (what tariffs are) cannot result in prosperity. Instead, they will cause reduced economic activity in all trade related industries. Moreover, retaliatory tariffs will reduce our exports and increase unemployment in our more efficient exporting industries. The higher tariffs on… Continue reading March 2025 Stock and Fund Picks
July 2024 Stock and Fund Picks
July 15, 2024: Projections for a slowly declining inflation rate appears to be on track and by the beginning of 2025 the Fed’s inflation target of 2% may become more or less realized. The mean’s the Fed chose to reduce inflation has involved an attempt to slow aggregate demand growth relative to that of aggregate… Continue reading July 2024 Stock and Fund Picks