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February Stock and Fund Picks

All business cycle monitoring sites from Seeking Alpha indicate an ongoing expansion that is simply slowing down due to a lack of private sector investment, industrial production, and anti-supply-side protectionist trade policies. Instead of cyclical indicators only, I prefer to also look at the misery index as an indicator of a potential recession. The misery index is the positive or direct relationship between the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. This relationship replaces the old and no-longer in existence Phillips…

July Stock and Fund Picks

Week 1 (July 1 - 5): As opposed to just kicking the can down the road and giving the Chinese spy company Huawei a life-line, the bullish bias in the market has interpreted the trade truce with China as an actual trade deal . As you know, I'm not in favor of doing any business with the Communist Chinese government or it's enterprise front Huawei. The Fed rate cut is still on the table and this feeds into the bullishness…

June 2019 Stock and Fund Picks

Week 1 (June 3 - 7): Tariffs on Mexico that would go in effect on June 12 will be bad for Mexico, US companies staying competitive by operating in Mexico and the stock market, dovish Fed or not. Estimates of the cost of tariffs on consumers is now twice as much as the benefit from the tax cuts. This erodes any net gains from all positive supply-side policies (deregulation and tax cuts) already enacted. Global growth forecasts have decreased substantially…

May Stock and Fund Picks

Week 1 - 2 (May 1 - 10): Trump trade woe's continue. When companies buy high bang-per-buck (Productivity divided by cost) resources in foreign countries like Mexico, such as with our automobile industry, it maximizes output per cost or, equivalently, minimizes cost per unit of output. In other words, our automobile industry becomes more competitive by using Mexico's production resources. China has a communist government and cannot be traded with or used for production because the cost of stealing our…

December Stock and Fund Picks

Week 1 (Dec. 1 - 9): The market is trying to price in the Trump trade protectionism policies.  It has been doing that since January of this year.  The only other politician advocating trade protectionism is Bernie Sanders.  This tells you that such a negative supply-side policy is going to be no good.  Let's hope that Trump comes to an accord with the Chinese and the EU before we have a global recession.  In the meantime, do like that banks…

November Stock and Fund Picks

Week 1 (Nov. 1 - 9): The October sell-off has created opportunities for stock pickers.  On the other hand, Friday's hot inflation read means the market is now sure of a Dec. Fed rate hike.  As Warren Buffet warns,  "Interest rates are like gravity to stocks."  A more mechanical rationale for this phenomenon is that the higher the interest rate the higher is the discount rate on expected future earnings for stocks.  This simply lowers their present values. If you're…

October Stock and Fund Picks

Week 1 (October 1 - 5): Fed interest rate hikes are the new source of market volatility.  Cramer says that he doesn't like this market.  Given his experience, that's a big red flag.  Cramer also suggests that the sell-off has begun.  Another red flag.   Generally, stocks do well during rising rates until, of course, the Fed goes too far.  Right now the Fed is still below a neutral discount rate or Fed funds rate target.  Thus, while the Fed…

September Market Beating Stock Picks

Week 1 (Sept. 4 - 7): Trade is still a negative while just about everything else (eg., domestic economy and GDP growth, relatively low real interest rates, and company earnings) are positives. On a different issue, I don't get why the NFL allows anyone to take a knee during the national anthem.  There are a billion and one things to protest and every player can take a knee for one reason or another such that no one stands.  This disrespects…

August Market Beating Stock Picks

Week 2 (August 13 - 17): Back from 3 plus weeks of vacation.  The office staff is back to work. [caption id="attachment_782" align="alignnone" width="5312"] Busy and Tia.[/caption] Here are some pictures taken during my time away from my computer.  Guess where? Growth stocks to consider:  SNDR, VRS, VSI, and ZBRA.  SNDR pays a small dividend.  New dividend growth stocks for your retirement portfolios might include OSB and GLNCY.  The best ETFs are JSML, RZG, and VIOG. The collapse of the…

Free Market Beating Stock Picks for July

Week 1 (July 2 - 6):   If Pres. Trump makes a trade deal to reduce tariffs (taxes on imports) it will be pro supply side along with the earlier tax cuts and deregulation.  If he stays protectionist, economic growth will slow, both domestically and globally.  The later problem may even lead to a recession.  Within that context of uncertainty, I'll recommend the following growth stocks:  AY, GLNCY, GBX, MRO, NCS, CIVI, and CONN.  Strong dividend growth comes with GLNCY. …