March 10: We are very definitely headed into a tariff induced recession characterized by stagflation. Taxes (what tariffs are) cannot result in prosperity. Instead, they will cause reduced economic activity in all trade related industries. Moreover, retaliatory tariffs will reduce our exports and increase unemployment in our more efficient exporting industries. The higher tariffs on… Continue reading March 2025 Stock and Fund Picks
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Warren Buffet explains the wealth gap
An advanced market economy Buffett believes the market economy has become more and more “specialized” with “economic rewards flowing to people with specialized talents.” This, he says, has caused the wealth gap with many people barely getting by while others thrive. “It was an agrarian economy a couple hundred years ago,” he said in an… Continue reading Warren Buffet explains the wealth gap
May 2024 Stock and Fund Picks
May 9, 2024: Aggregate demand management by the Fed hasn’t slowed its biggest aspect, Consumer Demand, all that much. Consumers running out of pandemic savings and running up too much debt may become the more predominant effect. By contrast, aggregate supply has taken care of itself. That said, the higher interest rates have slowed growth… Continue reading May 2024 Stock and Fund Picks
December 2023 Stock and Fund Picks
December 21: We appear to be near the bottom of the current business cycle. It’s a very shallow bottom with no clear signal as to when corporate profits might also bottom out. The upside will be characterized by slow growth and stock prices that become overvalued quickly during rally’s and lead to frequent bouts of… Continue reading December 2023 Stock and Fund Picks
January Stock and Fund Picks
January 20: Sooner or later all good things, even overdue pull backs and corrections, must come to an end. By now those trading on the emotion of “fear” about alleged interest rate increases will have capitulated and sold near the bottom. Naturally, they will buy back in near a top. Then they will vote for… Continue reading January Stock and Fund Picks
July Stock and Fund Picks
July 6: Looks like the stock markets are topped out and dependent on earnings increases to move them any higher. The sector doing the best during the last 3 months appears to be health care as indicated by the first three top ETFs: XLV, IYH, and VHT. The top 5 ETFs include two related to… Continue reading July Stock and Fund Picks
April Stock and Fund Picks
Stay the course: Stay in cash and do not buy any new stocks or funds at this time. If I don’t recommend you deploy capital then I can’t be accused of giving you overly risky or just plain bad advise. If you already have a dividend reinvestment portfolio then just hold it and let it… Continue reading April Stock and Fund Picks
February Stock and Fund Picks
All business cycle monitoring sites from Seeking Alpha indicate an ongoing expansion that is simply slowing down due to a lack of private sector investment, industrial production, and anti-supply-side protectionist trade policies. Instead of cyclical indicators only, I prefer to also look at the misery index as an indicator of a potential recession. The misery… Continue reading February Stock and Fund Picks
January 2020 Stock and Fund Picks
All policies have negative consequences. The hope is that positive consequences will outweigh those that are negative. For example, in the late 1990s Pres. Clinton placed recruitment restrictions on the CIA that caused its staff to shrink by half. Clinton also cut CIA and military funding substantially. The 9/11 terrorist attacks followed. Bill Clinton also… Continue reading January 2020 Stock and Fund Picks
September Market Beating Stock Picks
Week 1 (Sept. 4 – 7): Trade is still a negative while just about everything else (eg., domestic economy and GDP growth, relatively low real interest rates, and company earnings) are positives. On a different issue, I don’t get why the NFL allows anyone to take a knee during the national anthem. There are a… Continue reading September Market Beating Stock Picks