google.com, pub-2431335701173086, DIRECT, f08c47fec0942fa0 Current Economic Status Archives - MarchéEconomics google.com, pub-2431335701173086, DIRECT, f08c47fec0942fa0

Current Economic Status

Tag

February Stock and Fund Picks

All business cycle monitoring sites from Seeking Alpha indicate an ongoing expansion that is simply slowing down due to a lack of private sector investment, industrial production, and anti-supply-side protectionist trade policies. Instead of cyclical indicators only, I prefer to also look at the misery index as an indicator of a potential recession. The misery index is the positive or direct relationship between the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. This relationship replaces the old and no-longer in existence Phillips…

April Stock and Fund Picks

Week 1  April is starting off well.  Still have doubts about Trump's trade policies, especially towards Mexico.  The China problem centers around forced technology transfer, or simply technology theft by a communist government.  We should never have let any of that happen.  But Mexico is simply a producer with higher bang- per- buck labor resources.  Any resources value per dollar is its productivity or value added divided by its price.  That's the same principle as when we expect consumers to…

November Stock and Fund Picks

Week 1 (Nov. 1 - 9): The October sell-off has created opportunities for stock pickers.  On the other hand, Friday's hot inflation read means the market is now sure of a Dec. Fed rate hike.  As Warren Buffet warns,  "Interest rates are like gravity to stocks."  A more mechanical rationale for this phenomenon is that the higher the interest rate the higher is the discount rate on expected future earnings for stocks.  This simply lowers their present values. If you're…

October Stock and Fund Picks

Week 1 (October 1 - 5): Fed interest rate hikes are the new source of market volatility.  Cramer says that he doesn't like this market.  Given his experience, that's a big red flag.  Cramer also suggests that the sell-off has begun.  Another red flag.   Generally, stocks do well during rising rates until, of course, the Fed goes too far.  Right now the Fed is still below a neutral discount rate or Fed funds rate target.  Thus, while the Fed…

September Market Beating Stock Picks

Week 1 (Sept. 4 - 7): Trade is still a negative while just about everything else (eg., domestic economy and GDP growth, relatively low real interest rates, and company earnings) are positives. On a different issue, I don't get why the NFL allows anyone to take a knee during the national anthem.  There are a billion and one things to protest and every player can take a knee for one reason or another such that no one stands.  This disrespects…

Free Market Beating Stock Picks for July

Week 1 (July 2 - 6):   If Pres. Trump makes a trade deal to reduce tariffs (taxes on imports) it will be pro supply side along with the earlier tax cuts and deregulation.  If he stays protectionist, economic growth will slow, both domestically and globally.  The later problem may even lead to a recession.  Within that context of uncertainty, I'll recommend the following growth stocks:  AY, GLNCY, GBX, MRO, NCS, CIVI, and CONN.  Strong dividend growth comes with GLNCY. …

Free Stock Picks for June 2018

Week 1 (June 1 - 8):   The economy is just right.  Short-term calm and low volatility usually create a "smart-money" outflow and a short-term dip that you should buy . . . maybe by tomorrow.  Consider the growth stocks GTES, and OFG.  Look at the ETFs:  XLI, PSCI, and XSD.   Good dividend growth stocks are CVRR, STX, HCLP and TRTN.  No one can predict the future or the next recession so all attempts to do so are merely…

May Market Beating Stock and Fund Picks

Week 1 (May 1 - 4):  Uncertainty about the Fed, a flattening yield curve, and China trade issues are offsetting strong earnings and a higher rate of economic growth.  The result is a trading range for stocks.  Eventually, something must give and the market will head one way or another.  Hopefully, that will be another leg up.  For growth stocks, consider DAN and HUN.  The best ETF is EWS and the best mutual fund is FKCSX.  The best dividend growth…

March 2018 Market Beating Stock/Fund Picks

Week 1/2 (March 1 -9): Markets are beginning to adapt to real growth less the uncertainty of trade-war possibilities.  The growth and earnings side are great while the trade-war issue will probably remain for some time before hopefully fading in importance.  With that I'll recommend some stocks and funds to consider adding to your portfolio.  The Gary Cohn resignation may generate nothing more than a short-run buying opportunity.  I sympathize with Gary Cohn.  He is a free-trader, as am I.  Placing…

February 2018 Stock State

February 12 update: The correction or pull-back of about 10% is running its course.  Much of the attention focused on headwinds created by higher interest rates (as the 10 year government bond heads for 2.9% is an overstated concern.  Imagine you are flying a small airplane into a headwind.  The FED has helped you (the stock market) fly faster by buying government bonds (and other dept) to keep interest rates lower.  This builds up the FEDs balance sheet.  Unwinding the…

google.com, pub-2431335701173086, DIRECT, f08c47fec0942fa0