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February Stock and Fund Picks

Week 1 (Feb. 1 - 9): I am always amused when I hear a stock described as "poised for explosive growth."  It's a catchy line but the same holds for any stock in the market.  Odds are, you will be right some of the time.  The only thing I will say about my stock picks is that they are subject to rigorous research and systematic screening and that some of them, even in the short-run of only a month, will…

Activist Monetary Policy Conundrum

Recently, many economic and FED commentators point out that if we have a recession we will need a tighter FED balance sheet and higher interest rates in order to fight the recession using stimulative monetary policy.  At the same time, others have pointed out that if interest rates get to high it will cause a recession.  This leaves us with a logical conflict.  If the FED actively manages the economy to have higher short-term interest rates and thereby be in…

January 2018 Stock State

The economy continues to do well, but not too well.  That is, it is chugging along rather steadily but not so fast as to suggest closing in on the next recession any time soon.  The stock market is not always in lock step with the economy because it rests on not only fundamentals, but such things as investor expectations and sentiment as well.  The recent supply side tax cut that reduced corporates rates appears to underly market exuberance.  If exuberance…

December 2017 Stock State

December 1, 2017 update: Do not follow the herd, especially if it appears panicky.  You'll just run off the cliff with everybody else.  If spent all your cash because you thought this correction would be like previous ones that were short in duration, just act like Warren Buffett and be patient.  All good things come to those who wait.  Amazon and Facebook both sold off earlier this year.  Jumping out of them when they did just cost you money.  They…

November 2017 Stock State

November 15 update: We keep doing what works until it doesn't.  Be careful about buying on small dips while assuming that tomorrow the market will upon on the upside.  This may quit working with tomorrow becoming another down day.  This is characteristic of a stock market that rolls-over into a larger correction . . . which we badly need.  Given a larger correction of say 3 - 5% a global bottom, as opposed to the daily local minimums, you may…

Some Thoughts on Modern Day Democracy

I'll start with the premise that most people, including those with resources in the markets, do not want or need overregulation. Social progressivity is therefore are desirable agenda. So too is classical liberalism in which there are free markets and limited government. With regard to economics, the limited government only addresses resource misallocation caused by market processes (i.e., under production of public goods, the existence of market externalities, decisions based on asymmetrical information, and excessive market concentration among unions and…

September 2017 Stock State

September 8 update: Earnings are strong as are profits and the underlying economy. Yet there are potential problems with which we must consider. First, it is September. Typically, stocks do well up to about the middle of September and then tend to sell off such that the month ends in the red. Some technical analysts suggest that Monday the 18th could be the day selling begins in earnest. Look out below . . . and then buy because October -…

August Stock State: Market Outlook and Strategy

August 9, 2017 update: Two things that matter: 1) August is typically a negative month for stocks. 2) Geopolitical risk related to N. Korea causes investors to take money out of the market. You can choose to ride out August if you believe, like I do, that the last quarter will reverse course and be strongly favorable. You can hold more cash and buy gold and silver as well. I'd also hedge my bets and buy a 3x leverage inverse…

July 2017 Weekly Stock Recommendations

Stock picks for the 1st week of July, 2017 (July 3 - 7), with markets closed July 4, 2017. The tech sell-off created buying opportunities. July, week 1 stock recommendations must include AAPL. I'd also consider TREE, TCMD, NTES, ANET, JD, JPM, CRIUF, and ARCC. ARCC is a large, solid business development company that pays about 9.3% and has also pulled back recently, making it a good buy. CRIUF is a Canadian utilities company that pays about 8% and offers…

June Stock State: Market Strategy and Outlook

June 2, 2017 update: Markets are gaining momentum. As of this Thursday and Friday, a risk-on appetite from strong labor market data and positive expectations among businesses and consumers led to put more money into smaller, riskier growth stocks. This is a good sign. Moreover, it reinforces the prospects for a continuation of the current bull-market in stocks. Except for the stock market, the economy has been on a recessionary trend the last 8 years. It is the improvement in…