All business cycle monitoring sites from Seeking Alpha indicate an ongoing expansion that is simply slowing down due to a lack of private sector investment, industrial production, and anti-supply-side protectionist trade policies. Instead of cyclical indicators only, I prefer to also look at the misery index as an indicator of a potential recession. The misery… Continue reading February Stock and Fund Picks
Tag: Current Economic Status
April Stock and Fund Picks
Week 1 April is starting off well. Still have doubts about Trump’s trade policies, especially towards Mexico. The China problem centers around forced technology transfer, or simply technology theft by a communist government. We should never have let any of that happen. But Mexico is simply a producer with higher bang- per- buck labor resources. … Continue reading April Stock and Fund Picks
November Stock and Fund Picks
Week 1 (Nov. 1 – 9): The October sell-off has created opportunities for stock pickers. On the other hand, Friday’s hot inflation read means the market is now sure of a Dec. Fed rate hike. As Warren Buffet warns, “Interest rates are like gravity to stocks.” A more mechanical rationale for this phenomenon is that… Continue reading November Stock and Fund Picks
October Stock and Fund Picks
Week 1 (October 1 – 5): Fed interest rate hikes are the new source of market volatility. Cramer says that he doesn’t like this market. Given his experience, that’s a big red flag. Cramer also suggests that the sell-off has begun. Another red flag. Generally, stocks do well during rising rates until, of course,… Continue reading October Stock and Fund Picks
September Market Beating Stock Picks
Week 1 (Sept. 4 – 7): Trade is still a negative while just about everything else (eg., domestic economy and GDP growth, relatively low real interest rates, and company earnings) are positives. On a different issue, I don’t get why the NFL allows anyone to take a knee during the national anthem. There are a… Continue reading September Market Beating Stock Picks
Free Market Beating Stock Picks for July
Week 1 (July 2 – 6): If Pres. Trump makes a trade deal to reduce tariffs (taxes on imports) it will be pro supply side along with the earlier tax cuts and deregulation. If he stays protectionist, economic growth will slow, both domestically and globally. The later problem may even lead to a recession. … Continue reading Free Market Beating Stock Picks for July
Free Stock Picks for June 2018
Week 1 (June 1 – 8): The economy is just right. Short-term calm and low volatility usually create a “smart-money” outflow and a short-term dip that you should buy . . . maybe by tomorrow. Consider the growth stocks GTES, and OFG. Look at the ETFs: XLI, PSCI, and XSD. Good dividend growth… Continue reading Free Stock Picks for June 2018
May Market Beating Stock and Fund Picks
Week 1 (May 1 – 4): Uncertainty about the Fed, a flattening yield curve, and China trade issues are offsetting strong earnings and a higher rate of economic growth. The result is a trading range for stocks. Eventually, something must give and the market will head one way or another. Hopefully, that will be another… Continue reading May Market Beating Stock and Fund Picks
March 2018 Market Beating Stock/Fund Picks
Week 1/2 (March 1 -9): Markets are beginning to adapt to real growth less the uncertainty of trade-war possibilities. The growth and earnings side are great while the trade-war issue will probably remain for some time before hopefully fading in importance. With that I’ll recommend some stocks and funds to consider adding to your portfolio. The… Continue reading March 2018 Market Beating Stock/Fund Picks
February 2018 Stock State
February 12 update: The correction or pull-back of about 10% is running its course. Much of the attention focused on headwinds created by higher interest rates (as the 10 year government bond heads for 2.9% is an overstated concern. Imagine you are flying a small airplane into a headwind. The FED has helped you (the… Continue reading February 2018 Stock State