google.com, pub-2431335701173086, DIRECT, f08c47fec0942fa0 Economy and Markets Archives - MarchéEconomics

Economy and Markets

Tag

April Stock and Fund Picks

Week 1  April is starting off well.  Still have doubts about Trump's trade policies, especially towards Mexico.  The China problem centers around forced technology transfer, or simply technology theft by a communist government.  We should never have let any of that happen.  But Mexico is simply a producer with higher bang- per- buck labor resources.  Any resources value per dollar is its productivity or value added divided by its price.  That's the same principle as when we expect consumers to…

January 2019 Stock and Fund Picks

Week 1 (Jan 1 - 8): It is hard to read the market. The Fed still wants to pair down its balance sheet by letting its bonds expire or to sell them. By not buying or selling US treasury's it will still cause interest rates to rise. Trump still doesn't understand the more efficient allocation effects of specialization and trade so whatever deals he makes will still make us worse off by decreasing production and increasing prices, inflation, and unemployment.…

November Stock and Fund Picks

Week 1 (Nov. 1 - 9): The October sell-off has created opportunities for stock pickers.  On the other hand, Friday's hot inflation read means the market is now sure of a Dec. Fed rate hike.  As Warren Buffet warns,  "Interest rates are like gravity to stocks."  A more mechanical rationale for this phenomenon is that the higher the interest rate the higher is the discount rate on expected future earnings for stocks.  This simply lowers their present values. If you're…

October Stock and Fund Picks

Week 1 (October 1 - 5): Fed interest rate hikes are the new source of market volatility.  Cramer says that he doesn't like this market.  Given his experience, that's a big red flag.  Cramer also suggests that the sell-off has begun.  Another red flag.   Generally, stocks do well during rising rates until, of course, the Fed goes too far.  Right now the Fed is still below a neutral discount rate or Fed funds rate target.  Thus, while the Fed…

September Market Beating Stock Picks

Week 1 (Sept. 4 - 7): Trade is still a negative while just about everything else (eg., domestic economy and GDP growth, relatively low real interest rates, and company earnings) are positives. On a different issue, I don't get why the NFL allows anyone to take a knee during the national anthem.  There are a billion and one things to protest and every player can take a knee for one reason or another such that no one stands.  This disrespects…

Free Market Beating Stock Picks for July

Week 1 (July 2 - 6):   If Pres. Trump makes a trade deal to reduce tariffs (taxes on imports) it will be pro supply side along with the earlier tax cuts and deregulation.  If he stays protectionist, economic growth will slow, both domestically and globally.  The later problem may even lead to a recession.  Within that context of uncertainty, I'll recommend the following growth stocks:  AY, GLNCY, GBX, MRO, NCS, CIVI, and CONN.  Strong dividend growth comes with GLNCY. …

Free Stock Picks for June 2018

Week 1 (June 1 - 8):   The economy is just right.  Short-term calm and low volatility usually create a "smart-money" outflow and a short-term dip that you should buy . . . maybe by tomorrow.  Consider the growth stocks GTES, and OFG.  Look at the ETFs:  XLI, PSCI, and XSD.   Good dividend growth stocks are CVRR, STX, HCLP and TRTN.  No one can predict the future or the next recession so all attempts to do so are merely…

May Market Beating Stock and Fund Picks

Week 1 (May 1 - 4):  Uncertainty about the Fed, a flattening yield curve, and China trade issues are offsetting strong earnings and a higher rate of economic growth.  The result is a trading range for stocks.  Eventually, something must give and the market will head one way or another.  Hopefully, that will be another leg up.  For growth stocks, consider DAN and HUN.  The best ETF is EWS and the best mutual fund is FKCSX.  The best dividend growth…

Pugonomics 101 for Investors

I have two pugs.  I am not their master.  Instead, I work for them.   They are well cared for and appear grateful.  this is not trickle down economics, for which, by the way, there is no existing theory.  Given the arrogance and outright laziness of my pugs it seems more like trickle up economics. The analogy holds for investors.  When you buy a fund or stock you are using your financial capital to hire firms and fund managers to…

March 2018 Market Beating Stock/Fund Picks

Week 1/2 (March 1 -9): Markets are beginning to adapt to real growth less the uncertainty of trade-war possibilities.  The growth and earnings side are great while the trade-war issue will probably remain for some time before hopefully fading in importance.  With that I'll recommend some stocks and funds to consider adding to your portfolio.  The Gary Cohn resignation may generate nothing more than a short-run buying opportunity.  I sympathize with Gary Cohn.  He is a free-trader, as am I.  Placing…