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August Stock and Fund Picks

August 24: Inflation still appears as mostly a supply-side phenomenon which is exacerbated from time-to-time by strict, zero Coved tolerance from the Chinese government that leads to shipping port shutdowns. September will see supplemental unemployment end in all States which will ameliorate the supply-side constraints in the U.S. to some degree. The Delta variant is causing more trouble than anticipated but may be ready to peak by the end of August. However, schools pose a problem in that in-class instruction…

April Stock and Fund Picks

Stay the course: Stay in cash and do not buy any new stocks or funds at this time. If I don't recommend you deploy capital then I can't be accused of giving you overly risky or just plain bad advise. If you already have a dividend reinvestment portfolio then just hold it and let it buy up shares at cheaper prices. For those with a CEF income portfolio, just hold it (of course, any MLP funds are riskier during the…

March 2020 State of the Markets

Last week of February priced in only a part of the negative supply-side shock of the Corona virus outbreak. When theme parks and public events such as the Olympics are either under consideration for cancelation or being canceled at an accelerating rate, people are staying home rather than going out such as in Italy and France or tourism falls to zero in some geographic regions, things are looking pretty bad. The virus tends to incubate within an infected person for…

August Stock and Fund Picks

Week 1 -2 (Aug. 1 - 15): There are changes to my personal portfolio from July. Specifically, I'm dropping EPR and CCMNX and adding PHD and BSL. These changes are now reflected in the updated portfolio. Most stock analysts are weak at Open Economy Macroeconomics and tend to look only at the initial static effect on GDP from increased tariffs on China announced for Sept. 1st. This abstract view underestimates the vastness of the negative macroeconomic consequences of Trump's tariffs.…

March Stock and Fund Picks

Weeks 1 - 2: Looks like things have decided to cool off and things are relatively stable. Trump and the Chinese can still cause a major disruption so be prepared. Since you can't know when things might change and it is political rather than fundamental it is probably best to plan on holding through any disruption. That said, panic selling is always a buying opportunity so I'd have some cash on hand. Stocks to look at for growth are JLL,…

February Stock Picks

Week 1 - 2 (Feb. 1 - 15): More trade uncertainty for March 1st and looming government shutdown #2 are on the horizon. Have been all month so haven't wanted to commit to anything in the stock market. The Chinese will be watching the compromise bill to avert the shutdown so as to guess how soft a deal Trump might accept. For those inclined to be in the market consider ARCH for growth; RC and RIO as dividend growth stocks;…

October Stock and Fund Picks

Week 1 (October 1 - 5): Fed interest rate hikes are the new source of market volatility.  Cramer says that he doesn't like this market.  Given his experience, that's a big red flag.  Cramer also suggests that the sell-off has begun.  Another red flag.   Generally, stocks do well during rising rates until, of course, the Fed goes too far.  Right now the Fed is still below a neutral discount rate or Fed funds rate target.  Thus, while the Fed…

September Market Beating Stock Picks

Week 1 (Sept. 4 - 7): Trade is still a negative while just about everything else (eg., domestic economy and GDP growth, relatively low real interest rates, and company earnings) are positives. On a different issue, I don't get why the NFL allows anyone to take a knee during the national anthem.  There are a billion and one things to protest and every player can take a knee for one reason or another such that no one stands.  This disrespects…

Free Stock Picks for June 2018

Week 1 (June 1 - 8):   The economy is just right.  Short-term calm and low volatility usually create a "smart-money" outflow and a short-term dip that you should buy . . . maybe by tomorrow.  Consider the growth stocks GTES, and OFG.  Look at the ETFs:  XLI, PSCI, and XSD.   Good dividend growth stocks are CVRR, STX, HCLP and TRTN.  No one can predict the future or the next recession so all attempts to do so are merely…

May Market Beating Stock and Fund Picks

Week 1 (May 1 - 4):  Uncertainty about the Fed, a flattening yield curve, and China trade issues are offsetting strong earnings and a higher rate of economic growth.  The result is a trading range for stocks.  Eventually, something must give and the market will head one way or another.  Hopefully, that will be another leg up.  For growth stocks, consider DAN and HUN.  The best ETF is EWS and the best mutual fund is FKCSX.  The best dividend growth…