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April Market Beating Stock/Fund Picks

Trump remains the stock markets worst enemy.  True, China is a problem.  They cause 95% of our trade deficit, steel our technology and intellectual property, and respond to our complaints with a trade war.  Re-allocating plant and equipment from China to Mexico may seem plausible but it is likely that Trump would sabotage that.  Re-allocating capital to the US would only lead to less efficient production, higher prices, inflation and increasing demand for workers from Mexico.  Trump would oppose the…

Pugonomics 101 for Investors

I have two pugs.  I am not their master.  Instead, I work for them.   They are well cared for and appear grateful.  this is not trickle down economics, for which, by the way, there is no existing theory.  Given the arrogance and outright laziness of my pugs it seems more like trickle up economics. The analogy holds for investors.  When you buy a fund or stock you are using your financial capital to hire firms and fund managers to…

February 2018 Stock State

February 12 update: The correction or pull-back of about 10% is running its course.  Much of the attention focused on headwinds created by higher interest rates (as the 10 year government bond heads for 2.9% is an overstated concern.  Imagine you are flying a small airplane into a headwind.  The FED has helped you (the stock market) fly faster by buying government bonds (and other dept) to keep interest rates lower.  This builds up the FEDs balance sheet.  Unwinding the…

February Stock and Fund Picks

Week 1 (Feb. 1 - 9): I am always amused when I hear a stock described as "poised for explosive growth."  It's a catchy line but the same holds for any stock in the market.  Odds are, you will be right some of the time.  The only thing I will say about my stock picks is that they are subject to rigorous research and systematic screening and that some of them, even in the short-run of only a month, will…

January 2018 Stock State

The economy continues to do well, but not too well.  That is, it is chugging along rather steadily but not so fast as to suggest closing in on the next recession any time soon.  The stock market is not always in lock step with the economy because it rests on not only fundamentals, but such things as investor expectations and sentiment as well.  The recent supply side tax cut that reduced corporates rates appears to underly market exuberance.  If exuberance…

January 2018 Weekly Stock Picks

Week 1 (Jan 2 - 5): The conservative strategy is to not chase stocks when they are up, but buy on the dips instead.  Maybe wait for a 1% - 2% pull back in the market or a given stock or fund.  For growth, take a look at OLLI, MULE, EDIT, GBT, HUN, AME, NUAN, PTI, HMLSF (Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences Index ETG), TPL, NUAN, AMG, MAS, and IBKR.  For dividends consider GSBD and BREUF.  Pull backs require you keeep…

December 2017 Stock State

December 1, 2017 update: Do not follow the herd, especially if it appears panicky.  You'll just run off the cliff with everybody else.  If spent all your cash because you thought this correction would be like previous ones that were short in duration, just act like Warren Buffett and be patient.  All good things come to those who wait.  Amazon and Facebook both sold off earlier this year.  Jumping out of them when they did just cost you money.  They…

November 2017 Stock State

November 15 update: We keep doing what works until it doesn't.  Be careful about buying on small dips while assuming that tomorrow the market will upon on the upside.  This may quit working with tomorrow becoming another down day.  This is characteristic of a stock market that rolls-over into a larger correction . . . which we badly need.  Given a larger correction of say 3 - 5% a global bottom, as opposed to the daily local minimums, you may…

October 2017 Stock State

September 6 update: Investors can probably ignore this. Trades pay attention. High rates of growth, the higher the worse, combined with complacent or Pollyanna investors along with stock analysts that give in to assuming an unrelenting upward trending stocks is a circumstance that inevitably leads to a correction. Listen to Cramer (Mad Money). He has experience beyond what most of us have. Hold more cash, be ready to hedge (buy TZA or TVIX), and don't panic sell. Given the solid…

September 2017 Stock Pick Performance

September was another challenging month. So many fear October that sellers tend to dominate the month and finding stocks that might make gains is more challenging. The Base stock portfolio beat the NASDAQ and performed nearly as well as the DOW and S & P 500. The best performer was the regional banks (KRE). Shopify (SHOP) was second best, but has since been "short bombed" by a Citron analyst and will need to find a new bottom, probably somewhere below…