google.com, pub-2431335701173086, DIRECT, f08c47fec0942fa0 Recession indicators Archives - MarchéEconomics

Recession indicators

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July Stock and Fund Picks

July 27: The state of the economy is that it appears that only the end of inflation, Fed tightening, or the war in Ukraine will kick things into a positive direction. As it is, the leading economic indicators (LEI) have fallen for four months in a row while the coincident and lagging indicators still remain positive. Luckily, LEI is less accurate at predicating a recession than an economic recovery. On the other hand, the IMF now appears to fear the…

February Stock and Fund Picks

All business cycle monitoring sites from Seeking Alpha indicate an ongoing expansion that is simply slowing down due to a lack of private sector investment, industrial production, and anti-supply-side protectionist trade policies. Instead of cyclical indicators only, I prefer to also look at the misery index as an indicator of a potential recession. The misery index is the positive or direct relationship between the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. This relationship replaces the old and no-longer in existence Phillips…