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August Stock and Fund Picks

August 24: Inflation still appears as mostly a supply-side phenomenon which is exacerbated from time-to-time by strict, zero Coved tolerance from the Chinese government that leads to shipping port shutdowns. September will see supplemental unemployment end in all States which will ameliorate the supply-side constraints in the U.S. to some degree. The Delta variant is causing more trouble than anticipated but may be ready to peak by the end of August. However, schools pose a problem in that in-class instruction…

August Stock and Fund Picks

Week 1 -2 (Aug. 1 - 15): There are changes to my personal portfolio from July. Specifically, I'm dropping EPR and CCMNX and adding PHD and BSL. These changes are now reflected in the updated portfolio. Most stock analysts are weak at Open Economy Macroeconomics and tend to look only at the initial static effect on GDP from increased tariffs on China announced for Sept. 1st. This abstract view underestimates the vastness of the negative macroeconomic consequences of Trump's tariffs.…

July Stock and Fund Picks

Week 1 (July 1 - 5): As opposed to just kicking the can down the road and giving the Chinese spy company Huawei a life-line, the bullish bias in the market has interpreted the trade truce with China as an actual trade deal . As you know, I'm not in favor of doing any business with the Communist Chinese government or it's enterprise front Huawei. The Fed rate cut is still on the table and this feeds into the bullishness…

April Stock and Fund Picks

Week 1  April is starting off well.  Still have doubts about Trump's trade policies, especially towards Mexico.  The China problem centers around forced technology transfer, or simply technology theft by a communist government.  We should never have let any of that happen.  But Mexico is simply a producer with higher bang- per- buck labor resources.  Any resources value per dollar is its productivity or value added divided by its price.  That's the same principle as when we expect consumers to…

January 2019 Stock and Fund Picks

Week 1 (Jan 1 - 8): It is hard to read the market. The Fed still wants to pair down its balance sheet by letting its bonds expire or to sell them. By not buying or selling US treasury's it will still cause interest rates to rise. Trump still doesn't understand the more efficient allocation effects of specialization and trade so whatever deals he makes will still make us worse off by decreasing production and increasing prices, inflation, and unemployment.…

December Stock and Fund Picks

Week 1 (Dec. 1 - 9): The market is trying to price in the Trump trade protectionism policies.  It has been doing that since January of this year.  The only other politician advocating trade protectionism is Bernie Sanders.  This tells you that such a negative supply-side policy is going to be no good.  Let's hope that Trump comes to an accord with the Chinese and the EU before we have a global recession.  In the meantime, do like that banks…

November Stock and Fund Picks

Week 1 (Nov. 1 - 9): The October sell-off has created opportunities for stock pickers.  On the other hand, Friday's hot inflation read means the market is now sure of a Dec. Fed rate hike.  As Warren Buffet warns,  "Interest rates are like gravity to stocks."  A more mechanical rationale for this phenomenon is that the higher the interest rate the higher is the discount rate on expected future earnings for stocks.  This simply lowers their present values. If you're…

October Stock and Fund Picks

Week 1 (October 1 - 5): Fed interest rate hikes are the new source of market volatility.  Cramer says that he doesn't like this market.  Given his experience, that's a big red flag.  Cramer also suggests that the sell-off has begun.  Another red flag.   Generally, stocks do well during rising rates until, of course, the Fed goes too far.  Right now the Fed is still below a neutral discount rate or Fed funds rate target.  Thus, while the Fed…

September Market Beating Stock Picks

Week 1 (Sept. 4 - 7): Trade is still a negative while just about everything else (eg., domestic economy and GDP growth, relatively low real interest rates, and company earnings) are positives. On a different issue, I don't get why the NFL allows anyone to take a knee during the national anthem.  There are a billion and one things to protest and every player can take a knee for one reason or another such that no one stands.  This disrespects…

August Market Beating Stock Picks

Week 2 (August 13 - 17): Back from 3 plus weeks of vacation.  The office staff is back to work. [caption id="attachment_782" align="alignnone" width="5312"] Busy and Tia.[/caption] Here are some pictures taken during my time away from my computer.  Guess where? Growth stocks to consider:  SNDR, VRS, VSI, and ZBRA.  SNDR pays a small dividend.  New dividend growth stocks for your retirement portfolios might include OSB and GLNCY.  The best ETFs are JSML, RZG, and VIOG. The collapse of the…