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November Stock and Fund Picks

Week 1 (Nov. 1 - 9): The October sell-off has created opportunities for stock pickers.  On the other hand, Friday's hot inflation read means the market is now sure of a Dec. Fed rate hike.  As Warren Buffet warns,  "Interest rates are like gravity to stocks."  A more mechanical rationale for this phenomenon is that the higher the interest rate the higher is the discount rate on expected future earnings for stocks.  This simply lowers their present values. If you're…

October Stock and Fund Picks

Week 1 (October 1 - 5): Fed interest rate hikes are the new source of market volatility.  Cramer says that he doesn't like this market.  Given his experience, that's a big red flag.  Cramer also suggests that the sell-off has begun.  Another red flag.   Generally, stocks do well during rising rates until, of course, the Fed goes too far.  Right now the Fed is still below a neutral discount rate or Fed funds rate target.  Thus, while the Fed…

September Market Beating Stock Picks

Week 1 (Sept. 4 - 7): Trade is still a negative while just about everything else (eg., domestic economy and GDP growth, relatively low real interest rates, and company earnings) are positives. On a different issue, I don't get why the NFL allows anyone to take a knee during the national anthem.  There are a billion and one things to protest and every player can take a knee for one reason or another such that no one stands.  This disrespects…

August Market Beating Stock Picks

Week 2 (August 13 - 17): Back from 3 plus weeks of vacation.  The office staff is back to work. [caption id="attachment_782" align="alignnone" width="5312"] Busy and Tia.[/caption] Here are some pictures taken during my time away from my computer.  Guess where? Growth stocks to consider:  SNDR, VRS, VSI, and ZBRA.  SNDR pays a small dividend.  New dividend growth stocks for your retirement portfolios might include OSB and GLNCY.  The best ETFs are JSML, RZG, and VIOG. The collapse of the…

Free Market Beating Stock Picks for July

Week 1 (July 2 - 6):   If Pres. Trump makes a trade deal to reduce tariffs (taxes on imports) it will be pro supply side along with the earlier tax cuts and deregulation.  If he stays protectionist, economic growth will slow, both domestically and globally.  The later problem may even lead to a recession.  Within that context of uncertainty, I'll recommend the following growth stocks:  AY, GLNCY, GBX, MRO, NCS, CIVI, and CONN.  Strong dividend growth comes with GLNCY. …

Free Stock Picks for June 2018

Week 1 (June 1 - 8):   The economy is just right.  Short-term calm and low volatility usually create a "smart-money" outflow and a short-term dip that you should buy . . . maybe by tomorrow.  Consider the growth stocks GTES, and OFG.  Look at the ETFs:  XLI, PSCI, and XSD.   Good dividend growth stocks are CVRR, STX, HCLP and TRTN.  No one can predict the future or the next recession so all attempts to do so are merely…

May Market Beating Stock and Fund Picks

Week 1 (May 1 - 4):  Uncertainty about the Fed, a flattening yield curve, and China trade issues are offsetting strong earnings and a higher rate of economic growth.  The result is a trading range for stocks.  Eventually, something must give and the market will head one way or another.  Hopefully, that will be another leg up.  For growth stocks, consider DAN and HUN.  The best ETF is EWS and the best mutual fund is FKCSX.  The best dividend growth…

April Market Beating Stock/Fund Picks

Trump remains the stock markets worst enemy.  True, China is a problem.  They cause 95% of our trade deficit, steel our technology and intellectual property, and respond to our complaints with a trade war.  Re-allocating plant and equipment from China to Mexico may seem plausible but it is likely that Trump would sabotage that.  Re-allocating capital to the US would only lead to less efficient production, higher prices, inflation and increasing demand for workers from Mexico.  Trump would oppose the…

March 2018 Market Beating Stock/Fund Picks

Week 1/2 (March 1 -9): Markets are beginning to adapt to real growth less the uncertainty of trade-war possibilities.  The growth and earnings side are great while the trade-war issue will probably remain for some time before hopefully fading in importance.  With that I'll recommend some stocks and funds to consider adding to your portfolio.  The Gary Cohn resignation may generate nothing more than a short-run buying opportunity.  I sympathize with Gary Cohn.  He is a free-trader, as am I.  Placing…

March 2018 Stock State

March 1st Update: Headwinds from trade wars are on the way.  This, as indicated in the February Stock State, is our biggest stock market worry. Why are tariffs on steal and aluminum such a problem?  Trade theory, not stock market talking heads, is the answer.  Tariffs on specific commodities imposed by a large nation such as the US will effect the global price by reducing demand from a large (the US) importer.  This hurts all steal and aluminum manufacturers in…