google.com, pub-2431335701173086, DIRECT, f08c47fec0942fa0 October Stock and Fund Picks - MarchéEconomics

October Stock and Fund Picks

October 1, 2019

google.com, pub-2431335701173086, DIRECT, f08c47fec0942fa0

The last quarter appears to hinge on whether economist’s negative expectations of an economy that has slowed from 3% to 2% growth because of tariff policies will continue to slow and then fall into a recession. For the previous 2 quarters negative earnings estimates have been below actual results. That this quarters earnings will continue to beat estimates is key. For those wanting to risk the biscuit, the best growth stocks to bet on are: MTZ, PRFT, RCII, RH, SKX, CURO, GTE, NSIT, and AGCO. Dividend growth stocks expected to do well are: VGR, SID, FTAI, BPMD, FSK, NS, OKE, and WRK. The ETFs doing the best at the moment are DBJP, VIG, and SCJ.

Expectations from whatever source are leading indicators and negative expectations shift demand curves to the left, causing prices to fall which, in turn, causes production to fall off. Data, of course, is a lagging indicator and not a predictor of the future (unless it is in the form of leading economic indicators). Currently, consumer expectation’s and behavior are quite favorable and the economy and stock markets seem resilient. Unfortunately, the prospects of another socialist president will likely put a damper on everything and increasing the chancers of a recession to follow. With Investment having already disappeared due to random tariff policies, productivity will also diminish. Wage increases and productivity decreases increase production costs and reduce profits and economic growth. Within that context, socialists will again raise the minimum wage which will attract illegal immigrants (and potential socialist votes) and increase domestic unemployment. Higher taxes for socialist income redistribution programs will decrease human capital investment and incomes. But, like the Orwellian 1984, we will be told by the socialist government how much more well off we are.

Third Week (October 22) update:

I have updated my income paying and DRIP stock and fund list. As always, look for those CEFs that are selling at a price discount relative to their net asset values before investing. That way you will tend to get capital gains along with your income, which is an addition to the long-rung growth engine associated with the DRIP aspect.

Stock/Fund AUM Monthly Dividend
Income Funds (More stars= less risk)


FFC **** A/H, Stable div., EOM $890.81M 0.1120 PS, IG
PFD ***** BA/AA, Steady div, EOM $169.17M 0.0750 PS, IG Banking/util focus
HPS **** AA/BA, Steady div., BOM $599.56M 0.1100 PS, IG
FPF ***** L/BA, Growth, Steady div, MOM $1.45B 0.1350 PS, growth

RQI **** AA/H, reit CEF, stable div., MOM $1.6B 0.0800 Reit HQ fund of funds
RFI ***** BA/BA, reit CEF, stable, growth MOM $384.81M 0.0800 Reit 75% equity, 75% debt
RNP **** A/H, reit CEF, stable, growth MOM $1.15B 0.1240 Reit 50 – 70% equity
PGZ **** L/AA, stable nav/div, MOM $149.6M 0.1100 Reits, CMBS
NRO **** A/BA, entry priced, high return, MOM $254.64M 0.0400 Newberger Bergman RE/pref.

ETJ ***** L/A, Steady div/Nav, EOM $600.4M 0.0760 S, OW Risk managed, Puts and Calls
ETB **** BA/A, Steady Payer, EOM $421.81M 0.108 S, OW S&P 500 stocks
ETV **** BA/AA, Steady Payer, EOM $1.12B 0.1108 S, OW S&P 500 plus Nasdaq 100
ETY *** A/AA, Steady Payer, EOM $1.76B 0.0843 S, OW Domestic & Foreign
EXD ***** L/BA, New Stock OW, EOM $98.6M 0.0708 S, OW S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (This fund recently changed from fixed income to equity)
EVF *** A/AA, Steady Nav/Div, BOM $235.15M 0.0370 Senior Bank Loan

LSSAX * Z1, BA/H, stable nav/div, BOM $1.19B 0.0420 ITB, AB
BKT **** L/H, stable nav/var. div, MOM $391.71M 0.0344 ITB, IG, GB, AS

DMO * L/H, stable nav/div, MOM $228.54M 0.1400 MBS (min80% CMBS & RMBS)
JMT **** BA/A, stable nav/div, MOM $108.23M 0.1125 Mutisector bond, RMBS & IG

MCR **** BA/BA Mostly IG, Stable nav/div, MOM $395.42M 0.0580 HYB, mostly IG
BLW **** L/A Mostly IG, Asset backed, MOM 0.0981 HYB, mostly IG/AB
PPR **** BA/BA NIG top tier SSL, Stable, BOM $823.23M 0.0270 Bank Loan, Senior Secured
BGT ***** L/A, FR NIG SSL, Stable, MOM $287.27M 0.0668 Bank Loan, Senior Secured
FRA ***** L/A, Stable, MOM $460.86M 0.0685 Bank Loan
BSL **** BA/AA, Stable, defensive, EOM $260.64M 0.1070 Bank Loan, Short dur., FR Senior Secured
PHD **** BA/A, Stable, Defensive, MOM $257.77M 0.0625 Bank Loan, FR Senior Secured
BGT ***** L/A, FR Bank loan, stable div, MOM $287.74M 0.0764 FR, Bank Loan
FCT **** BA/A, Stable, Defensive, BOM $367.4M 0.0735 Bank Loan, FR Senior Secured, 85% Util.

GDO **** BA/AA Mostly IG, Stable nav/div, MOM $255.63M 0.1010 Diversified World Bond

BBN ***** ND/ND, Stable nav/div., MOM $1.42B 0.1188 Taxable MB, IG
NBB **** ND/ND, Stable nav/div, MOM $601.56M 0.1030 Taxable MB, IG
GBAB ***** ND/ND, stable nav/div, MOM $437.17M 0.1257 Taxable MB, IG

IOFIX *** A/AA, steadily rising nav/div, EOM $3.05B 0.0517 MultiSecB, 80% AB, Growth
JLS ***** L/A, steady, MOM $366.08M 0.1135 MultiSecB, 83% AB

GGN *** ND, Nav/Div = f(gold), MOM $612.11M 0.0500 Gold and Natural Resources
ZTR **** BA/L, large draw down/stable div., MOM $263.72M 0.1130 Total Return S&B, mostly IG
UTF *** L/AA, large draw down/growth, MOM $2.21B 0.1550 Util/Infrastructure, growth
DNP *** A/H, steady, defensive util, EOM $3.69B 0.0650 Utilities
BUI **** L/A, steady, defensive util, MOM $395.10M 0.1210 Utilities
ERH
**** L/A, steady, defensive util, MOM $129.12M 0.0784 Utilities
HTD **** BA/H, Steady div, util/defensive, MOM $955.39M 0.1380 Consistent div, 75% utilities, 50-70% equity
FT ***** L/H, steady, defensive util, EOM $186.98M 0.0320 Tactical Allocation, Util.
BME ***** L/H, Stable or growth, MOM $405.3M 0.2000 Health/biotech, S, growth, OW
THQ **** A/AA, stable nav/div, MOM $725.6M 0.1125 Healthcare, solid

DRIP Stocks and Funds
DIV 0.1407
VPGDX 0.0544
PEY 0.0547
PTY 0.1300
SPHD 0.1479
BDJ 0.0467
O 0.2260
LTC 0.1900
STAG 0.1182
UTG 0.1800
MAIN 0.2000
XSHD 0.1001
DHS 0.2000
OUSA 0.0780
BST 0.1500

The market looks poised to reward any type of quasi trade deal with China. As long as that is the case, it should continue to do well. Still, I don’t think President Trump is savvy as a politician so I’d look out below in the event that socialists regain power.

More about Gary Marché

I have a PhD in economics with emphasis in International Economics, Comparative Economic Systems, Open Economy Macroeconomics, Public Finance, and Policy Analysis and Program Evaluation. I am also a successful life-long investor . . . and hope to continue to be.