April 3, 2025: The “effect [of reciprocal tariffs] will be lower economic growth, higher inflation, higher unemployment, the destruction of wealth and a tax increase on American families,” economist Jason Furman, a former chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, recently explained. “It will deal a blow to the rules underlying the global trading system and further empower China.” Also, any efforts to shift manufacturing to the U.S. take a long time and cost a ton of money and Trump will be out of office long before that ever happens.

Thus, the Republican lies about a short-term disruption analogous to a kitchen remodel are very far from the the truth. Instead, it will be more like demolishing your house and replacing it with one that resembles the house in Christmas Story. You will need the smaller closets because clothing imports are also being taxed. It will replace your cars with just one very expensive 3000 SUX made by the UAW that earns a black spot in Consumer Reports for crash worthiness and reliability. Unfortunately, the tariffs won’t cause assault weapons to be replaced by Red Rider BB guns, otherwise I’d be somewhat more enthusiastic. In the meantime, I wouldn’t invest in the stock market. A global recession is not the appropriate circumstance for that.