April 3, 2025: The “effect [of reciprocal tariffs] will be lower economic growth, higher inflation, higher unemployment, the destruction of wealth and a tax increase on American families,” economist Jason Furman, a former chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, recently explained. “It will deal a blow to the rules underlying the global trading system and further empower China.” Also, any efforts to shift manufacturing to the U.S. take a long time and cost a ton of money and Trump will be out of office long before that ever happens.
Thus, the Republican lies about a short-term disruption analogous to a kitchen remodel are very far from the the truth. Instead, it will be more like demolishing your house and replacing it with one that resembles the house in Christmas Story. You will need the smaller closets because clothing imports are also being taxed. It will replace your cars with just one very expensive 3000 SUX made by the UAW that earns a black spot in Consumer Reports for crash worthiness and reliability. Unfortunately, the tariffs won’t cause assault weapons to be replaced by Red Rider BB guns, otherwise I’d be somewhat more enthusiastic. In the meantime, I wouldn’t invest in the stock market. A global recession is not the appropriate circumstance for that.
April 7: Park cash funds: BOXX, USFR, ICSH, JPST, and SGOV. An investment grade CLO that will lose little and has low credit risk is JAAA. It also pays decently. A stable value money market fund is SWVXX which is always worth $1.00, pays over 4%, and is completely tradable. CEF hedges for inflation include: CEF, GLD, and RLY. Good NOT investing!
April 21: If Trump succeeds in replacing the Fed Chair Powel with a crony who will lower the discount rate and increase the money supply, tariff induced inflation will become extremely bad. This will cause real assets that hold their value relative to devalued dollars to skyrocket in value. Holding funds such as CEFS, GLD and RLY or buying real estate would be the best ways to play that scenario.
April 28: By Hari Kishan
BENGALURU (Reuters) -Risks are high that the global economy will slip into recession this year, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll, in which scores said U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs have damaged business sentiment.
Just three months ago, the same group of economists covering nearly 50 economies had expected the global economy to grow at a strong, steady clip.
But Trump’s push to reshape world trade by imposing tariffs on all U.S. imports has sent shockwaves through financial markets, wiping out trillions of dollars in stock market value, and shaken investors’ confidence in U.S. assets, including the dollar, as a safe haven.
While Trump has suspended the heaviest tariffs imposed on almost all trading partners for a few months, a 10% blanket duty remains, as well as a 145% tariff on China, the United States’ largest trading partner. 
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“It’s hard enough for firms to think about July right now where they don’t know what the reciprocal tariffs are. Try and plan another year down the road. I mean, who knows what it looks like, let alone five years down the road,” said James Rossiter, head of global macro strategy at TD Securities.
