June 29: Not much has changed during the month. Expect uncertainty and pessimism regarding Fed tightening and the likely outcome along with geopolitical fatigue to continue dominating the markets. Markets have been down hard during 17 weeks this year and moderately positive in only 8 weeks. Like all trends, it will run out eventually. In… Continue reading June Stock and Fund Picks
Category: Current State of the Economy
May Stock and Fund Picks
May 26, 2022: This week appears to be one of an expected series of short-run rallies within a longer-run downtrend of negative market sentiment. Negative sentiment caused by Fed tightening and liquidity drain, inflation, and the war in Ukraine appear likely to remain for a while. That said, short-run rallies often suggest an approaching bottom.… Continue reading May Stock and Fund Picks
April Stock and Fund Picks
April 14: Let’s hope inflation is nearing its zenith and will return to earth in the near future. The “Poo-tin” appears to be attempting a regroup and retry with a smaller objective in mind. Let’s hope that fails too. British intelligence seems to imply only a 50-50 chance against the more motivated but outnumbered Ukrainians.… Continue reading April Stock and Fund Picks
March Stock and Fund Picks
March 29: Looks like Joe Biden intends for V. Putin to stay in power indefinitely. This will help drag out the Ukrainian war disaster. Of course, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy still needs to acquire more leverage (i.e., more Russian body bags) for effective negotiations with Putin. All this will take time. For the time being, the… Continue reading March Stock and Fund Picks
Stocks/Funds and State of the Economy
February 16: State of the Economy Two things drive long-run interest rates: Inflation and economic growth. Some inflation is on the supply-side and those bottle-necks should continue to abate. Inflation due to too much consumer demand can be effected by the Fed through monetary tightening and raising short-term interest rates (the discount rate). But, by… Continue reading Stocks/Funds and State of the Economy
January Stock and Fund Picks
January 20: Sooner or later all good things, even overdue pull backs and corrections, must come to an end. By now those trading on the emotion of “fear” about alleged interest rate increases will have capitulated and sold near the bottom. Naturally, they will buy back in near a top. Then they will vote for… Continue reading January Stock and Fund Picks
December Stock and Fund Picks
December 21: Winter is now here. More importantly, it appears more and more like an inflection point in the stock markets. The underlying economy is strong and the housing market is even better. Above trend growth is projected into next year and even with the end of the Fed taper and raising short-term rates 3… Continue reading December Stock and Fund Picks
November Stock and Fund Picks
November 21: As long as interest rates remain low and the economy is fundamentally sound and growing, nothing of note is likely to cause overly significant market instability. Because equity values are generally stretched, individual stocks and sector oriented funds are the best bet. That said, consider the following stocks for growth: WIRE, DQ, PDCE,… Continue reading November Stock and Fund Picks
October Stock and Fund Picks
October 14: The debt ceiling problem is still a worry while Covid is becoming less so. The fear and greed index is also still in the fear range and so I don’t know for sure if the end of September slump is completely over. That said, the fundamental economy is still in a supply-constrained growth… Continue reading October Stock and Fund Picks
September Stock and Fund Picks
September 12: There are market headwinds building such as slowing economic growth and earnings, Fed tapering, Delta variant wild card effects on jobs and the labor market, and school policy adjustments affecting working parents that suggest a re-assessment of future earning flows. A downward revision in future earnings over the next two years will lead… Continue reading September Stock and Fund Picks