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December 2022 Stock and Fund Picks

December 28: The best guess as to how far along the Fed is toward raising the Federal Funds Rate is that it is about 70% complete. The most vulnerable area is equities and associated company earnings, all of which appear to have an average of about 10-20 percent more to fall. If you are throwing darts to pick equities, then I'd build up some cash and wait about 6 months or so to start buying. One upside is the equity…

Activist Monetary Policy Conundrum

Recently, many economic and FED commentators point out that if we have a recession we will need a tighter FED balance sheet and higher interest rates in order to fight the recession using stimulative monetary policy.  At the same time, others have pointed out that if interest rates get to high it will cause a recession.  This leaves us with a logical conflict.  If the FED actively manages the economy to have higher short-term interest rates and thereby be in…

The Border Adjustment Tax (BAT) is really GREAT!

Economists seem less worried about it for several reasons.  First, other countries we trade with use the same thing against us.  Second, a BAT is not a trade restriction such as a tariff or quota that the World Trade Organization (WTO) can overturn as being in violation of a previous trade agreement.  Third, a BAT is not a trade export subsidy that would lead the WTO to approve countervailing duties so as to offset it.  Last and most important, a BAT does not effect retailers in such a negative way as is being…