Sept. 19: What an opportunity! This is the first election we can choose a convicted felon who spews nothing but hate and lies. Moreover, his only coherent economic policy of across-the-board tariffs will make us collectively worse off. Empirical evidence demonstrates that import tariffs, another type of sales tax, are 100% passed on to consumers… Continue reading September 2024 Stock and Fund Picks
Category: Economic Policy
July 2024 Stock and Fund Picks
July 15, 2024: Projections for a slowly declining inflation rate appears to be on track and by the beginning of 2025 the Fed’s inflation target of 2% may become more or less realized. The mean’s the Fed chose to reduce inflation has involved an attempt to slow aggregate demand growth relative to that of aggregate… Continue reading July 2024 Stock and Fund Picks
May 2024 Stock and Fund Picks
May 9, 2024: Aggregate demand management by the Fed hasn’t slowed its biggest aspect, Consumer Demand, all that much. Consumers running out of pandemic savings and running up too much debt may become the more predominant effect. By contrast, aggregate supply has taken care of itself. That said, the higher interest rates have slowed growth… Continue reading May 2024 Stock and Fund Picks
March 2024 Stock and Fund Picks
March 21: Not exactly surprising that the Fed’s dot plots indicate 3 rate cuts this year. The now dovish sounding Fed has no choice but to cut rates. It claims it also wants to slow its balance sheet run off which is a more complicated process than what it might seem. Nevertheless, slowing its balance… Continue reading March 2024 Stock and Fund Picks
February 2024 Stock and Fund Picks
February 5: The Fed is between a rock and a hard place. It’s main monetary aggregate M2 has come down from its peak from about a year ago only 2.3%. This is very little and has come about from just letting bonds expire and role off the Feds balance sheet, and then letting the Treasury… Continue reading February 2024 Stock and Fund Picks
November Stock and Fund Picks
November 7. 2023: The Fed may have paused its direct attack on the economy. The supply-side problems caused by the pandemic have cured themselves and only the money supply needed to be reduced. Selling off the Feds balance sheet would have done that and probably not have effected the economy as negatively. Moreover, long-term rates… Continue reading November Stock and Fund Picks
April 2023 Stock and Fund Picks
April 27: The Fed has achieved about one-half of its inflation fighting goal as the inflation rate has dropped from over 8% to around 5% today. Another 3% drop and it hits it’s 2% inflation rate target. Of course, the first 3% inflation decrease will be the easiest. The pandemic supply-side constraints have abated to… Continue reading April 2023 Stock and Fund Picks
March 2023 Stock and Fund Picks
March 12: In the 1930s bank runs occurred because a bank only had to keep a fraction of its total checking account deposits on hand for cash withdrawals and because bank deposits were not insured by the FDIC. Consequently, depositors could panic and try, in mass, to withdraw their funds up to the point the… Continue reading March 2023 Stock and Fund Picks
February Stock and Fund Picks
February 1, 2023: January was great, but . . . “Typically, as January goes so does the year.” Such is the rule of thumb and common belief. Stock prices went up while earnings and earnings expectations are going in the opposite direction. P/E ratios are going up as a consequence. So for how long can… Continue reading February Stock and Fund Picks
December 2022 Stock and Fund Picks
December 28: The best guess as to how far along the Fed is toward raising the Federal Funds Rate is that it is about 70% complete. The most vulnerable area is equities and associated company earnings, all of which appear to have an average of about 10-20 percent more to fall. If you are throwing… Continue reading December 2022 Stock and Fund Picks