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Stock Market Fluctuations

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May 2023 Stock and Fund Picks

May 30, 2023: Assuming the debt ceiling FUBAR fades into the rearview mirror, the Treasury will have to rebuild the cash reserves it exhausted during the long period of "special measures." This cash rebuilding process involves bond sales which will also be good for inflation because it will compete for excess money in the economy. Unfortunately, it will also and create an alternative to buying stocks for a time. During the second half of this year the stock market should…

October Stock and Fund Picks

October 20: The status quo seems like endless doom and gloom. Yet, we know with certainty that bear markets always end. Moreover, it's end will come as a surprise to most. One possible scenario is that inflation continues to abate and the Fed pivots and announces an end to large rate hikes. Suddenly, earnings growth and job creation are enough to send the stock market soaring. Thus, you don't want to sell. On the other hand, killing inflation requires reducing…

September Stock and Fund Picks

September 12: There are market headwinds building such as slowing economic growth and earnings, Fed tapering, Delta variant wild card effects on jobs and the labor market, and school policy adjustments affecting working parents that suggest a re-assessment of future earning flows. A downward revision in future earnings over the next two years will lead a frothy market to reset to a lower level. Typically, such resets are overdone in the short-run and lead to market buying opportunities. Prior to…

November Stock and Fund Picks

This month I am providing you the opportunity to invest in what I do: Use CEFs and ETFs as a source of dividend income and for capital appreciation. I tend to get between 10% to 15% per year in capital appreciation plus about 8% to 9% in dividend income. The simplest and most consistent method for both is to buy at a discounted price relative to a funds net asset value (NAV) and wait for it to appreciate. This also…

June Stock and Fund Picks

As I indicated previously, the market raced ahead only to pull-back and re-price. The second wave increase in the rate of Covid-19 infections that resulted from re-opening the economy was the main cause of the pull-back. I know people are weary of playing it safe but it now seems as if they are walking around inside the boxing ring with their hands down while expecting to not get punched in the face. Very silly indeed! So, with the pull back…