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Stocks of the Week

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January Stock and Fund Picks

State of the Economy: As growth slow and AI continues to grow, the labor market slowly deteriorates as the "Labor Market Trends Index" shows: The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) Declined in December Latest Press Release Updated: Monday, January 12, 2026 The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) declined in December to 104.27, from a downwardly revised 104.64 in November. The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for payroll employment. When the Index increases, employment is likely…

December Stock and Fund Picks

Another in a long line of Presidential disasters brought on by ignorance and incompetence continues to be a plaque on the markets. Obama, as you might remember, was leading us into a recession during his second term by overregulating everything in sight. I'm sure his intentions were good but he kept increasing costs and slowing economic growth anyway. Trump is no different. His tariffs lead to both an economic slowdown and inflation. This is commonly referred to as a stagflationary…

November Stock and Fund Picks

November 20, 2025: We've completed our move to another state and I should be back to updating this blog more regularly as a consequence. As we slowly slide into a more distinctive stagflationary scenario resulting from an internal supply-side shock caused by increased tariffs, the Fed is increasingly uncertain as to whether it should focus on the deteriorating economy through interest rate cuts, or the increasing inflationary outlook through interest rate increases. Recently, it has focused on the deteriorating economy…

June Stock and Fund Picks

June 7: There are currently three areas of relative value for investing. Only two of them are relatively safe from tariff risks. These two are municipal bonds and gold. Municipal bonds have been sold off sufficiently that many CEFs sell at discounted values and provide fairly high interest rates. The after tax equivalent yield is obtained by dividing 1 - your marginal tax rate into the nominal yield. Obviously, the higher your marginal tax bracket the higher the after tax…

January 2025 Stock and Fund Picks

January 30: Earnings growth is continuing to keep P/E ratios in check. Luckily high (P) valuations haven't eliminated all areas of relative value. Looking at stocks and funds outside of our borders is one place were value remains. Small-cap stocks is another. CEFs offering value and income are in the Agency MBS space and include BKT and PGZ, for example. The FED is on hold with interest rate cuts because of policy uncertainty. The biggest area of policy uncertainty involves…

November Stock and Fund Picks

Socio-Economic Aspects of Election History: I was mortified when Richard Nixon was voted back into his second presidential term. But then I realized that most people were afraid of communism's spread and wanted protection from it. Moreover, those who could perceive what Watergate would become were very much in the minority. There are some parallels to Trump's recent election victory. Many blue-collar workers have lost jobs to competition from international trade over the last 80 years or so because every…

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