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Stocks of the Week

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August Stock and Fund Picks

August 21, 2020 Growth is slowing again, mainly due to non-maskers and covid-19 spikes. This dooms Pres. Trumps chances of re-election. Get ready for a well-meaning liberal President Biden who will enact policies that will produce exactly the opposite effects intended. We must accept the fact that we will never have a president that understands markets or economics and therefore will never enact policies that actually achieve their goals. For example, you might remember Obama's aim to increase government hiring,…

July Stock and Fund Picks

Simultaneous supply and demand side shocks continue to hinder the economy. Add to that, idiots and morons of the "Free DUMB" non face maskers clan and you get virus spikes that threaten everything from the economic recovery to the stock market and even college sports. The recovery has now hit a calm in which there is no wind and our portfolio ships are merely existing. Unless, of course like me you are an income investor holding stocks like O, and…

June Stock and Fund Picks

As I indicated previously, the market raced ahead only to pull-back and re-price. The second wave increase in the rate of Covid-19 infections that resulted from re-opening the economy was the main cause of the pull-back. I know people are weary of playing it safe but it now seems as if they are walking around inside the boxing ring with their hands down while expecting to not get punched in the face. Very silly indeed! So, with the pull back…

May Stock and Fund Picks

When, as I pointed out earlier, the market gets ahead of the economies fundamentals, it will sell-off or re-price. This is the time to put money to work, but very slowly and carefully. Top growth stocks to look at include: ASX, DBX, DOYU, NPTN, EXPI, and BJ. Top dividend growth stocks are: MMLP, VIRT, DCP, ODP, RGP, MED, GSK, and ALEX. Top ETFs are QQQ, IWY, XNTK. If you want solid income try to buy DFP below $23.05. If you…

April Stock and Fund Picks

Stay the course: Stay in cash and do not buy any new stocks or funds at this time. If I don't recommend you deploy capital then I can't be accused of giving you overly risky or just plain bad advise. If you already have a dividend reinvestment portfolio then just hold it and let it buy up shares at cheaper prices. For those with a CEF income portfolio, just hold it (of course, any MLP funds are riskier during the…

March 2020 State of the Markets

Last week of February priced in only a part of the negative supply-side shock of the Corona virus outbreak. When theme parks and public events such as the Olympics are either under consideration for cancelation or being canceled at an accelerating rate, people are staying home rather than going out such as in Italy and France or tourism falls to zero in some geographic regions, things are looking pretty bad. The virus tends to incubate within an infected person for…

February Stock and Fund Picks

All business cycle monitoring sites from Seeking Alpha indicate an ongoing expansion that is simply slowing down due to a lack of private sector investment, industrial production, and anti-supply-side protectionist trade policies. Instead of cyclical indicators only, I prefer to also look at the misery index as an indicator of a potential recession. The misery index is the positive or direct relationship between the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. This relationship replaces the old and no-longer in existence Phillips…

January 2020 Stock and Fund Picks

All policies have negative consequences. The hope is that positive consequences will outweigh those that are negative. For example, in the late 1990s Pres. Clinton placed recruitment restrictions on the CIA that caused its staff to shrink by half. Clinton also cut CIA and military funding substantially. The 9/11 terrorist attacks followed. Bill Clinton also replaced regulatory authority under Glass-Steagall that gave the SEC oversight of investment derivatives, like those of the subprime mortgage crises, with the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act that…

December Stock and Fund Picks

Isolationism and increasing inefficiency that results will continue to push output down. Already it has reduced investment, which in turn reduces productivity growth, as well as both exports and imports which account for about 40 - 45% of our economy. Let me illustrate how this works. Two nearby islands routinely trade with each other because island 1 has resources and technology better suited for making clothes while island 2 is more suited to making food. Each islands specializes by producing…

November Stock and Fund Picks

Beware the unemployment rate. It went down during the Obama administration because people dropped out of the labor force, not because job growth was strong. To illustrate, assume 100 people are in the labor force (working or looking for work and unemployed, non-institutionalized, and greater than 16 years of age). Assume 5 people are unemployed (actively searching for a job but don't yet have one) which makes the unemployment rate 5% = 5/100. Now assume that 2 people become discouraged…

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