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April 2017 Stock Picks and Market Strategy

Trading range, consolidation, pull-back to 200 day support line are all possibilities to look forward to in the near term. The market tends toward risk-on with good news about fundamentals such as the ADP hiring report this Wednesday. By contrast, political uncertainty "noise" has a strong, or even stronger, negative effect pushing investors into the risk-off mode very quickly. Strategy: Buy on any strong or significant dips. The long-run upward trend continues to dominate. Thus, you can ride out any…

March 2017 Stock Pick Performance

March Stock Picks the market again . . . just like in February! Base stocks were minus 1.66% for the month but outperformed the Dow, which was down 2.14%. The S & P 500 was down 1.39% and the NASDAQ was up 0.13% for the month of March. Nothing stellar here as the Trump bump winds down and stocks move into a trading range that is dependent on earnings. What was stellar were the FREE monthly stock picks that beat…

Flow Theory of the Stock Market

Flow theory is about the flow of money into and out of stocks, economic sectors, and the overall stock market. I am going to focus on the overall stock market. Flows into and out of the stock market occur for different reasons in the longer-run period (greater than 1 or 2 years) versus the shorter-run period (less than 1 or 2 years). In the long-run money flows depend on: 1. Demographic trends 2. Long-run economic growth. 3. International portfolio capital…

Weekly Stock Picks for March 2017

Week 1 The market remains kind. I continue to buy the inverse beta stock TZA when the market is up and sell when the market is down, but I always hold a minimum of 3% in my portfolio. Along with potential profits from TZA, I have increased cash holdings in case a market correction serves up buying opportunities. For the week of March 6 - 10, I recommend taking a look at some of the stocks I intend to buy:…

Economics Textbooks

Here are some links to my two economics textbooks published by Kendall Hunt. https://he.kendallhunt.com/product/introduction-macroeconomics-0 Introduction to Macroeconomics https://he.kendallhunt.com/product/introduction-microeconomics-0 Introduction to Microeconomics Both texts are available in the cheaper e-book format and will provide a good reference for economic theory. Also, both texts are written at the principles or introductory level and do not presuppose any prior economic knowledge. Of course if you really want to have your political economy socks blown off you can read my novel Bob the Bubble…

February 2017 Stock Pick Performance

All recommended base stocks had positive gains during the month of February. Data is in in monthly and annualized percentage changes. For comparison, . . . . . . . . . % change February . . . (% change Annualized) DOW 30 . . . . . . . . . 4.63% . . . . . . . . . .(55.58%) S & P 500 . . . . . . . .3.69% . . . . .…

The Border Adjustment Tax (BAT) is really GREAT!

Economists seem less worried about it for several reasons.  First, other countries we trade with use the same thing against us.  Second, a BAT is not a trade restriction such as a tariff or quota that the World Trade Organization (WTO) can overturn as being in violation of a previous trade agreement.  Third, a BAT is not a trade export subsidy that would lead the WTO to approve countervailing duties so as to offset it.  Last and most important, a BAT does not effect retailers in such a negative way as is being…

What about the Current Economy and Markets?

The supply or production side of the economy driven by individual and business interests was for about eight years due to anti-business and anti-private sector policies.  The rationale for these policies was a socialist agenda coupled with a lack of understanding of how a market based economy (i.e., capitalism) works.  The result was slow and declining rates of economic growth on the supply-side of the economy because business expectations for a payoff to investment were lacking.  For example, recent data…

Discover February’s Weekly Top Stock Picks — All Free

Building a stock portfolio is like putting together a really great sled dog team. Many investors tend to take profits from their good stocks (i.e., let their good dogs go) and keep their poorly performing stocks (i.e., their sick dogs) which means they will get nowhere. That said, if a stock gets too rich (a dog is too fat to run anymore) then sell it and hook up a new dog that is ready to run. My own stock portfolio…

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Look Out Below!

Most stock investors worry about sudden sell-offs and plunging stock prices. Here are some strategies that can reduce your worries. 1. The simplest strategy is to have a long-run time horizon that allows you to ignore short-run fluctuations in financial asset prices. Companies always move things and if you have invested in good ones, short-run downturns in the stock market are best ignored. 2. Buy a mutual fund or other fund that lags market turning points, especially the downward turning points. I…