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July Stock and Fund Picks

July 27: The state of the economy is that it appears that only the end of inflation, Fed tightening, or the war in Ukraine will kick things into a positive direction. As it is, the leading economic indicators (LEI) have fallen for four months in a row while the coincident and lagging indicators still remain positive. Luckily, LEI is less accurate at predicating a recession than an economic recovery. On the other hand, the IMF now appears to fear the…

June Stock and Fund Picks

June 29: Not much has changed during the month. Expect uncertainty and pessimism regarding Fed tightening and the likely outcome along with geopolitical fatigue to continue dominating the markets. Markets have been down hard during 17 weeks this year and moderately positive in only 8 weeks. Like all trends, it will run out eventually. In fact, once all negativity is price in any good news will start a recovery that could be quite strong. Given this, some growth oriented stocks…

May Stock and Fund Picks

May 26, 2022: This week appears to be one of an expected series of short-run rallies within a longer-run downtrend of negative market sentiment. Negative sentiment caused by Fed tightening and liquidity drain, inflation, and the war in Ukraine appear likely to remain for a while. That said, short-run rallies often suggest an approaching bottom. There are a few stocks and funds to recommend. For growth, consider the following list of Zack's number 1's (good for about the next 3…

April Stock and Fund Picks

April 14: Let's hope inflation is nearing its zenith and will return to earth in the near future. The "Poo-tin" appears to be attempting a regroup and retry with a smaller objective in mind. Let's hope that fails too. British intelligence seems to imply only a 50-50 chance against the more motivated but outnumbered Ukrainians. I am providing you with a list of my most preferred monthly paying CEFs. hanks to the market slump over the previous 2 quarters, most…

March Stock and Fund Picks

March 29: Looks like Joe Biden intends for V. Putin to stay in power indefinitely. This will help drag out the Ukrainian war disaster. Of course, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy still needs to acquire more leverage (i.e., more Russian body bags) for effective negotiations with Putin. All this will take time. For the time being, the only thing to do is cash in on the opportunity to buy stocks at lower prices. Some growth stocks to consider are: AMR, TH, JWN,…

Stocks/Funds and State of the Economy

February 16: State of the Economy Two things drive long-run interest rates: Inflation and economic growth. Some inflation is on the supply-side and those bottle-necks should continue to abate. Inflation due to too much consumer demand can be effected by the Fed through monetary tightening and raising short-term interest rates (the discount rate). But, by tightening, the Fed will increase borrowing costs for some small businesses and industries and worsen the supply-side problem as well. Still, the broadest effects will…

January Stock and Fund Picks

January 20: Sooner or later all good things, even overdue pull backs and corrections, must come to an end. By now those trading on the emotion of "fear" about alleged interest rate increases will have capitulated and sold near the bottom. Naturally, they will buy back in near a top. Then they will vote for Bernie Sanders. For the rest of us, its time to move on. Stocks to consider at this point in time are: LMB, TSM, PLAB, ACMR,…

December Stock and Fund Picks

December 21: Winter is now here. More importantly, it appears more and more like an inflection point in the stock markets. The underlying economy is strong and the housing market is even better. Above trend growth is projected into next year and even with the end of the Fed taper and raising short-term rates 3 times, real-interest rates will remain negative. Negative real rates do not portend a recession. The Omicron variant is going to infect everyone, but those who…

November Stock and Fund Picks

November 21: As long as interest rates remain low and the economy is fundamentally sound and growing, nothing of note is likely to cause overly significant market instability. Because equity values are generally stretched, individual stocks and sector oriented funds are the best bet. That said, consider the following stocks for growth: WIRE, DQ, PDCE, BLDR, DFIN, and MC. For dividends and growth: CTRA, GLP, HESM, NEWT, PSX, and XOM. The hottest sector oriented funds over the last 3 months…

October Stock and Fund Picks

October 14: The debt ceiling problem is still a worry while Covid is becoming less so. The fear and greed index is also still in the fear range and so I don't know for sure if the end of September slump is completely over. That said, the fundamental economy is still in a supply-constrained growth cycle and earnings season has just kicked off. Both of these last two are positives for the stock market. As such, I'll cautiously suggest some…