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May Stock and Fund Picks

When, as I pointed out earlier, the market gets ahead of the economies fundamentals, it will sell-off or re-price. This is the time to put money to work, but very slowly and carefully. Top growth stocks to look at include: ASX, DBX, DOYU, NPTN, EXPI, and BJ. Top dividend growth stocks are: MMLP, VIRT, DCP, ODP, RGP, MED, GSK, and ALEX. Top ETFs are QQQ, IWY, XNTK. If you want solid income try to buy DFP below $23.05. If you…

April Stock and Fund Picks

Stay the course: Stay in cash and do not buy any new stocks or funds at this time. If I don't recommend you deploy capital then I can't be accused of giving you overly risky or just plain bad advise. If you already have a dividend reinvestment portfolio then just hold it and let it buy up shares at cheaper prices. For those with a CEF income portfolio, just hold it (of course, any MLP funds are riskier during the…

March 2020 State of the Markets

Last week of February priced in only a part of the negative supply-side shock of the Corona virus outbreak. When theme parks and public events such as the Olympics are either under consideration for cancelation or being canceled at an accelerating rate, people are staying home rather than going out such as in Italy and France or tourism falls to zero in some geographic regions, things are looking pretty bad. The virus tends to incubate within an infected person for…

February Stock and Fund Picks

All business cycle monitoring sites from Seeking Alpha indicate an ongoing expansion that is simply slowing down due to a lack of private sector investment, industrial production, and anti-supply-side protectionist trade policies. Instead of cyclical indicators only, I prefer to also look at the misery index as an indicator of a potential recession. The misery index is the positive or direct relationship between the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. This relationship replaces the old and no-longer in existence Phillips…

January 2020 Stock and Fund Picks

All policies have negative consequences. The hope is that positive consequences will outweigh those that are negative. For example, in the late 1990s Pres. Clinton placed recruitment restrictions on the CIA that caused its staff to shrink by half. Clinton also cut CIA and military funding substantially. The 9/11 terrorist attacks followed. Bill Clinton also replaced regulatory authority under Glass-Steagall that gave the SEC oversight of investment derivatives, like those of the subprime mortgage crises, with the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act that…

December Stock and Fund Picks

Isolationism and increasing inefficiency that results will continue to push output down. Already it has reduced investment, which in turn reduces productivity growth, as well as both exports and imports which account for about 40 - 45% of our economy. Let me illustrate how this works. Two nearby islands routinely trade with each other because island 1 has resources and technology better suited for making clothes while island 2 is more suited to making food. Each islands specializes by producing…

November Stock and Fund Picks

Beware the unemployment rate. It went down during the Obama administration because people dropped out of the labor force, not because job growth was strong. To illustrate, assume 100 people are in the labor force (working or looking for work and unemployed, non-institutionalized, and greater than 16 years of age). Assume 5 people are unemployed (actively searching for a job but don't yet have one) which makes the unemployment rate 5% = 5/100. Now assume that 2 people become discouraged…

October Stock and Fund Picks

The last quarter appears to hinge on whether economist's negative expectations of an economy that has slowed from 3% to 2% growth because of tariff policies will continue to slow and then fall into a recession. For the previous 2 quarters negative earnings estimates have been below actual results. That this quarters earnings will continue to beat estimates is key. For those wanting to risk the biscuit, the best growth stocks to bet on are: MTZ, PRFT, RCII, RH, SKX,…

September Stock and Fund Picks

The new dovish Fed posture requires some adjustment among income funds in my suggested portfolio of monthly paying stocks and funds (the last one is from the August post). REITS and bond funs with longer duration tend to outperform when short rates are lowered. Floating rate funds, on the other hand, have performed worse. Also, MLPs have continued to flounder. Adjust your weighting accordingly. New income funds added to the portfolio are: GBAB (in the build America bonds category), FT…

August Stock and Fund Picks

Week 1 -2 (Aug. 1 - 15): There are changes to my personal portfolio from July. Specifically, I'm dropping EPR and CCMNX and adding PHD and BSL. These changes are now reflected in the updated portfolio. Most stock analysts are weak at Open Economy Macroeconomics and tend to look only at the initial static effect on GDP from increased tariffs on China announced for Sept. 1st. This abstract view underestimates the vastness of the negative macroeconomic consequences of Trump's tariffs.…