July 24: Election cycle theory suggests that the negative effects of Trump’s tariff policy will not fully set in until the beginning of next year. Thus, we can expect that the stock market will remain on relatively steady footing until then. On the other hand, Trump’s fight with Fed chair Powell has some very negative… Continue reading July 2025 Stock and Fund Picks
Category: Current State of the Economy
June Stock and Fund Picks
June 7: There are currently three areas of relative value for investing. Only two of them are relatively safe from tariff risks. These two are municipal bonds and gold. Municipal bonds have been sold off sufficiently that many CEFs sell at discounted values and provide fairly high interest rates. The after tax equivalent yield is… Continue reading June Stock and Fund Picks
May Stock and Fund Picks
May 30, 2025: Trump only offers bad things for our economy. Everyone knows, since the last half of Trump’s first administration, that tariffs are his only policy. Moreover, tariffs only do harm. Thus, the more recent announcements of new tariffs have caused the stock market to plunge. Trump then chickens out and announces the tariffs… Continue reading May Stock and Fund Picks
April 2025 Stock and Fund Picks
April 3, 2025: The “effect [of reciprocal tariffs] will be lower economic growth, higher inflation, higher unemployment, the destruction of wealth and a tax increase on American families,” economist Jason Furman, a former chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, recently explained. “It will deal a blow to the rules underlying the global trading… Continue reading April 2025 Stock and Fund Picks
March 2025 Stock and Fund Picks
March 10: We are very definitely headed into a tariff induced recession characterized by stagflation. Taxes (what tariffs are) cannot result in prosperity. Instead, they will cause reduced economic activity in all trade related industries. Moreover, retaliatory tariffs will reduce our exports and increase unemployment in our more efficient exporting industries. The higher tariffs on… Continue reading March 2025 Stock and Fund Picks
January 2025 Stock and Fund Picks
January 30: Earnings growth is continuing to keep P/E ratios in check. Luckily high (P) valuations haven’t eliminated all areas of relative value. Looking at stocks and funds outside of our borders is one place were value remains. Small-cap stocks is another. CEFs offering value and income are in the Agency MBS space and include… Continue reading January 2025 Stock and Fund Picks
November Stock and Fund Picks
Socio-Economic Aspects of Election History: I was mortified when Richard Nixon was voted back into his second presidential term. But then I realized that most people were afraid of communism’s spread and wanted protection from it. Moreover, those who could perceive what Watergate would become were very much in the minority. There are some parallels… Continue reading November Stock and Fund Picks
July 2024 Stock and Fund Picks
July 15, 2024: Projections for a slowly declining inflation rate appears to be on track and by the beginning of 2025 the Fed’s inflation target of 2% may become more or less realized. The mean’s the Fed chose to reduce inflation has involved an attempt to slow aggregate demand growth relative to that of aggregate… Continue reading July 2024 Stock and Fund Picks
May 2024 Stock and Fund Picks
May 9, 2024: Aggregate demand management by the Fed hasn’t slowed its biggest aspect, Consumer Demand, all that much. Consumers running out of pandemic savings and running up too much debt may become the more predominant effect. By contrast, aggregate supply has taken care of itself. That said, the higher interest rates have slowed growth… Continue reading May 2024 Stock and Fund Picks
March 2024 Stock and Fund Picks
March 21: Not exactly surprising that the Fed’s dot plots indicate 3 rate cuts this year. The now dovish sounding Fed has no choice but to cut rates. It claims it also wants to slow its balance sheet run off which is a more complicated process than what it might seem. Nevertheless, slowing its balance… Continue reading March 2024 Stock and Fund Picks