January 30: Earnings growth is continuing to keep P/E ratios in check. Luckily high (P) valuations haven’t eliminated all areas of relative value. Looking at stocks and funds outside of our borders is one place were value remains. Small-cap stocks is another. CEFs offering value and income are in the Agency MBS space and include… Continue reading January 2025 Stock and Fund Picks
Category: Current State of the Economy
November Stock and Fund Picks
Socio-Economic Aspects of Election History: I was mortified when Richard Nixon was voted back into his second presidential term. But then I realized that most people were afraid of communism’s spread and wanted protection from it. Moreover, those who could perceive what Watergate would become were very much in the minority. There are some parallels… Continue reading November Stock and Fund Picks
July 2024 Stock and Fund Picks
July 15, 2024: Projections for a slowly declining inflation rate appears to be on track and by the beginning of 2025 the Fed’s inflation target of 2% may become more or less realized. The mean’s the Fed chose to reduce inflation has involved an attempt to slow aggregate demand growth relative to that of aggregate… Continue reading July 2024 Stock and Fund Picks
May 2024 Stock and Fund Picks
May 9, 2024: Aggregate demand management by the Fed hasn’t slowed its biggest aspect, Consumer Demand, all that much. Consumers running out of pandemic savings and running up too much debt may become the more predominant effect. By contrast, aggregate supply has taken care of itself. That said, the higher interest rates have slowed growth… Continue reading May 2024 Stock and Fund Picks
March 2024 Stock and Fund Picks
March 21: Not exactly surprising that the Fed’s dot plots indicate 3 rate cuts this year. The now dovish sounding Fed has no choice but to cut rates. It claims it also wants to slow its balance sheet run off which is a more complicated process than what it might seem. Nevertheless, slowing its balance… Continue reading March 2024 Stock and Fund Picks
February 2024 Stock and Fund Picks
February 5: The Fed is between a rock and a hard place. It’s main monetary aggregate M2 has come down from its peak from about a year ago only 2.3%. This is very little and has come about from just letting bonds expire and role off the Feds balance sheet, and then letting the Treasury… Continue reading February 2024 Stock and Fund Picks
November Stock and Fund Picks
November 7. 2023: The Fed may have paused its direct attack on the economy. The supply-side problems caused by the pandemic have cured themselves and only the money supply needed to be reduced. Selling off the Feds balance sheet would have done that and probably not have effected the economy as negatively. Moreover, long-term rates… Continue reading November Stock and Fund Picks
September Stock and Fund Picks
Sept. 29, 2023: Let’s say I am the Fed and I want to protect the markets, consumers, and citizens from reality. So, I hide a T-Rex debt monster behind a curtain called the Fed’s balance sheet. I monetize or “feed” the T-Rex over-time by buying up newly issued IRS debt, and thereby increasing my balance… Continue reading September Stock and Fund Picks
August Stock and Fund Picks
August 14: In business cycle parlance, we are coming down from a peak towards a recessionary trough and appear to be nearly there. This trough is not likely to be an actual recession though as the economy is generally still too strong for that. Thus, a “soft landing” has become a common expectation. The more… Continue reading August Stock and Fund Picks
June Stock and Fund Picks
June 28, 2023: Because the Fed intends to carefully proceed by looking at downside (recession) risks versus inflationary risks, we can expect them to try to avoid causing a recession. But, recent strong economic activity in areas such as capital goods manufacturing, housing construction, strong service sector and a still fairly resilient labor market mean… Continue reading June Stock and Fund Picks