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November Stock and Fund Picks

Socio-Economic Aspects of Election History: I was mortified when Richard Nixon was voted back into his second presidential term. But then I realized that most people were afraid of communism's spread and wanted protection from it. Moreover, those who could perceive what Watergate would become were very much in the minority. There are some parallels to Trump's recent election victory. Many blue-collar workers have lost jobs to competition from international trade over the last 80 years or so because every…

September 2024 Stock and Fund Picks

Sept. 19: What an opportunity! This is the first election we can choose a convicted felon who spews nothing but hate and lies. Moreover, his only coherent economic policy of across-the-board tariffs will make us collectively worse off. Empirical evidence demonstrates that import tariffs, another type of sales tax, are 100% passed on to consumers through higher import prices. What are the costs and benefits you ask? Empirical evidence shows that, on average, each job protected costs consumers at least…

May 2024 Stock and Fund Picks

May 9, 2024: Aggregate demand management by the Fed hasn't slowed its biggest aspect, Consumer Demand, all that much. Consumers running out of pandemic savings and running up too much debt may become the more predominant effect. By contrast, aggregate supply has taken care of itself. That said, the higher interest rates have slowed growth more among the higher leveraged smaller firms, leading the smaller firm indexes to lag until just recently. Reducing aggregate demand growth through higher interest rates…

March 2023 Stock and Fund Picks

March 12: In the 1930s bank runs occurred because a bank only had to keep a fraction of its total checking account deposits on hand for cash withdrawals and because bank deposits were not insured by the FDIC. Consequently, depositors could panic and try, in mass, to withdraw their funds up to the point the bank had no more vault cash or teller cash. Now most banks and credit union deposits are insured. Consequently, bank runs decreased dramatically because depositors…