Week 1/2 (March 1 -9):
Markets are beginning to adapt to real growth less the uncertainty of trade-war possibilities. The growth and earnings side are great while the trade-war issue will probably remain for some time before hopefully fading in importance. With that I’ll recommend some stocks and funds to consider adding to your portfolio. The Gary Cohn resignation may generate nothing more than a short-run buying opportunity. I sympathize with Gary Cohn. He is a free-trader, as am I. Placing taxes on the seller side if any market doesn’t do anything to increase market activity or economic growth. Basically, the Trump administration’s efforts to deal with China appear crude. Not that China has ever played fair with trade and deserves a whack on the snout at the very least. On the other hand, I can’t believe that if we can identify the source of a nuclear bomb from its radiation signature that we cannot identify or differentiate Chinese steel as well. If we can, there is no need for the clumsy broad tariff approach that harms our allies more than they do China.
Consider the following stocks for your portfolios: MT (steel), KELYA (staffing), PKG (packaging), AEL (life insurance), NTGR (computer networking), OZM (financial investment management). ETFs to consider include: FTXL, FBT, PSI, ITA, IAT, XLY, and KBWB. I’d also recommend SOXX if you still don’t have it and KRE (although it is in the base stock portfolio already). If you’re into mutual funds take a look at UGPIX, BFOCX, TEPIX, FSELX, and BGSAX. These stocks, ETFs, and mutual funds will give you good diversification and long-run growth, unless of course a trade-war breaks out. Good Investing and good luck!
Week 2/3 (March 12 – 23): Markets continue to iterate into tighter bands (called flags). After consolidation they tend to resume their earlier upward trends. Moreover, having Larry Kudlow as the new Chief Economist is good news for the markets. Buy now. Consider again the ETF funds FBT, SOXX and ITA. Add to them FTX and PSI. If you still do not have KRE, buy it now. Stocks to consider are HCCI, MCRN, and CPSS. Good investing!
Week 4 (March 26 – 30):
Although the new normal is “New Trump Trade Policies = Positive TVIX Correlation”, this is still just noise and not something you trade on. Fundamentals for the intermediate and long-term still look good for earnings growth and the state of the economy. True, a trade war could bring the bull market to an end, but this is only a theoretical possibility. More likely negotiations will follow and there will be no trade war. This is mostly because Trump’s emphasis on the state of the stock market is a limiting factor to his anti-trade policies. In other words, anti-supply trade policies that contradict previous pro supply side policies also put Trump in the position where anti-trade noise leads to the reduction or reversal of anti-trade noise. The market is “street smart” enough to adjust to this circumstance.
I am back from La La Land where I took my daughter and her friends to Laguna beach.
Unfortunately, it was too cold for them to swim.
I also helped a girl decide on a new swim suite . . . but, got in trouble with the wife for that one.
Still, gota like California.
Growth stocks to consider are KELYA, AEL, CC, PATK, SGH, and USAK. A tech oriented ETF with growth prospects is ETV which yields 8.8%. An oversold energy/utility stock is CRIUF which now yields about 11%. Growth ETFs are FTXL, PSI, PPA, and XAR. Mutual funds to consider include: OPGSX, INIVX, BGETX, and VGPMX. Good Investing!
