August 24: Inflation still appears as mostly a supply-side phenomenon which is exacerbated from time-to-time by strict, zero Coved tolerance from the Chinese government that leads to shipping port shutdowns. September will see supplemental unemployment end in all States which will ameliorate the supply-side constraints in the U.S. to some degree. The Delta variant is… Continue reading August Stock and Fund Picks
Tag: Beat the Market
January 2020 Stock and Fund Picks
All policies have negative consequences. The hope is that positive consequences will outweigh those that are negative. For example, in the late 1990s Pres. Clinton placed recruitment restrictions on the CIA that caused its staff to shrink by half. Clinton also cut CIA and military funding substantially. The 9/11 terrorist attacks followed. Bill Clinton also… Continue reading January 2020 Stock and Fund Picks
June 2019 Stock and Fund Picks
Week 1 (June 3 – 7): Tariffs on Mexico that would go in effect on June 12 will be bad for Mexico, US companies staying competitive by operating in Mexico and the stock market, dovish Fed or not. Estimates of the cost of tariffs on consumers is now twice as much as the benefit from… Continue reading June 2019 Stock and Fund Picks
May Stock and Fund Picks
Week 1 – 2 (May 1 – 10): Trump trade woe’s continue. When companies buy high bang-per-buck (Productivity divided by cost) resources in foreign countries like Mexico, such as with our automobile industry, it maximizes output per cost or, equivalently, minimizes cost per unit of output. In other words, our automobile industry becomes more competitive… Continue reading May Stock and Fund Picks
March Stock and Fund Picks
Weeks 1 – 2: Looks like things have decided to cool off and things are relatively stable. Trump and the Chinese can still cause a major disruption so be prepared. Since you can’t know when things might change and it is political rather than fundamental it is probably best to plan on holding through any… Continue reading March Stock and Fund Picks
November Stock and Fund Picks
Week 1 (Nov. 1 – 9): The October sell-off has created opportunities for stock pickers. On the other hand, Friday’s hot inflation read means the market is now sure of a Dec. Fed rate hike. As Warren Buffet warns, “Interest rates are like gravity to stocks.” A more mechanical rationale for this phenomenon is that… Continue reading November Stock and Fund Picks
October Stock and Fund Picks
Week 1 (October 1 – 5): Fed interest rate hikes are the new source of market volatility. Cramer says that he doesn’t like this market. Given his experience, that’s a big red flag. Cramer also suggests that the sell-off has begun. Another red flag. Generally, stocks do well during rising rates until, of course,… Continue reading October Stock and Fund Picks
September Market Beating Stock Picks
Week 1 (Sept. 4 – 7): Trade is still a negative while just about everything else (eg., domestic economy and GDP growth, relatively low real interest rates, and company earnings) are positives. On a different issue, I don’t get why the NFL allows anyone to take a knee during the national anthem. There are a… Continue reading September Market Beating Stock Picks
August Market Beating Stock Picks
Week 2 (August 13 – 17): Back from 3 plus weeks of vacation. The office staff is back to work. Here are some pictures taken during my time away from my computer. Guess where? Growth stocks to consider: SNDR, VRS, VSI, and ZBRA. SNDR pays a small dividend. New dividend growth stocks for your retirement… Continue reading August Market Beating Stock Picks
Free Market Beating Stock Picks for July
Week 1 (July 2 – 6): If Pres. Trump makes a trade deal to reduce tariffs (taxes on imports) it will be pro supply side along with the earlier tax cuts and deregulation. If he stays protectionist, economic growth will slow, both domestically and globally. The later problem may even lead to a recession. … Continue reading Free Market Beating Stock Picks for July