All business cycle monitoring sites from Seeking Alpha indicate an ongoing expansion that is simply slowing down due to a lack of private sector investment, industrial production, and anti-supply-side protectionist trade policies. Instead of cyclical indicators only, I prefer to also look at the misery index as an indicator of a potential recession. The misery… Continue reading February Stock and Fund Picks
Tag: Best Stocks
July Stock and Fund Picks
Week 1 (July 1 – 5): As opposed to just kicking the can down the road and giving the Chinese spy company Huawei a life-line, the bullish bias in the market has interpreted the trade truce with China as an actual trade deal . As you know, I’m not in favor of doing any business… Continue reading July Stock and Fund Picks
June 2019 Stock and Fund Picks
Week 1 (June 3 – 7): Tariffs on Mexico that would go in effect on June 12 will be bad for Mexico, US companies staying competitive by operating in Mexico and the stock market, dovish Fed or not. Estimates of the cost of tariffs on consumers is now twice as much as the benefit from… Continue reading June 2019 Stock and Fund Picks
May Stock and Fund Picks
Week 1 – 2 (May 1 – 10): Trump trade woe’s continue. When companies buy high bang-per-buck (Productivity divided by cost) resources in foreign countries like Mexico, such as with our automobile industry, it maximizes output per cost or, equivalently, minimizes cost per unit of output. In other words, our automobile industry becomes more competitive… Continue reading May Stock and Fund Picks
December Stock and Fund Picks
Week 1 (Dec. 1 – 9): The market is trying to price in the Trump trade protectionism policies. It has been doing that since January of this year. The only other politician advocating trade protectionism is Bernie Sanders. This tells you that such a negative supply-side policy is going to be no good. Let’s hope… Continue reading December Stock and Fund Picks
November Stock and Fund Picks
Week 1 (Nov. 1 – 9): The October sell-off has created opportunities for stock pickers. On the other hand, Friday’s hot inflation read means the market is now sure of a Dec. Fed rate hike. As Warren Buffet warns, “Interest rates are like gravity to stocks.” A more mechanical rationale for this phenomenon is that… Continue reading November Stock and Fund Picks
October Stock and Fund Picks
Week 1 (October 1 – 5): Fed interest rate hikes are the new source of market volatility. Cramer says that he doesn’t like this market. Given his experience, that’s a big red flag. Cramer also suggests that the sell-off has begun. Another red flag. Generally, stocks do well during rising rates until, of course,… Continue reading October Stock and Fund Picks
September Market Beating Stock Picks
Week 1 (Sept. 4 – 7): Trade is still a negative while just about everything else (eg., domestic economy and GDP growth, relatively low real interest rates, and company earnings) are positives. On a different issue, I don’t get why the NFL allows anyone to take a knee during the national anthem. There are a… Continue reading September Market Beating Stock Picks
August Market Beating Stock Picks
Week 2 (August 13 – 17): Back from 3 plus weeks of vacation. The office staff is back to work. Here are some pictures taken during my time away from my computer. Guess where? Growth stocks to consider: SNDR, VRS, VSI, and ZBRA. SNDR pays a small dividend. New dividend growth stocks for your retirement… Continue reading August Market Beating Stock Picks
Free Market Beating Stock Picks for July
Week 1 (July 2 – 6): If Pres. Trump makes a trade deal to reduce tariffs (taxes on imports) it will be pro supply side along with the earlier tax cuts and deregulation. If he stays protectionist, economic growth will slow, both domestically and globally. The later problem may even lead to a recession. … Continue reading Free Market Beating Stock Picks for July