State of the Economy: Best not to overpredict. Unexpected events can never be predicted and they are what cause markets to move the most in the short-run. We know that leading economic indicators are in recession territory but other factors such as labor market growth and earnings are merely slowing. Contradictory data tells us nothing… Continue reading November 2022 Stock and Fund Picks
Category: Economic Theory
October Stock and Fund Picks
Before I list my picks and review the state of the economy, I’d like to add a comment on trade protectionism and the negotiation strategy of the Trump administration with China. The problem is that China is an unfair trader and its communist government’s strategy is to steal as much technology as is possible. Something… Continue reading October Stock and Fund Picks
December Stock and Fund Picks
Isolationism and increasing inefficiency that results will continue to push output down. Already it has reduced investment, which in turn reduces productivity growth, as well as both exports and imports which account for about 40 – 45% of our economy. Let me illustrate how this works. Two nearby islands routinely trade with each other because… Continue reading December Stock and Fund Picks
Pugonomics 101 for Investors
I have two pugs. I am not their master. Instead, I work for them. They are well cared for and appear grateful. this is not trickle down economics, for which, by the way, there is no existing theory. Given the arrogance and outright laziness of my pugs it seems more like trickle up economics.… Continue reading Pugonomics 101 for Investors
Flow Theory of the Stock Market
Flow theory is about the flow of money into and out of stocks, economic sectors, and the overall stock market. I am going to focus on the overall stock market. Flows into and out of the stock market occur for different reasons in the longer-run period (greater than 1 or 2 years) versus the shorter-run… Continue reading Flow Theory of the Stock Market