Week 1 April is starting off well. Still have doubts about Trump’s trade policies, especially towards Mexico. The China problem centers around forced technology transfer, or simply technology theft by a communist government. We should never have let any of that happen. But Mexico is simply a producer with higher bang- per- buck labor resources. … Continue reading April Stock and Fund Picks
Tag: economic analysis
November Stock and Fund Picks
Week 1 (Nov. 1 – 9): The October sell-off has created opportunities for stock pickers. On the other hand, Friday’s hot inflation read means the market is now sure of a Dec. Fed rate hike. As Warren Buffet warns, “Interest rates are like gravity to stocks.” A more mechanical rationale for this phenomenon is that… Continue reading November Stock and Fund Picks
October Stock and Fund Picks
Week 1 (October 1 – 5): Fed interest rate hikes are the new source of market volatility. Cramer says that he doesn’t like this market. Given his experience, that’s a big red flag. Cramer also suggests that the sell-off has begun. Another red flag. Generally, stocks do well during rising rates until, of course,… Continue reading October Stock and Fund Picks
Free Stock Picks for June 2018
Week 1 (June 1 – 8): The economy is just right. Short-term calm and low volatility usually create a “smart-money” outflow and a short-term dip that you should buy . . . maybe by tomorrow. Consider the growth stocks GTES, and OFG. Look at the ETFs: XLI, PSCI, and XSD. Good dividend growth… Continue reading Free Stock Picks for June 2018
May Market Beating Stock and Fund Picks
Week 1 (May 1 – 4): Uncertainty about the Fed, a flattening yield curve, and China trade issues are offsetting strong earnings and a higher rate of economic growth. The result is a trading range for stocks. Eventually, something must give and the market will head one way or another. Hopefully, that will be another… Continue reading May Market Beating Stock and Fund Picks
Pugonomics 101 for Investors
I have two pugs. I am not their master. Instead, I work for them. They are well cared for and appear grateful. this is not trickle down economics, for which, by the way, there is no existing theory. Given the arrogance and outright laziness of my pugs it seems more like trickle up economics.… Continue reading Pugonomics 101 for Investors
March 2018 Stock State
March 1st Update: Headwinds from trade wars are on the way. This, as indicated in the February Stock State, is our biggest stock market worry. Why are tariffs on steal and aluminum such a problem? Trade theory, not stock market talking heads, is the answer. Tariffs on specific commodities imposed by a large nation such… Continue reading March 2018 Stock State
February 2018 Stock State
February 12 update: The correction or pull-back of about 10% is running its course. Much of the attention focused on headwinds created by higher interest rates (as the 10 year government bond heads for 2.9% is an overstated concern. Imagine you are flying a small airplane into a headwind. The FED has helped you (the… Continue reading February 2018 Stock State
February Stock and Fund Picks
Week 1 (Feb. 1 – 9): I am always amused when I hear a stock described as “poised for explosive growth.” It’s a catchy line but the same holds for any stock in the market. Odds are, you will be right some of the time. The only thing I will say about my stock picks… Continue reading February Stock and Fund Picks
Activist Monetary Policy Conundrum
Recently, many economic and FED commentators point out that if we have a recession we will need a tighter FED balance sheet and higher interest rates in order to fight the recession using stimulative monetary policy. At the same time, others have pointed out that if interest rates get to high it will cause a… Continue reading Activist Monetary Policy Conundrum