March 1st Update: Headwinds from trade wars are on the way. This, as indicated in the February Stock State, is our biggest stock market worry. Why are tariffs on steal and aluminum such a problem? Trade theory, not stock market talking heads, is the answer. Tariffs on specific commodities imposed by a large nation such… Continue reading March 2018 Stock State
Category: Current State of the Economy
February 2018 Stock State
February 12 update: The correction or pull-back of about 10% is running its course. Much of the attention focused on headwinds created by higher interest rates (as the 10 year government bond heads for 2.9% is an overstated concern. Imagine you are flying a small airplane into a headwind. The FED has helped you (the… Continue reading February 2018 Stock State
January 2018 Stock State
The economy continues to do well, but not too well. That is, it is chugging along rather steadily but not so fast as to suggest closing in on the next recession any time soon. The stock market is not always in lock step with the economy because it rests on not only fundamentals, but such… Continue reading January 2018 Stock State
December 2017 Stock State
December 1, 2017 update: Do not follow the herd, especially if it appears panicky. You’ll just run off the cliff with everybody else. If spent all your cash because you thought this correction would be like previous ones that were short in duration, just act like Warren Buffett and be patient. All good things come… Continue reading December 2017 Stock State
November 2017 Stock State
November 15 update: We keep doing what works until it doesn’t. Be careful about buying on small dips while assuming that tomorrow the market will upon on the upside. This may quit working with tomorrow becoming another down day. This is characteristic of a stock market that rolls-over into a larger correction . . .… Continue reading November 2017 Stock State
October 2017 Stock State
September 6 update: Investors can probably ignore this. Trades pay attention. High rates of growth, the higher the worse, combined with complacent or Pollyanna investors along with stock analysts that give in to assuming an unrelenting upward trending stocks is a circumstance that inevitably leads to a correction. Listen to Cramer (Mad Money). He has… Continue reading October 2017 Stock State
September 2017 Stock State
September 8 update: Earnings are strong as are profits and the underlying economy. Yet there are potential problems with which we must consider. First, it is September. Typically, stocks do well up to about the middle of September and then tend to sell off such that the month ends in the red. Some technical analysts… Continue reading September 2017 Stock State
August Stock State: Market Outlook and Strategy
August 9, 2017 update: Two things that matter: 1) August is typically a negative month for stocks. 2) Geopolitical risk related to N. Korea causes investors to take money out of the market. You can choose to ride out August if you believe, like I do, that the last quarter will reverse course and be… Continue reading August Stock State: Market Outlook and Strategy
July Stock State: Outlook and Market Strategy
Outlook and Strategy for June 7, 2017. Sell-offs or market adjustment in high-flying tech and semiconductors is noticable. Stocks such as ATVI, EA, ADBE, RHT, ADSR, MU, PYPL, NVDA, LRCX, and AVGO have had the fastest run-up and are at the greatest risk for a sell-off or correction. Howver, the bigger name FAAMG stocks that… Continue reading July Stock State: Outlook and Market Strategy
June Stock State: Market Strategy and Outlook
June 2, 2017 update: Markets are gaining momentum. As of this Thursday and Friday, a risk-on appetite from strong labor market data and positive expectations among businesses and consumers led to put more money into smaller, riskier growth stocks. This is a good sign. Moreover, it reinforces the prospects for a continuation of the current… Continue reading June Stock State: Market Strategy and Outlook