Week 1 (Nov. 1 – 9): The October sell-off has created opportunities for stock pickers. On the other hand, Friday’s hot inflation read means the market is now sure of a Dec. Fed rate hike. As Warren Buffet warns, “Interest rates are like gravity to stocks.” A more mechanical rationale for this phenomenon is that… Continue reading November Stock and Fund Picks
Tag: risk reduction
March 2018 Stock State
March 1st Update: Headwinds from trade wars are on the way. This, as indicated in the February Stock State, is our biggest stock market worry. Why are tariffs on steal and aluminum such a problem? Trade theory, not stock market talking heads, is the answer. Tariffs on specific commodities imposed by a large nation such… Continue reading March 2018 Stock State
February Stock and Fund Picks
Week 1 (Feb. 1 – 9): I am always amused when I hear a stock described as “poised for explosive growth.” It’s a catchy line but the same holds for any stock in the market. Odds are, you will be right some of the time. The only thing I will say about my stock picks… Continue reading February Stock and Fund Picks
Activist Monetary Policy Conundrum
Recently, many economic and FED commentators point out that if we have a recession we will need a tighter FED balance sheet and higher interest rates in order to fight the recession using stimulative monetary policy. At the same time, others have pointed out that if interest rates get to high it will cause a… Continue reading Activist Monetary Policy Conundrum
January 2018 Stock State
The economy continues to do well, but not too well. That is, it is chugging along rather steadily but not so fast as to suggest closing in on the next recession any time soon. The stock market is not always in lock step with the economy because it rests on not only fundamentals, but such… Continue reading January 2018 Stock State
December 2017 Stock State
December 1, 2017 update: Do not follow the herd, especially if it appears panicky. You’ll just run off the cliff with everybody else. If spent all your cash because you thought this correction would be like previous ones that were short in duration, just act like Warren Buffett and be patient. All good things come… Continue reading December 2017 Stock State
November 2017 Stock State
November 15 update: We keep doing what works until it doesn’t. Be careful about buying on small dips while assuming that tomorrow the market will upon on the upside. This may quit working with tomorrow becoming another down day. This is characteristic of a stock market that rolls-over into a larger correction . . .… Continue reading November 2017 Stock State
July Stock State: Outlook and Market Strategy
Outlook and Strategy for June 7, 2017. Sell-offs or market adjustment in high-flying tech and semiconductors is noticable. Stocks such as ATVI, EA, ADBE, RHT, ADSR, MU, PYPL, NVDA, LRCX, and AVGO have had the fastest run-up and are at the greatest risk for a sell-off or correction. Howver, the bigger name FAAMG stocks that… Continue reading July Stock State: Outlook and Market Strategy
May 2017 Weekly Stock Picks
Busy moving my daughter to Los Angeles, CA this month and have gotten behind. The best I can do now is to combine the 1st and 2nd week’s stock picks for May into one set. These tickers are: ZIXI, BOTZ (a fund for robotics and AI), CELG, AEIS, and ABMD. I expect these to beat… Continue reading May 2017 Weekly Stock Picks
April 2017 Stock Pick Perfomance
Weekly stock picks clobbered the market yet again! Even so, the set of Base Stocks lagged the market a bit and as a result I am dropping two of my Base Stocks: IBM and GE. I am replacing these two dropped stocks with Shopify (SHOP). The following chart summarizes the Monthly Base Stock performance. April… Continue reading April 2017 Stock Pick Perfomance